Three million Kindle users by end of 2010, says analyst

[doreenjoy]

This analyst's predictions read like he's more of a PR person than an industry analasy. An impartial analyst looks at the industry as a whole and then ID's the major players.

[Sonist]

Originally Posted by igorsk

... Don't you think Amazon would say something if they really had more units sold than Sony?

Heh, or Amazon can cite the number of "e-readers sold" and include all the Sony units purchased through its store, as well as iRex, jetbook, Palm, etc.....

[ahi]

Originally Posted by JSWolf

Outside the US, ePub is the format of choice. So I cannot really see the Kindle line making inroads outside the USA. Also, as we get standardize formatting since most readers will have ADE with ePub, I do think Amazon's lack of ePub will hurt it in the long run.

Except for the countries where neither ePub nor any of the other reflow formats can support the local script. Of course, this is probably only 2-3 billion people, so it doesn't really matter.

- Ahi

[dmaul1114]

eReaders are such a small niche market really now it doesn't really matter what the "preferred" format is in other countries.

It's really only hardcore readers who are also tech savvy buying them for the most part. So Amazon (or someone else) could easily capture those markets by launching a device that gets a lot of hype and is super convenient and easy to use (which the Kindle gets currently with it's WIFI store).

Some one in another thread made the apt comparison of Apple with the iPod and using AAC when MP3 was the norm/preferred format.

The average, mainstream user doesn't know anything about, nor give a crap about, formats. They just buy whatever is hyped and easy to use.

All the stuff the tech nerds here want with formats, being able to edit books, etc. etc. won't matter one iota in determining what device/format becomes the norm in the mainstream in the long run.

[ahi]

Originally Posted by dmaul1114

eReaders are such a small niche market really now it doesn't really matter what the "preferred" format is in other countries.

My head a splode.

- Ahi

[dmaul1114]

Why explode? It's just a fact. Hardly anyone has bought them, so it's anyone's game.

Whoever makes a device that gets mainstream hype and is easy to use will win the ereader device and format wars regardless of what format they use.

A big reason I pretty much quit posting hear is this forum is the same crap over and over. Tech nerds who care about formats, being able to edit books, epub lovers etc. etc. thinking that they're needs are remotely indicative of joe six pack who decides the success or failure of every product that enters the market.

Those people don't care about formats, will never, ever edit an e-book regardless of how many they buy etc. etc. They'll buy whatever is hyped and "cool" to own and easy to use and never pay any attention to what format it uses etc.

Again, how many iPod owners know/knew they were buying AAC vs. MP3s and that they couldn't play them on most devices besides iPods (though that has lessened in recent years with more devices supporting non-DRMed AAC)?

It's a moot point, and the market is still ripe since you've got at most a few million people with eReaders out of 6-7 Billion people in the world. It's a tiny niche relative to things like DVDs, CDs, and even video game consoles. It's anyone (and any formats) game to win still.

[krischik]

Originally Posted by dmaul1114

They're just going to buy a device (a Kindle in this case) buy books from the attached store and be perfectly happy.

How do you explain the one Kindle user a day which asks for refund in the Mobipocket forums then? Well, at least there was one user a day when the forum was still open for support requests.

Originally Posted by Kali Yuga

I don't know why it's worked out that way, but it just doesn't seem to matter.

Because - like the iPod they just came at the right time with the right product.

Originally Posted by Kali Yuga

has put Sony in second place

In hate to repeat myself: Only in the US - Sony is not 2nd place in i.E. Germany or Switzerland - I doubt they are 2nd place world wide. And this is important when it comes to production costs. Larger productions batches usually result in lower prices.

Originally Posted by Kali Yuga

Yet the iPod still slaughtered the competition despite using an almost unknown format....

True - but the iPod was released world wide. What I a saying is that when Amazon finally arrives in Europe they will have missed there window of opportunity.

Martin

[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by krischik

How do you explain the one Kindle user a day which asks for refund in the Mobipocket forums then? Well, at least there was one user a day when the forum was still open for support requests.

Martin

Easy.

The people posting about their ereaders online aren't the average joe's who determine a product's success in the mainstream.

Anyone posting about it online falls in the niche of tech savvy, avid readers.

The people who determine mainstream success and failure of devices are those just buying whatever is hyped/cool to own and just using it without ever really reading up on it, posting about it online etc. etc.

Again, that's the folly of this site that drives me nuts. People like US will have no impact on the future of eBooks and eReaders. We are the small, nerdy, early adopting niche. It's the joe six packs who determine success and failure.

The iPod didn't win because of the nerdy, apple fanboy early adopters. It won when it became the cool device every college kid had to have and then spread to the cool "must have" tech device for the general population. The average iPod owner knew/knows little about DRM, AAC vs. MP3 etc.

And it will be the same with eBooks. Whatever is easy to use and becomes the cool "must have" device will win regardless of company, format of the ebooks, DRM scheme etc.

Originally Posted by krischik

True - but the iPod was released world wide. What I a saying is that when Amazon finally arrives in Europe they will have missed there window of opportunity.

Sorry, but no. The market is barley tapped, much less saturated. Again, it's just a few million tech savvy, book worms around the world who own an eReader. It's still anyone's game.

If Amazon can make the Kindle the cool "must have" device it can take over the world market. Or someone like Apple or somone else may beat them to the punch and take over the rest of the world and the US--where again, hardly anyone has an eReader.

It's anyone's game.