Jerry Pournelle on ebooks - Page 3

DaleDe · 11-09-2007, 01:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HappyMartin

Anyway this is all conjecture and we will see. I will be very surprised though if the iphone has any discernible impact on ebooks at all.

Particularly since Apple themselves don't even mention it. Or provide any kind of an eBook reader with the product. Any reading is only a by product of the browser, not the purpose. I too, am afraid the iphone is not the savior unless a champion can be found.

Dale

silvania · 11-09-2007, 08:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bowerbird

silvania said:
> The math is left as an exercise to the reader

this reader would rather have a small percentage of a large number
than a large percentage of a small number. your mileage may vary.

-bowerbird

Well, it all depends on how small and how large those percentages and numbers are.

For sony the percentage is not only large, it's the largest possible: 100%. The number of units is probably somewhere in the range of 20 to 50 thousand. In addition, since they specifically bought a dedicated ebook reader, they are likely to read more ebooks than even the average ebook consumer. This was definitely true of the old gemstar devices.

For iphone the percentage is very unlikely to be more than a fraction of one percent of about 2 million units. A number very likely to be less than 20 to 50 thousand. And since essentially nobody bought the iphone to read ebooks (evidence: there is no ebook reader on the iphone) you would not expect even those small numbers of people to be especially big consumers of ebooks.

Final point: how many of the Sony buyers *also* own an iphone? Probably a good number of them since among sony buyers are most likely a goodly percentage of gadget-freaks (like me). And which device do they read ebooks on in that case?

nekokami · 11-09-2007, 09:20 AM

The only way I could see the iPhone suddenly taking off as an ebook reader device would be if Apple decides to distribute ebook reader software and advertise ebooks on the phone itself, e.g. bestsellers or the Oprah picks or something like that. It would be clever of Apple to do a deal with MobiPocket, but I doubt it will happen, and as much as Apple likes selling content, I think they're more likely to focus on selling audio and video files to their phone users. They have an existing channel for that and it's where the money is.

yvanleterrible · 11-09-2007, 09:58 AM

One point I'll add in favor of the iPhone is that I always carry 3 books on my iPod nano. That said if I had an iPhone I would do the same. But this is still a hard core thingie with people who read a lot compared to the norm!

An other point against though is that we still don't know if Apple will consider ebooks. For the moment they are willfully brushed aside and prevented to be easily used on all Apple portable devices. What would completely negate Pournelle's comments is that Apple could come up with its own reading device or an iSlate; crossover between computer, tablet and iPod. Who'd need the iPhone for reading then? (Full time not occasionnal)

For someone to try reading on an iPhone would be a one time deed at most. Not enough to justify investing in a book market. In opposition, someone buying a dedicated reader will get hundreds of books. To compound this Sony has managed to capture(again) a readership with a DRM assured site. Not only have they sales of devices but they assured themselves of future book sales. How popular will it maintain itself is still up for further discussion.

bowerbird · 11-09-2007, 12:20 PM

silvania said:
> Well, it all depends on how small and how large those percentages and numbers are.

i thought you had left that as an exercise up to me...

-bowerbird

NatCh · 11-09-2007, 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HappyMartin

emergency entertainment

Does this phrase strike anyone else as a sadly ironic commentary on our society?

delphidb96 · 11-10-2007, 10:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NatCh

Does this phrase strike anyone else as a sadly ironic commentary on our society?

Not at all! Rather, it's a glowing compliment that our society has developed far enough that a large majority of the population has enough *free* time to require entertainment - emergency or otherwise! (Just trying to see the glass as full, here.)

Derek

yvanleterrible · 11-10-2007, 11:32 AM

People today get bored so easily as to feel pain when not occupied at something. They hate being alone with themselves although they cringe at the thought of having to meet others. Go figure. Emergency entertainment says it all.

HappyMartin · 11-13-2007, 05:24 AM

Well shoot me down in flames why don't you all. The comment 'emergency entertainment' was made tongue in cheek actually so I don't mind. I agree with the sentiments expressed about our society needing constant entertainment, thats why no TV in my house and why my wife and I meditate between 1 and 2 hours a day.

Still, it happens that I have the privilege of photographing "important people who think nothing of keeping me waiting an hour or two. I can stare into space or I can read. Reading allows me to be more polite after being kept waiting.

yvanleterrible · 11-13-2007, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HappyMartin

Well shoot me down in flames why don't you all. The comment 'emergency entertainment' was made tongue in cheek actually so I don't mind. I agree with the sentiments expressed about our society needing constant entertainment, thats why no TV in my house and why my wife and I meditate between 1 and 2 hours a day.

Still, it happens that I have the privilege of photographing "important people who think nothing of keeping me waiting an hour or two. I can stare into space or I can read. Reading allows me to be more polite after being kept waiting.

Oh, I hope you didn't take this the wrong way Martin!

I posted not to blast you but to comment on this, because your view was so perceptive as to galvanise together the same series of observations that I also made. In one simple comment you managed to describe a whole 'malaise' about a good part of community living. From that expression I was able to wander through all those facts and trace to one origin... fear.

I really think this expression should be kept! Now how could it be brought to a larger broadcast? You know it could be thesis matter.

HappyMartin · 11-13-2007, 08:59 AM

I do understand. I think it sad how fearful people are to be on their own with their thoughts.

NatCh · 11-13-2007, 11:01 AM

I've known a lot of entertainment junkies that give me cause to wonder if they have any thoughts of their own to be alone with.

The drive to be entertained is something I've been thinking about lately. I think that's why the phrasing jumped out at me.

silvania · 11-16-2007, 08:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bowerbird

silvania said:
> Well, it all depends on how small and how large those percentages and numbers are.

i thought you had left that as an exercise up to me...

-bowerbird

I did leave it to you, but you got the excercise wrong, so like any good teacher I corrected your faulty math.

yvanleterrible · 11-16-2007, 09:28 AM

"The dead do not anwer"...

brecklundin · 01-03-2008, 07:04 AM

I so agree with Pournelle...I will admit I was weened on his original columns in Byte during my formative years as a developer and eventually a networking design/rescue guy. He has always had a unique almost intuitive ability to predict trends. SO my takes on his opinions might be a bit too willing to read between the lines in what he writes some days.

He has never been one to be a bandwagon sort...plus he has had millions of copies of his books sell. He has a, well, seasoned perspective on the industry from both the tech side as well as the evil underhanded world in which publishers dwell.

That said...he is right...he is looking at critical mass of devices has to make reading anywhere and any time a reality. Perhaps this is one reason reading has fallen out of favor anymore people do not want to carry books with the truckload of other crap we all carry around everyday.

Of course most of those folks who simply do not read books prolly voted for the Shrubbery the past two elections too. But I digress...

I posted the other day it's CONTENT portability will ultimately drive eBooks to become ubiquitous. So it is the availability of content that needs to rise up to meet the need of consumers with a wide variety of devices. I love the Kindle and I love the Sony 505, I think the Cybook Gen3 is right up there with them...and then the iLiad is in a field of it's own. But there is one simple thing lacking...publishers and content providers want to restrict people the a proprietary device. The device needs to simply be a tool...there are 1000's of different hammers a carpenter can choose from but they all can drive a nail, some just do certain aspects better then others. People need to be allowed to chose the device they want not the one they are told they will use.

eBooks must work on Palm OS systems, Kindle's, Sony's, Cybook, iLiad's, iPhones, iTouch...you get the idea...I think Pournelle's point is exactly that, no single device can dominate but rather the publishing industry needs to pull their collective heads out and work with the various reader software companies to make their newer copyrighted content available for every device you can think of....

You can always find Jerry's musings and ramblings on his website...

http://www.jerrypournelle.com

He has several recent comments on ebooks and the industry. And an interesting battle with one "darknet" site. Pournelle's site is, well, messy, as I suspect his desk is too...hehehehe...but he is still as sharp as ever...or maybe I am somewhat more dim witted then I once was...I prefer to think it's the former over the latter.

11-13-2007, 08:59 AM	#41
HappyMartin Martin Kristiansen Posts: 1,546 Karma: 8480958 Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Johannesburg Device: Kindle International Ipad 2	I do understand. I think it sad how fearful people are to be on their own with their thoughts. Last edited by HappyMartin; 11-14-2007 at 12:42 AM. Reason: spelling

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Jerry E-Book (Italy)	brudigia	News	11	06-29-2010 12:14 PM
Jerry Cotton als ebook?	violetta	E-Books	8	05-05-2010 09:01 AM
Jerry Pournelle on the Kindle DX	wallcraft	News	21	05-13-2009 09:06 PM
10 books by Jerry Pournelle for $20	pdurrant	Deals and Resources (No Self-Promotion or Affiliate Links)	10	10-27-2008 07:14 AM
Jerry Pournelle has a Kindle	petermillard	Amazon Kindle	9	01-31-2008 11:46 AM

11-09-2007, 09:20 AM	#33
nekokami fruminous edugeek Posts: 6,745 Karma: 551260 Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Northeast US Device: iPad, eBw 1150	The only way I could see the iPhone suddenly taking off as an ebook reader device would be if Apple decides to distribute ebook reader software and advertise ebooks on the phone itself, e.g. bestsellers or the Oprah picks or something like that. It would be clever of Apple to do a deal with MobiPocket, but I doubt it will happen, and as much as Apple likes selling content, I think they're more likely to focus on selling audio and video files to their phone users. They have an existing channel for that and it's where the money is.

11-09-2007, 09:58 AM	#34
yvanleterrible Reborn Paper User Posts: 8,616 Karma: 15446734 Join Date: May 2006 Location: Que Nada Device: iPhone8, iPad Air	One point I'll add in favor of the iPhone is that I always carry 3 books on my iPod nano. That said if I had an iPhone I would do the same. But this is still a hard core thingie with people who read a lot compared to the norm! An other point against though is that we still don't know if Apple will consider ebooks. For the moment they are willfully brushed aside and prevented to be easily used on all Apple portable devices. What would completely negate Pournelle's comments is that Apple could come up with its own reading device or an iSlate; crossover between computer, tablet and iPod. Who'd need the iPhone for reading then? (Full time not occasionnal) For someone to try reading on an iPhone would be a one time deed at most. Not enough to justify investing in a book market. In opposition, someone buying a dedicated reader will get hundreds of books. To compound this Sony has managed to capture(again) a readership with a DRM assured site. Not only have they sales of devices but they assured themselves of future book sales. How popular will it maintain itself is still up for further discussion.

11-09-2007, 12:20 PM	#35
bowerbird Banned Posts: 269 Karma: -273 Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: los angeles	silvania said: > Well, it all depends on how small and how large those percentages and numbers are. i thought you had left that as an exercise up to me... -bowerbird

11-10-2007, 11:32 AM	#38
yvanleterrible Reborn Paper User Posts: 8,616 Karma: 15446734 Join Date: May 2006 Location: Que Nada Device: iPhone8, iPad Air	People today get bored so easily as to feel pain when not occupied at something. They hate being alone with themselves although they cringe at the thought of having to meet others. Go figure. Emergency entertainment says it all.

11-13-2007, 05:24 AM	#39
HappyMartin Martin Kristiansen Posts: 1,546 Karma: 8480958 Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: Johannesburg Device: Kindle International Ipad 2	Well shoot me down in flames why don't you all. The comment 'emergency entertainment' was made tongue in cheek actually so I don't mind. I agree with the sentiments expressed about our society needing constant entertainment, thats why no TV in my house and why my wife and I meditate between 1 and 2 hours a day. Still, it happens that I have the privilege of photographing "important people who think nothing of keeping me waiting an hour or two. I can stare into space or I can read. Reading allows me to be more polite after being kept waiting.

11-13-2007, 11:01 AM	#42
NatCh Gizmologist Posts: 11,615 Karma: 929550 Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Republic of Texas Embassy at Jackson, TN Device: Pocketbook Touch HD3	I've known a lot of entertainment junkies that give me cause to wonder if they have any thoughts of their own to be alone with. The drive to be entertained is something I've been thinking about lately. I think that's why the phrasing jumped out at me.

11-16-2007, 09:28 AM	#44
yvanleterrible Reborn Paper User Posts: 8,616 Karma: 15446734 Join Date: May 2006 Location: Que Nada Device: iPhone8, iPad Air	"The dead do not anwer"...

01-03-2008, 07:04 AM	#45
brecklundin Banned Posts: 1,906 Karma: 15348 Join Date: Jun 2007 Device: mine	I so agree with Pournelle...I will admit I was weened on his original columns in Byte during my formative years as a developer and eventually a networking design/rescue guy. He has always had a unique almost intuitive ability to predict trends. SO my takes on his opinions might be a bit too willing to read between the lines in what he writes some days. He has never been one to be a bandwagon sort...plus he has had millions of copies of his books sell. He has a, well, seasoned perspective on the industry from both the tech side as well as the evil underhanded world in which publishers dwell. That said...he is right...he is looking at critical mass of devices has to make reading anywhere and any time a reality. Perhaps this is one reason reading has fallen out of favor anymore people do not want to carry books with the truckload of other crap we all carry around everyday. Of course most of those folks who simply do not read books prolly voted for the Shrubbery the past two elections too. But I digress... I posted the other day it's CONTENT portability will ultimately drive eBooks to become ubiquitous. So it is the availability of content that needs to rise up to meet the need of consumers with a wide variety of devices. I love the Kindle and I love the Sony 505, I think the Cybook Gen3 is right up there with them...and then the iLiad is in a field of it's own. But there is one simple thing lacking...publishers and content providers want to restrict people the a proprietary device. The device needs to simply be a tool...there are 1000's of different hammers a carpenter can choose from but they all can drive a nail, some just do certain aspects better then others. People need to be allowed to chose the device they want not the one they are told they will use. eBooks must work on Palm OS systems, Kindle's, Sony's, Cybook, iLiad's, iPhones, iTouch...you get the idea...I think Pournelle's point is exactly that, no single device can dominate but rather the publishing industry needs to pull their collective heads out and work with the various reader software companies to make their newer copyrighted content available for every device you can think of.... You can always find Jerry's musings and ramblings on his website... http://www.jerrypournelle.com He has several recent comments on ebooks and the industry. And an interesting battle with one "darknet" site. Pournelle's site is, well, messy, as I suspect his desk is too...hehehehe...but he is still as sharp as ever...or maybe I am somewhat more dim witted then I once was...I prefer to think it's the former over the latter.

Advert

Advert