Prediction for 2011 from Smashwords Founder

[leebase]

Originally Posted by Ankh

With all due respect, I asked for specific marketing strategies that work today, that belong to the category that can be delivered only by the professionals. Please be precise.
?

Do you think best sellers "just happen"? I don't know all the different ways publishers market books. I simply dont see how ebooks eliminate the need for marketing. Do you?

Lee

[elcreative]

Publish it...

Originally Posted by Ankh

What was the last thing done by the professional that has influenced you to buy the book?

[GA Russell]

Originally Posted by Ankh

With all due respect, I asked for specific marketing strategies that work today, that belong to the category that can be delivered only by the professionals. Please be precise.

What was the last thing done by the professional that has influenced you to buy the book?

The one marketing tool used by publishers that worked for me in 2010 was the use of book clubs, specifically the Doubleday and the Quality Paperback Book Clubs.

The books looked interesting and the prices were low. I bought a lot to give as wedding, birthday and Christmas presents, as well as some for myself.

[Ankh]

Originally Posted by leebase

Do you think best sellers "just happen"? I don't know all the different ways publishers market books. I simply dont see how ebooks eliminate the need for marketing. Do you?

Of course ebook does not eliminate the need of marketing, that's definitely not the thing that I am claiming! Quite the opposite, the amount of new books is so overwhelming, that it must be an act of wizardry to present a brand new author to the saturated market.

But, like you, I simply can not identify an effort by the publishing industry marketing team that is reaching me lately. And that's very bad news for professionals, if I am correct. If they want to maintain the grip on the content delivery, if they want to maintain what it means "to be a published author", they need to figure out, and quick, how to market the goods.

Simply "publishing it" is not enough, not any more. Publishing ebook is easy, selling it is hard.

[SlowRain]

Originally Posted by jasonkchapman

Unfortunately, there is no mechanism that I can think of to overcome that, because it's something of a human failing. Too many people are eager to rate the judgment of others more highly than their own. It may be based on numbers (10 million people can't be wrong!) or some perceived expertise (movie reviewers) or that nebulous "cool" factor (celebrity endorsements).

Now that deserves some karma.

[JSWolf]

Originally Posted by screwballl

The only thing I partially disagree with is #6, prices dropping. The big publishers will still hold to their guns for another few years trying to grab every penny they can that they have rights to. This means while independent or self publishing means the author gets $3 per $4 book, the same authors may still only get $3 per $12 paper book. This also means they will continue to push paper books by keeping ebook prices artificially high, or purposely keep ebook prices high since there is no manufacturing or storage costs, and VERY low distribution costs making a much higher percentage of profit per ebook.

One perfect example of this is Hachette Book Group that publishes the Twilight series. Paperback of most of the books can be had for $4.99 new, yet the ebook is still $8.99.

There are lots of eBooks from the Agency 5 that are more expensive then the cheapest paper copy. And not all do drop in price when a lower cost paper edition is released. They told us that will happen. Yet it doesn't always happen.

[Elfwreck]

Originally Posted by jasonkchapman

Unfortunately, there is no mechanism that I can think of to overcome that, because it's something of a human failing. Too many people are eager to rate the judgment of others more highly than their own. It may be based on numbers (10 million people can't be wrong!) or some perceived expertise (movie reviewers) or that nebulous "cool" factor (celebrity endorsements).

I don't think that's quite it.

If I'm between books, I have to pick my next one to read somehow. I can either look for myself--spend potentially hours crawling through ebook stores and author pages and searching google by keyword + BOOKS trying to find one I think I'd like--or I can look for someone else's recommendation.

A random "Hey, I liked this" from a total stranger is meaningless. But a "Hey, I liked this" from 10,000 strangers is potentially useful--that tells me that whatever's in the book, lots of people enjoy it. I have a better chance of having something in common with some of 10,000 people than with one.

A regular book reviewer who reads lots of books might be able to tell me what he liked or disliked, and I can know whether I'd agree with that. If he hates it because it's packed with flowery prose and breathless romance, maybe I'll like it anyway. If he enjoys it because it's got snappy dialogue and veering plot twists, maybe I'll like that one, but my daughter probably won't.

Celebrity endorsements don't help unless I know something about the celebrity's taste. If Oprah recommends a book, that tells me nothing about its literary quality, but I'd expect that it's not packed with offensive sexism and it's not written in a multi-syllabic academic tone with 400 word paragraphs and extensive footnotes. I can be pretty sure I'd find it readable, if not to my tastes.

I find fandom mostly by rec lists, suggested reading compiled by other fans. I suspect we'll start seeing more and more of those for mainstream ebooks, as traditional marketing gets scattered and incoherent online.

[mldavis2]

There are some variables that haven't been considered in this interesting discussion.

eReaders have caused a blip in statistics. Many were given as gifts last month (I personally have recommended and 'sold' five), thus increasing potential awareness of eBook availability. On the other hand, many of us (myself included) have temporarily backed off of buying new texts in favor of reading classics that are now free. This will cause, perhaps, a lag in both eBook and pBook sales into 2011 from new eReader owners.

Demographics - in the U.S. and I suspect elsewhere, "baby boomers" are reaching retirement in huge numbers. More leisure time means more reading for many of us as a larger segment of the population from the pre-computer era turns to literature. As eyesight deterioration is offset by adjustable font sizes in eReaders, many of us are able to keep reading what we like and not rely on oversized print volumes from public libraries.

Online book lists should become more prevalent and serious readers will find reliable sources of recommended reading. I currently follow a few friends on Goodreads -- people I know and whose tastes I respect. Such independent lists are hard for spammers to crack effectively with bogus praise for a new author. On the other hand, such sites are mainly geared toward popular pBooks at this time, and users are not always able to get new e-Indie works entered and listed that they have read. Most review lists do indicate the number of responses, although popular tastes are not always mine. Extremely large lists such as Amazon can be statistically reliable, however.

Good thread!

[DaronFraley]

I work in the Info Tech world, and I see a lot of similarities between Linux and ebooks as tools of market disruption.

In the early 90s, Microsoft was king. What did we learn when Linux came onto the scene?

1. It is possible to make money with free. Ancillary products and services around Linux is now a multi-billion dollar industry. And you know what? Linux is EVERYWHERE. GPS units, computers, phones, wireless routers, manufacturing equipment, automobiles, etc.

2. Proprietary == Evil. Secret file formats, closed APIs, etc. . . . they are the bane of the IT industry. What works is to keep file formats OPEN, instead of making devices locked-down expensive pieces of equipment.

I completely agree with Mark Coker's assessments. In fact, I would also predict that DRM will die. People are not going to put up with it. Yes, there will always be some piracy. But in reality, when a publisher opts out of the DRM garbage and uses more open file formats, and then makes their ebook product available at a fair price, with ease of portability so the paying reader can read the material anywhere . . . That is when EVERYBODY wins. The publisher and author make more money because they sell more, the customer is happy, and piracy is a spit in the wind.

Just my opinion.

[CWatkinsNash]

Originally Posted by DaronFraley

I completely agree with Mark Coker's assessments. In fact, I would also predict that DRM will die.

I agree, and history agrees with this prediction. It wasn't so many years ago that many people thought that Apple would never get rid of the DRM on iTunes music files. If you wanted files from different retailers, you needed different players for all of them. Now we have several large companies offering DRM-free music. I no longer have to worry about what works with what when buying music, and my spending increased as a result.

It just takes time and enough people to say "this makes no sense".

[jasonkchapman]

Originally Posted by DaronFraley

2. Proprietary == Evil.

I'm about as strong a proponent of open source as there is, but I think this, while a popular opinion, is not really true. I think it's more accurate to say that Proprietary allows Evil behavior. It still requires evil action on the part of whoever controls the proprietary technology.

The distinction allows for the differentiation between open, as in published, and proprietary, as in owned. There are openly published technologies which are owned.

Yes, this seems like splitting hairs, but I think it's an important distinction because it puts the judgment back on the actors, as opposed to the tool. There are published proprietary formats that haven't (yet) been abused, though I don't doubt they will be eventually, if someone thinks there's a buck in it.

[Xenophon]

Originally Posted by CWatkinsNash

I agree, and history agrees with this prediction. It wasn't so many years ago that many people thought that Apple would never get rid of the DRM on iTunes music files. If you wanted files from different retailers, you needed different players for all of them. Now we have several large companies offering DRM-free music. I no longer have to worry about what works with what when buying music, and my spending increased as a result.

Time for a quick history lesson:
Apple originally asked the big labels for DRM-free music (back when the iTunes store was not yet announced, much less available). The labels said "H*ll no!" The outcome of the ensuing negotiation was that you could put your DRM-polluted music on up to SIX computers per account (later reduced to five), and on as many iPods as you wanted. If you read the press coverage at the time, most were amazed that Apple managed to get the big labels to be so consumer-friendly -- most had expected much much worse.

Fast-forward to a couple of years ago. Apple came back looking for DRM-free music. See the open letter to the music industry from Steve Jobs for more information. They cut a deal with one of the big labels. The other big labels were concerned that Apple had too much influence over the market, so they refused to allow Apple to sell DRM-free music. Instead, the N-1 big labels licensed all the other online music sellers to sell DRM-free; everyone except Apple. That lasted until Apple finally gave in on variable pricing (a year or so ago).

The key thing to note in this little trip down memory lane: Apple has consistently been arguing for DRM-free music. From the beginning. I make no claim that they did so because they're great guys, or because Steve J. cares about the consumer, or whatever. It's much simpler than that: DRM-restricted music creates hassles for Apple's customers and makes iDevices less attractive, and that hurts Apple's sales. DRM-free music improves the customer experience, which makes iDevices more attractive and thus increases Apple's sales. Given that Apple isn't a music label, it's been just plain good business practice for Apple to push hard for DRM-free music all along.

That's all a long-winded way of saying: it wasn't Apple that was the hold-up on getting rid of DRM on music on the iTunes store. It was the big record labels.

[elcreative]

Overall whilst DRM is a serious nuisance do we have to devalue the word "Evil," none of these things are evil... inconveniences, nuisances, a PITA whatever... evil is murder, genocide, torture, violence for fun etc. not DRM...

[jasonkchapman]

Originally Posted by elcreative

Overall whilst DRM is a serious nuisance do we have to devalue the word "Evil," none of these things are evil... inconveniences, nuisances, a PITA whatever... evil is murder, genocide, torture, violence for fun etc. not DRM...

I think it's far too late to dam that particular river. Besides, if Google's motto were just "Don't murder, rape, torture, or pillage," it would give them way too much leeway.

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Originally Posted by Ankh

With all due respect, I asked for specific marketing strategies that work today, that belong to the category that can be delivered only by the professionals. Please be precise.

Displaying your book in a big chain bookstore... these days, that's about the only thing the "professional" publisher can do that the small or amateur writer/publisher cannot. Every other marketing technique--media ads, recommendations, lists, social media, TV and library appearances--can be accomplished by anyone with enough time, influence and/or money.

And that's why the big pubs are holding onto the physical bookstores: It's the only area in which they can isolate themselves from other products.