E-books one of the biggest technology flops?

[TadW]

Adobe Digital Edition guy Bill McCoy just picked it up, too:

To me the real punch line of this article is that almost every listed flop has subsequently given rise to major technology successes. DAT tape paved the way for CDs, Newton for PDAs leading to smartphones, even the PC, Jr. arguably was a forerunner, at least conceptually, of the very successful iMac. The paperless office hasn't exactly come to pass, but I sure get a lot less inter-office mail and print a lot less than I used to, and I think Adobe Acrobat & PDF deserves at least some credit on that account.

Link: http://blogs.adobe.com/billmccoy/200..._an_allti.html

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Originally Posted by Bill McCoy

As far as the sucessor to e-Book failures: a large-scale digital publishing market is inevitable and it's starting to happen.

Gord Bless 'im!

And I officially like his comment about "the reassuring look and feel of paper" being elitist. Heck, YES, I'd like to see every child in the world with an e-book full of textbooks and entertainment, unlike today's world where many children never see a printed book. I still suspect that it will be the education industry that ultimately defines the aspects of the e-book, starting with the children.

[Azayzel]

Hah, guess I have to add one more comment on the poor reasoning used to justify not wanting to support this technology... the cost to publishers seen as loss in sales and potential/probable piracy. Something publishers need to realize is that whether or not they support digital editions, their books will still end up in that format regardless of if they want it to or not, especially if it's a successful/popular work. We were seeing this well before eInk devices cropped up and the whole debate about eBooks started, people have been scanning and converting books to whatever format they've wanted for quite some time; making the work freely available to those willing to look.

Secondly, simply being on physical paper does not keep the book from being pirated. At the college I use to work at, students from foreign countries would show up with $10-15 versions of $200+ books. They would say the books were freely available at a cheap price in their home country (Pakistan, India, China, etc.) and they could not afford the originals due to the expence. I also remember ordering a book off of Half.com a while back, this was due to the textbook's premium price at the university book store; needless to say the one I received for <1/5 the cost turned out to be a reprint made in China, replete with newspaper-type paper throughout. I still used it and saved quite a bit, but I wasn't about to toss it as I already paid for it assuming it was legit.

This is a losing arguement for publishers, the only thing they are missing out on right now is revenue they are ignoring by refusing to adapt with change. Common sense shows that commerce is Darwinian by nature, if you don't adapt or evolve you will surely perish (or at the very least subsist at the lowest basic level).

[Jorgen]

Eric Flint from Baen Publishers puts it like this:

"Electronic copyright infringement is something that can only become an "economic epidemic" under certain conditions. Any one of the following:

1) The products they want—electronic texts—are hard to find, and thus valuable.

2) The products they want are high-priced, so there's a fair amount of money to be saved by stealing them.

3) The legal products come with so many added-on nuisances that the illegal version is better to begin with.

Those are the three conditions that will create widespread electronic copyright infringement, especially in combination. Why? Because they're the same three general conditions that create all large-scale smuggling enterprises.

And . . .

Guess what? It's precisely those three conditions that DRM creates in the first place. So far from being an impediment to so-called online piracy, it's DRM itself that keeps fueling it and driving it forward."

Read the whole article!

[alex_d]

"We need to remember that the author is trying to get some shock value and interest from the article. So, when translated, "flop" means that it's not living up to a very high potential."

Well said.

The article is very much correct in saying LCD-based ebooks have been flops (too big, low res, poor battery). Eink ebooks aren't as much flops, but stuff like Sony Reader is still not living up to the potential (and it's also getting a lot more hype). Still, I think it's just a matter of time. The article would have been much more correct if it were written a year or two ago, and I think it'll be entirely wrong a year or two from now.

Right now... it sort of has a point, especially if you tone down the sensationalist wording. I'm just glad I can transform pdfs with pdfrasterfarian and now pdfread. This makes the sony reader very useably, if far from perfect. Otherwise, I'd be angrily yelling "flop" with the best of them.

P.S. The exact wording of the article is: "First we present the biggest flops, in which the hype-to-success ratio was farthest out of whack. The 14 products and technologies listed here weren't all bad. In fact, some were quite good but were either too far ahead of their time or were victims of overblown expectations."

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Originally Posted by alex_d

P.S. The exact wording of the article is: "First we present the biggest flops, in which the hype-to-success ratio was farthest out of whack. The 14 products and technologies listed here weren't all bad. In fact, some were quite good but were either too far ahead of their time or were victims of overblown expectations."

Well, that still doesn't sound like e-books to me. They've simply never been that strongly hyped. If hype-to-success is the formula, they should substitute it with Cold Fusion (the power source, not the database).

[KDawg]

There seem to be a lot of opinions that DRM has been a major stumbling block for ebooks. DRM hasn't stopped Apple from quickly becoming the fifth (fourth?) largest music vendor in the US. Most consumers don't know what DRM is and don't care. Unfortunate, but true.

It's hard for me to believe at this point that somebody will have to do for ebooks what Apple did for emusic, make it cheap and easy. People don't seem to mind paying an arm and a leg for an iPod if the songs are only $0.99.

I am a new Sony Reader owner so I'm interested in the growth of Sony Connect. I'd like to see a plot of the books sold on Sony Connect as a fraction of all books sold in the same markets over time. I'd also like to see the same plot for iTunes music.

[NatCh]

Originally Posted by KDawg

DRM hasn't stopped Apple from quickly becoming the fifth (fourth?) largest music vendor in the US.

No, it hasn't stopped Apple, but Apple is doing a little bit to stop DRM

[Liviu_5]

Originally Posted by KDawg

There seem to be a lot of opinions that DRM has been a major stumbling block for ebooks. DRM hasn't stopped Apple from quickly becoming the fifth (fourth?) largest music vendor in the US. Most consumers don't know what DRM is and don't care. Unfortunate, but true.

It's hard for me to believe at this point that somebody will have to do for ebooks what Apple did for emusic, make it cheap and easy. People don't seem to mind paying an arm and a leg for an iPod if the songs are only $0.99.

I am a new Sony Reader owner so I'm interested in the growth of Sony Connect. I'd like to see a plot of the books sold on Sony Connect as a fraction of all books sold in the same markets over time. I'd also like to see the same plot for iTunes music.

Comparisons between e-music and e-books are flawed because of the fact that for music it is very easy to put your cd's on a device like an Ipod, while for books it is very hard to put your p-books on a device like Sony. Were it to exist a magic box to take a p-book and digitize in 10 minutes in the format of your choice, that would be different and you would see more dedicated devices available.

Look at the statistics of itunes bought music/songs per ipod

And of course drm iTunes songs cost 99c, you can export to cd and reimport as drm free. Can you do this for Sony in a reasonable easy way?

And of course iTunes is moving away from drm...

But for e-books the main stumbling thing is still price/availablity in my opinion, with drm coming second and most likely dissapear sooner than later. The pricing thing though is not going away, since after all despite iTunes the music industry is suffering major revenue decline because acceptable digital pricing needs far more volume of sales than available right now (think it this way: when you buy a cd, you pay xx$ for essentially 1-2 songs, rarely more- you buy the songs directly you pay 2-3$...)

[ischeriad]

Originally Posted by Liviu_5

Comparisons between e-music and e-books are flawed because of the fact that for music it is very easy to put your cd's on a device like an Ipod, while for books it is very hard to put your p-books on a device like Sony. Were it to exist a magic box to take a p-book and digitize in 10 minutes in the format of your choice, that would be different and you would see more dedicated devices available.

I totally agree with that. You can have a CD at home and mp3 on the road etc...

A good thing would be if you could buy a paper book in the store and get the electronic version at the same time. People who don't care about the electronix text can forget about it, or, if they change their mind and buy a reader have a good starting point with their own library. This can get people interested in ebooks, and makes shopping for ebooks in brick and mortar stores possible. If you know what you want you can get your ebook online for a smaller price.
Yes, I don't know how to connect (no pun intended) the book with the ebook - for distribution (maybe you can download it from the publishers website in various formats) or DRM'ish to prevent separate sale to stay within "fair use" boundaries. But it is a nice Idea, and I would surely buy more books this way .

Originally Posted by Liviu_5

(think it this way: when you buy a cd, you pay xx$ for essentially 1-2 songs, rarely more- you buy the songs directly you pay 2-3$...)

I don't know your musical preferences, but most CDs that I own work the other way around: there are at most 1-2 tracks that I don't like...

[UncleDuke]

amazon may be the apple of the ebook world. they have the shopping part down.

for a flop a lot of people are starting to carry the sonys. today i saw 2 other people at lunch with one. once you got 1 you can spot 1.

[Liviu_5]

Originally Posted by ischeriad

I don't know your musical preferences, but most CDs that I own work the other way around: there are at most 1-2 tracks that I don't like...

Actually the 1-2 tracks thing comes from some music executives posting a recent article about the alarming drop-off in the music industry revenue. For myself, I would say that on average I really like about half the tracks on my cd's, but I am more into books than music so I do not really listen that much to music outside of my car.

It just annoys me to see iTunes given as such a shiny example of e-content success, when while undeniably relatively succesful it's just a sideshow for Apple to placate the music industry while selling tons of iPods (rememeber Rip, Mix, Burn??). But the operative word is relative, since the revenue generated by it is far away from compensating (and even forecasting to compensate) the steep drop off in cd-sales revenue.

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post...n-trouble.html

[alex_d]

There seem to be a lot of opinions that DRM has been a major stumbling block for ebooks. DRM hasn't stopped Apple from quickly becoming the fifth (fourth?) largest music vendor in the US.

Some people have addressed this, but their answer... ripping CD's??? come on!

iPod became popular because of Napster!

Without napster, a hard drive mp3 player would have had no reason to exist. Zero.

Without thousands of songs from napster, no one would even want to listen to music for hours each day!

Anyone who's bought an iPod now and gets all their songs from itunes/ripped cds is a poser (bought it just cuz everyone else did) and is not enjoying their iPod. I don't have research for this, but i'll bet $500 that those people listened to their toys for a few weeks and then threw them on a desk somewhere. Maybe... maybe.. they use them the one time a month they go to the gym.

If ebook readers become popular now, it will similarly be because of file sharing. If ebooks have not become popular it is not because 'drm strangled them,' it's because people don't know where to get bountiful, free content. Personally, I have figured this part out and it's the only reason i'm enjoying my Reader. Until other people do too, ebook devices will flop except as niche toys for the rich.

[alex_d]

a slightly more off-topic rant continued...

P.S. please cut it out with the "the music industry is dying, waah." Although it might surely seem logical that it would, the statistics saying that seem to be cooked up by people and not real. If you look at the arstechnica article, all the plotpoints are "estimates." The one that isn't, for 2005, actually shows a RISE in revenue. The industry has an incentive to make its outlook look grim and pitiful so that it could have an excuse to press measures that would get it more money.

P.P.S. I should mentin there is one piece of content I do pay for. I have a Scientific American Digital subscription mostly because they autocharge my card (admittedly, it's also because they give you drm-free pdfs). If i had to pay $3-$5 for each issue, I wouldn't (drm or not). Decision-time micropayments don't work! They just leave a bad feeling with you when you do it.

There are only two schemes that could work. Two schemes that would give the sort of limitless, zero-marginal-cost access to content that would make iPods and eBooks work. Either monthly subscriptions (which haven't took off mostly due to half-hearted marketing) or government-funded mandatory licensing (sounds commie but translates to digital libraries. it even has a benefit of reducing commercialism and promoting quality).

But even if you consider the "worst" possible case... that no one pays (more than 10 cents) for content EVER... the result is actually a lot better than one might imagine! They have tons of great music in China and Russia, and on top of that they have flashy concerts on TV every night featuring dozens of performers. Hell, it might even be better than our system. I can't say I can predict how it would work for books, but the lesson is:

Don't buy into the bullshit put forth by the rich and powerful (rich because they're powerful, powerful because they're rich) who are trying to save their own asses. Sometimes, even, they lie that their asses need saving so that they can marshal even more power (or at least not have to learn new tricks).

[KDawg]

Originally Posted by Liviu_5

Comparisons between e-music and e-books are flawed because of the fact that for music it is very easy to put your cd's on a device like an Ipod, while for books it is very hard to put your p-books on a device like Sony. Were it to exist a magic box to take a p-book and digitize in 10 minutes in the format of your choice, that would be different and you would see more dedicated devices available.

Comparisons between emusic and ebooks are not flawed, just difficult (I'll save my apples/oranges comparison for another day). Books are just skipping an intermediate format/storage/conversion step. Music and books are both content that people want to bring along with them and products consumers spend a fair amount of disposable income on. Both are marketed by industries run by greedy, short-sighted, fearful, people. Both industries are grappling with the future of digital content, the music industry being a little further down the path.

Although I love the screen and battery life of my Sony Reader, the rest of the Reader and the Connect software experience reminds me strongly of the Creative mp3 player and it's software I experimented with in the 90's.

In the case of Creative, I had plenty of content lying around my house in the form of CDs. I had to find a program to rip them and learn how to use it. There was no CDDB, or at least a ripper hooked to CDDB, so I had to fill in the mp3 tags myself. I had to calculate the megabytes of the music I wanted to listen to to see if it would fit and then drag-and-drop it to the Creative. The Creative had no way to manage playlists other than to manipulate the mp3 tags. It wasn't long before I gave up. Those of you with Readers know this drill.

Then the iPod came along. The genius of iPod is largely in iTunes. Rip/mix/burn and CDDB made it easy to import and manage music. Later, Apple added the iTunes Music Store and that's when emusic really took off. And as much as I despise DRM, the ease of purchase with the iTMS and the a-la-carte nature of the songs was occasionally irresistible.

Granted, Sony Connect has added to the Creative model by adopting the iTMS approach to selling books. And the books are generally cheaper (slightly) than their print equivalents at Amazon. So I gave it a try. I figured if a major company is going to try to make ebooks work and the Reader does have the great screen and battery life then I should support them.

I think Sony Connect/Reader will need a lot more to succeed, to avoid The Curse of the Flop. I don't think the average consumer cares too much about using Book Designer (great program!) to format Project Gutenberg texts. The average consumer wants easier software and cheaper books. But I'm a cynic about the wisdom of the average consumer and I think the vast majority of consumers don't know what DRM is and don't care. It will take years for consumers to understand content portability.

And I'm not too excited about EMI's decision to sell DRM-free music. EMI is still just one (large) company and still a member of the RIAA, an industry organization who thinks the best way to eradicate piracy is to sue it's customers indiscriminately. I think we've still got a long way to go before we emerge from the Dark Ages of DRM. But I believe eventually we will buy almost all of our content in digital form and DRM-free. The Enlightenment.