DOJ suing Apple over ebooks.

[ProfCrash]

The Publishers are going to have to adjust to the idea that as computers and tablets grow in usage and popularity, fewer people are going to want paper books. Todays generation is growing up playing on a Ipad or IPhone or netbook or something along those lines. They are going to end up using those devices to carry their text books by the time they are in high school because they are used to using them, the electronic devices are lighter then a backpack full of text books, and the books are going to be less expensive.

Imagine a high school or junior high in the US who can tell their kids to go to website X and download free versions of their classic literature instead of the school having to provide beat up paper version.

So while Publishers might be right that selling the EBook for less then the hardback version is going to hurt their business, the reality is that ebooks are going to grow in popularity and usage. They are going to see all paper versions move to a more niche market. Business wise, they are better off starting to figure that out now then waiting.

And I am sorry, but Amazon would have lost position with or without the Agency model. The Nook, Kobo and other new devices were on their way in. The fact that they could be used at the library in the US, when the Kindle could not, and internationally you need an EPub reader to easily use the library was huge for folks. Amazon could not sell books for those devices, at least not without some work and we know that most people would not put in that work. Amazon was going to lose market share any way.

I am tired of the folks who are whinging. The ebook increase has been a noticeable phenomenon for the last 5 years. Publishers have to change how they handle their business. Cut back on the advances, increase the royalties to make up for the loss of advances, and start prepping for the new format.

[stonetools]

Originally Posted by wodin

Have you ever heard such drivel?

Actually, if you rend the entire post, its not drivel at all. Its a forthright defense of the agency model. Cukor would agree that the publishers priced their books too high. You did have to read the ENTIRE post.

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by stonetools

Whenever people start talking airily about " changing workflows and strategies" without mentioning specifics,

Rest assured I do know what workflows are; in publishing and elsewhere.
But people who want specifics usually *pay* for them.

So I'll leave you with the generic version: if the BPHs don't lower their overhead, they be won't BPHs for much longer.
Toodles!

[BeccaPrice]

has this analysis by Charlie Stross been cited here yet? I found it even-handed and very interesting. There are lots of comments, but they, too, are worth reading.

http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog...-strategy.html

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by BeccaPrice

has this analysis by Charlie Stross been cited here yet? I found it even-handed and very interesting. There are lots of comments, but they, too, are worth reading.

http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog...-strategy.html

The dual monopoly/monopsony part is amusing. Takes a real evil genius to pull that off in full public view.

Stross' prescription sounds like fun.
I wish they would try it.
Not going to hold my breath for it, though.

[BeccaPrice]

A number of blogs I follow (Charlie Stross, per above, and Jane at Dear Author) are saying that the best way publishers can regain control of their books and do Amazon one in the eye would be to do away with DRM. it's definitely an idea whose time has come, but whether the Big 6 and the mufti-millionairs who run them will be able to see that is another question.

[kennyc]

Originally Posted by ProfCrash

...

I am tired of the folks who are whinging. The ebook increase has been a noticeable phenomenon for the last 5 years. Publishers have to change how they handle their business. Cut back on the advances, increase the royalties to make up for the loss of advances, and start prepping for the new format.

or fold their cards and go home.

[JoeD]

Originally Posted by stonetools

Er, No. DRM is important only to the techie 1 per cent. To the 99 per cent f customers price discounts etc. will be far more important. No other retailer can match Amazon on those- except maybe Apple and Google , who don't really want to.

DRM is only important to the techie 1 percent when the 99% are happy to shop at a single store. DRM becomes very important to the 99% when they want something from another store (but doesn't matter to the 1% who will buy/strip/convert)

Price doesn't matter one bit if you own a kindle and all the other stores that are selling the book cheaper than amazon (I take onboard your point that they may not be able to compete on price with amazon, but whilst DRM remains, that choice won't be on the table for them to make) are unable to provide a mobi format you can copy straight onto your kindle because publishers insist on DRM and those stores can't add kindle compatible DRM.

If amazon gain the lions share of device users with the kindle, how will other stores compete when they can't provide the book in a form you can just copy onto the device (or have emailed to your device). Publishers need to scrap DRM before that can occur.

[ProfCrash]

. And now we get to 2012, and ebooks are likely to hit 40% of total publishing sales by the end of this year, and are on the way to 60% within five years (per Tim Hely Hutchinson, CEO of Hachette UK). In five years, we've gone from <1% to >40%. That's disruption for you!

This is what I am talking about. The market is changing. Arguing that the Publishers and authors are screwed because e-books make less money is foolish because the market is shifting from paperbooks to ebooks. The Publishers can complain about it all they want but unless they change how they make their money, they are screwed. Figure out how to make ebooks work. Reduce the advances, increase the royalties. The cost of producing and distributing ebooks is smaller. That should translate into additional profit even at a lower price if they shift how they pay for books in advance.

By foolishly insisting on DRM, and then selling to Amazon on a wholesale basis, the publishers handed Amazon a monopoly on their customers—and thereby empowered a predatory monopsony.

If the major publishers switch to selling ebooks without DRM, then they can enable customers to buy books from a variety of outlets and move away from the walled garden of the Kindle store. They see DRM as a defense against piracy, but piracy is a much less immediate threat than a gigantic multinational with revenue of $48 Billion in 2011 (more than the entire global publishing industry) that has expressed its intention to "disrupt" them, and whose chief executive said recently "even well-meaning gatekeepers slow innovation" (where "innovation" is code-speak for "opportunities for me to turn a profit").

And so they will deep-six their existing commitment to DRM and use the terms of the DoJ-imposed settlement to wiggle out of the most-favoured-nation terms imposed by Amazon, in order to sell their wares as widely as possible.

If they don't, they're doomed. And all of us who like to read (or write) fiction get to live in the Amazon company town.

Yup.

[plib]

Originally Posted by stonetools

Er, No. DRM is important only to the techie 1 per cent. To the 99 per cent f customers price discounts etc. will be far more important

Er, No. DRM isn't important at all to the techie 1 per cent. It disappears 30 seconds after the book is downloaded.

But it is really important to the other 99% who can't borrow a book from the public library, read an epub they've bought in the mistaken impression that all ebooks are equal (for example a freebie/cheapie from BN) or decide to buy a Nook or a Kobo replacement and find out that their entire library just became a collection of ones and zeros. They're the 99% who are going to get really pissed off at whoever decided to impose DRM in the first place.

In addition there are plenty of people who might not know how to remove DRM but who are aware of it, and the issues it led to in the music world, and will know who to blame.

At the moment it doesn't matter to the 1% where a book is available or in what format, but it matters to the 99%. If the publishers had sat down and figured out a way to permanently tie their readers to their perceived biggest problem they probably couldn't have come up with a better way to do it than DRM.

[stonetools]

At the moment it doesn't matter to the 1% where a book is available or in what format, but it matters to the 99%. If the publishers had sat down and figured out a way to permanently tie their readers to their perceived biggest problem they probably couldn't have come up with a better way to do it than DRM.

Actually, it doesn't matter to the 99%. Maybe it should, but it totally doesn't .
Run this thought experiment. Let's say Apple says tomorrow,
" We will offer books in the iBookstore DRM free but at the same prices as before, i.e. higher than Amazon ".
According to you customers should run to iBooks. In reality, I expect only the techie handful will do that .

[JoeD]

Originally Posted by stonetools

Actually, it doesn't matter to the 99%. Maybe it should, but it totally doesn't .
Run this thought experiment. Let's say Apple says tomorrow,
" We will offer books in the iBookstore DRM free but at the same prices as before, i.e. higher than Amazon ".
According to you customers should run to iBooks. In reality, I expect only the techie handful will do that .

if another store did manage to compete on price with amazon and sell cheaper, it wouldn't matter as the 99% are locked into the kindle. The other stores cannot offer drm'd kindle compatible books.

The 99% may not know what drm is and I imagine most don't but they will know that the other stores are not selling kindle books.

Price will matter however if the books are drm free as then customers could buy from non amazon stores if the price was cheaper or they had a better loyalty program or some other incentive. Whilst drm remains though that is not even a remote possibility outside of those that can remove drm.

Whilst drm remains, the publishers are playing into the hands of the largest device owner, in this case amazon due to the lock in potential. Simply removing drm won't be a silver bullet though, but it will at least open the door for other retailers to target kindle owners.

[ScotiaBurrell]

People like shopping with Amazon. Is there better experience today?

[sabredog]

Interesting article

[Dagdapublishing]

Quite interesting. Now, I'm new to this whole ebook (in fact still new to the whole publishing thing after being on the other end as a writer for a few years). How would this affect the ebook market? Would it at all, or would thinks carry on as they are?

Interested in people's thoughts.