What does the new Kindle and its price point mean ...

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by rogue_librarian

But the others? Kobo, even Sony?

Kobo will have to take their chances like everybody else.
Sony? Good riddance! I'm sick and tired of their fanboys/girls/whatever.

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by kacir

I have no idea whether Amazon is selling with a loss, or with zero profit, or with modest profit.

According to Bezos, Kindles *have* to sell at a profit as they internally bookkeep each division (Readers and ebookstore) as separate businesses. The guessing is it is in anticipation of a legal/regulatory challenge from a loser operation like Sony, probably in the EU. So most likely they run Kindle on single digit profit margin to stay clear of the law.

They can do this because they sell Kindles by the million. (Current estimate: 3.5 million for 2010, which might be as much as *one-third* of the world market for eink readers. ) Some Digitimes estimates put Nook in the 1-2 million unit range, with Sony slightly under a million. Doesn't leave much room for other players. It does explain Amazon getting first dibs on the Pearl screens.

The problem, economically speaking, is the US makes up some 60-70% of the eink reader market (I've seen estimates that NorthAm runs over 80% of the world market). And since it is the most open, most competitive, least protectionist market for books there is a vast base of would-be customers waiting for a reader at their price. Again, I've seen estimates that there are at least 30 million two-book-a-month buyers in the US who could reasonably justify getting a dedicated ebook reader. (Not sure if its before or *after* the 2.5-3.5 milion that *already* have Kindles; I'm assuming its 30 million *more*, since it works out to 10% of the legal residents of the US.)

There is room for competition.
There is also room for added distribution.

But the next phase in the battle for NorthAmerican readers isn't going to be fought on Mobileread or in online sales. The next phase in the battle is going to be fought at WalMart, at Target, at BestBuy, at Canadian Tire & Future shop, at Borders and B&N and Indigo/Chapters.
The next phase is Retail.

And that is not going to be pretty.
(Lost in all the hype over the K3 price and screen is that Bezos said they are going to put Kindle in more venues.)

My guess is Target and AT&T phone stores, maybe Radio Shack & Best Buy.
BestBuy would be nasty for Sony and Nook as customers could actually look at the screens and weight. The good news, such as is, is that Kindle will *never* show up at Walmart.

There is still room for competition but the window is closing on NorthAm. Economies of scale are now in play.
Value is being redefined.
Whoever survives the next year is in, most likely.
But there will be casualties.
Hopefully, not Pocketbook, but they need to improve distribution and start playing up their strengths to *consumers*. And that is easier said than done.

I think somebody needs to sit down with Adobe and get them to start marketing ADEPT to consumers. It's time *they* earned their keep.

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by kacir

Kindle books have relatively large margins, status line at the top, progress bar at the bottom. And you can't configure those things on Kindle.

Uh, no longer at issue. It's not as fine-grained as FBReader180, but you *can* adjust margins (3 or 4 settings) from none to really wide; you can adjust line spacing (used to be a hidden control, now its explicit) and they even offer up Sans Serif and condensed Font face along with 9 sizes. (It's still Caecillia-only, so... Wheee! )

And while the K3 will never be as compact or as ergonomically brilliant as the PB360 it is now on par with 302, maybe a tad ahead. And they 5 way switch looks and works like the PB360's. Their paging buttons wrap around the sides and are firm but quiet. K3 is not a bad reader for the masses.

I still prefer 5" 200 dpi to 6" readers, especially PB360 (I don't buy my readers by the pound, like some) but in a 360-less world I could live with Kindle.

Hopefully, it won't come to that.

[kacir]

Originally Posted by fjtorres

I'm sick and tired of their fanboys/girls/whatever.

Hey! Hey! Hey!
Hold your horses!
*I* am one of Sony fanboys. ;-)

Just look up some of my posts from the time when PRS-500 was the only e-ink reader a mere mortal could afford. At that time USA price for PRS-500 was $350 and the dollar was 50% more expensive here than it is today (I had to pay the same money for 1$ that 1Euro costs here now).

I look at the current situation with mixed feelings.
Do you know that mixed feelings mean?
It is when you see your mother in law falling from the cliff in your new car ;-)

I am happy that e-books are becoming more and more mainstream, I am happy that publishers won't be able to ignore or sabotage the e-book market anymore.
I am happy that the prices of e-ink readers are starting to become reasonable.
I am very wary of Amazon and their attempt to crush competition and become an unbridled e-book monopoly. We have seen what they did to Mobipocket.
I am unhappy that companies like PocketBook with clearly superior products have to fight for their life with several 1000 pound gorillas. I am unhappy that "little" hardworking people, like Guys in Kiev are caught in the middle of the war between Kindle, Nook and Kobo.

There *is* hope.
Kobo is manufactured by Netronix (that is called PocketBook global nowadays), and Netronix is one of biggest e-ink reader manufacturers, so PocketBook does have some muscle behind them.

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by kacir

Hey! Hey! Hey!
Hold your horses!
*I* am one of Sony fanboys. ;-)

No, you're not.

A Sony fanboy/whatever doesn't just love their Sony, they *hate* everything else. They pop into competitor forums to badmouth products they've never seen or use.

(And the whatever part refers to the fact that Sony has been caught sending paid employees to troll the web pretending to be loyal consumers.)

[Dulin's Books]

Amazon is still making a bit , a very small bit, on each kindle. Each 6" wifi only Kindle is costing them $100-$119 possibly into the 120s. so they are making 20-30 dollars on each one.

[rogue_librarian]

Originally Posted by Dulin's Books

Amazon is still making a bit , a very small bit, on each kindle.

They probably have to, I imagine. Otherwise some Antitrust Office or other would soon be breathing down their neck.

So they are making 20-30 dollars on each one.

They're expected to sell a few hundred thousand, too, so that'll work for them.

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by kacir

I am very wary of Amazon and their attempt to crush competition and become an unbridled e-book monopoly. We have seen what they did to Mobipocket.

Uh, I'm as wary of Amazon as anybody (I didn't get a Kindle--a refurb--until I was sure I could strip the DRM of anything I bought from them. Haven't had to but I'm comfortable knowing I could if I had to) but lets be realistic; they are *not* actively trying to crush competition.
If they *wanted* to crush competition the K2 would *not* have come to market with 100% markup.
If they *wanted* to crush competition they wouldn't have waited until Nook forced their hand to go to $189.
If they wanted to crush competition they would be supporting ePub--with propietary DRM instead of ADEPT.
There are lots of cheap easy ways Amazon could crush competition. They are doing one of them.

Rather, your line about the 1000 lb behemoths applies; they are competing against forces bigger than them, the BPHs, and competitors like Apple, B&N, and to a lesser extent (now) Sony. They are using their resources as necessary to achieve their goal and, let's be honest here; their goal is to transition the marketplace from 100% print books to 99% ebooks. (And make money along the way. )

Yes, it is good to be wary of market leaders. But let's not lose sight of the fact that nobody gets into business for their own health. Nor that in free and open markets there will inevitable be winners and losers. The alternative is protectionism and protectionism only serves entrenched powers, not newcomers, not consumers.

Amazon has played a good game but its been mostly clean: Anybody could've given Oprah Winfrey and ereader as a promotional move, but only Amazon thought of it. Anybody with an ebookstore could've done connected readers but Amazon happened to be the first. They are also the first to actually deliver a reader that harnesses the social networking aspects of reading through Facebook and twitter. The closest is Copia and they're still in beta with maybe 10 users while Amazon has been running with millions of users for three months.

What crimes has Amazon committed? Not rolling over and playing dead for Adobe? ePub is hardly *that* great and Adobe doesn't own it, not now that Apple broke up their attempt to hijack the "standard". Lets not forget that committee standards have a long record of losing out in the real world. (Otherwise the internet would be buit on GOSIP not TCP/IP. And SGML would rule the print world. )

Kindles are not for everybody not every use. There is room for cometitors but blind nay-saying (like Sony, below) helps nobody.
Competitors compete.
Losers go home to whine/whinge.

When it comes to the current ebook pricing reset, the onus is upon Amazon's competitors to be better and prove it. (Sony, for one, thinks a press release is an adequate answer to the K3: http://www.engadget.com/2010/07/30/s...kindle-intend/).

Hopefully Pocketbook Global has something better to fight back with.

First thing that comes to mind is that the Adobe ADEPT cult needs to get its act in gear; if Adobe ePub is really that hot, prove it. Get the word out. Get a trademark. Publicize it. Educate would-be buyers.

90% of the reading public in the US has yet to buy a reader (if we believe the analyst types) so there clearly is time to compete. But network effects aren't limited to online communities, there is such a thing as critical mass for platforms where the tyranny of the installed base sets in. We're not there yet, in eink readers, but its a lot closer than it appeared even a few months ago.

The weakness of the Kindle alternatives isn't in the readers, it's in the mishandling of the ePub would-be industry standard. And I'm starting to wonder if Pocketbook Global maybe ought to look into the numbers and see what might happen if they took Bezos at his word about licensing azw/whispernet compatibility.

A PB360 that can access the Kindle store? Hmmm... Maybe instead of fighting we could be joining them? Now *that's* an evil thought.

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by rogue_librarian

They're expected to sell a few hundred thousand, too, so that'll work for them.

Uh, where? In the UK alone?
The numbers I've seen (Digitimes, etc) have them moving 3.5 million for 2010 on top of 2.5 million before 2010.

[brainycat]

Good points (as usual), kacir and fjtorres.

When people ask me about my PB302 - "Is that the Kindle?" my short answer is, "No, it's a PocketBook 302. Kindles and Nooks are like Honda Civics, this is the Mercedes SLS of the ebook world." If they're interested in why I feel that way, I show off some of the features and explain the open nature of the OS and the format support.

I don't think I've sold any, though. Everyone I know personally either already have an ereader (PB302 wasn't my first reader, either) or don't consider themselves in the market. I've made my point on GoodReads several times, but everyone ended up getting a Kindle "because I just can't justify the price of all those extra features." My guess is that a significant number of people will buy an entry level reader, and after they come to rely on it, realize that the cost of the additional features is absolutely worthwhile.

[tvpupsik]

Originally Posted by brainycat

When people ask me about my PB302 - "Is that the Kindle?" my short answer is, "No, it's a PocketBook 302. Kindles and Nooks are like Honda Civics, this is the Mercedes SLS of the ebook world."

Nicely said, brainycat! Thank you!

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by brainycat

When people ask me about my PB302 - "Is that the Kindle?" my short answer is, "No, it's a PocketBook 302. Kindles and Nooks are like Honda Civics, this is the Mercedes SLS of the ebook world."

So what does that make the PB360? A Miata?

[kacir]

Originally Posted by fjtorres

So what does that make the PB360? A Miata?

A spartan sports car without a radio, carpets, back seat and air conditioner. The one that comes with a big red box, the size of small shipping container, with 100 titanium spanners, 50 screwdrivers, special tools and 10 sets of shock absorbers of various parameters.

;-)

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by kacir

A spartan sports car without a radio, carpets, back seat and air conditioner. The one that comes with a big red box, the size of small shipping container, with 100 titanium spanners, 50 screwdrivers, special tools and 10 sets of shock absorbers of various parameters.

;-)

Uh, you realize you just described a 60's MG Midget, right?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MG_Midget
The ones with, brrr, *Lucas* electrical systems?

I think PB360 is a tad... different.

Old auto joke:
"Why do brits drink their beer warm?"
"All their refrigerators are made by Lucas."
Ba-da, ba-dump!

[rblover]

Why should it matter to me-who reads English-whether the Kindle can support Korean, Greek, etc? This sounds like Sony pushing the Betamax years ago, by claiming it had superior image, and sound...the trouble being that the image, and sound, superiority could not be detected by human eyes, and ears, and could only be demonstrated on hi tech lab equipment. If an e-readers alleged superiority is not useful to me, I have no need for it. If Kindle can't handle epub, what good is it?