eInk readers dying before they spread?

[Andybaby]

Originally Posted by Kali Yuga

As to the advantages of multifunction devices.... Keep in mind that the iPod still has significant sales; e.g. in Q1 2009, 22.73 million iPods sold, compared to 4.36 million iPhones. Multifunction might get a lot of attention, but devices with a narrower focus often have multiple advantages.

does that number of ipods include touches, classics, and nanos etc?

4 million I phones. at the cost of almost a thousand each for apple , so over 4,360,000,000. cough.. that's a number, even if its only half that.. 500 a phone.. 2 billion dollars in a quarter for just the phone. but I do think its closer to the 850 a unit or more.

[Kali Yuga]

Originally Posted by Andybaby

does that number of ipods include touches, classics, and nanos etc?

Yes

Originally Posted by Andybaby

4 million I phones. at the cost of almost a thousand each for apple , so over 4,360,000,000. cough.. that's a number, even if its only half that..

Yes, and? A number of what? What's the relevance of your revenue projections?

Just to be clear, I'm trying to point out that even though the iPhone gets all the press and attention, Apple is still selling nearly five times as many iPods (in various forms) as iPhones. I.e. the single-purpose device is still more popular than the multi-purpose device.

While an iPhone can do a lot more than an iPod Shuffle, that does not alter the fact that the Shuffle is far superior for certain tasks and uses than an iPhone. Similarly, an e-book reader will never be as versatile as an iPhone or a tablet or a netbook, but it will be superior for the specific task of reading. For those who read heavily -- and these are the people who presumably buy the most books -- an e-book reader will be the optimal choice, especially as they fall in price.

E.g. let's say there are 16 million iPhones in use, and their owners will buy on average 2 e-books a year; and 1 million Kindle owners who buy 20 e-books a year. The iPhones still generate more income, but with more overhead (as you now have 15 million more accounts to deal with), less effective marketing, and more competition for space and time and attention on the iPhone itself. At 1.6 million Kindle users, revenue is equal; 2 million and it's higher.

Mind you, I believe that it will be a good thing to have more people reading e-books. But mass appeal is not the only way to make money from e-books or e-book readers.

Originally Posted by Boston

These thoughts were probably posted elsewhere and nothing new...but the Boston Globe posted this blog which I found interesting and suggests how E Ink Corp's recent move may suggest they are questioning the technology's future.

At the risk of making an appeal to authority , the WSJ and many analysts are blaming it on a disastrous IPO market: http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2009/06/...-e-ink-buyout/

We're still in the middle of a massive credit crunch, so I can definitely see how it is not easy to raise hundreds of millions of dollars for R&D, especially since a) they already had VC funding and b) the IPO market is moribund, thus hampering the ability to provide a massive payday to other sources of funding.

[RickyMaveety]

Originally Posted by Andybaby

does that number of ipods include touches, classics, and nanos etc?

4 million I phones. at the cost of almost a thousand each for apple , so over 4,360,000,000. cough.. that's a number, even if its only half that.. 500 a phone.. 2 billion dollars in a quarter for just the phone. but I do think its closer to the 850 a unit or more.

Wrong on the price, not by that much, but still. My new iPhone 3Gs (to be released on the 19th) was/is $700, it's less expensive if you buy into a contract or whatever. The regular 3G - with a contract - sells for about $200.

[phenomshel]

Originally Posted by griffonwing

There will always be cracks, converters, firmware alternatives, etc... If I, for some reason, loved the Kindle unit, I can rest assured that sooner or later, someone will come out with a compatible firmware, such as OpenInkPot or the like, that is tailored to it's manyfold buttons.

Proprietary devices with their formats are going to go by the wayside. It will not last very long. Many DRM formats are losing the DRM, and it will not be very long until the proprietary units will loosen their tie and let their hair down and allow more formats to be used.

At least, this will take place in my own little world.

In which scenario, I want to join you in your own little world! In my dreamworld, Amazon gets a clue and opens up the ebook store to all devices and formats....

[Elfwreck]

Dedicated ebook readers won't be more than a tiny niche unless distributors start pushing *free ebook* sources. (And that support will need to be better than what Jetbook's currently seems to be.)

iPods caught on because nearly everyone likes music, and nearly everyone would like music of their choice on tap... and because it's easy to rip your current music on disc to digital format.

Books are not nearly as popular as music. (Even for those of us who love books. I listen to a lot more songs per year than I read books.) And content conversion is what caught the digital music world, not just the new, smaller version of a Walkman.

Radio and television caught on because the content was free. Computers weren't in nearly every household until the internet caught on... which was pushed as "infinite content for a small monthly access fee." Selling the device won't appeal outside of its niche until people are convinced they're not just buying a limited, expensive way to cut down on the shoulder strain of carrying a lot of books.

And if publishers really want the ebook market to explode, they'll need to figure out how to allow a secondary market, like the one that exists for pbooks.

[Kali Yuga]

Originally Posted by Elfwreck

Dedicated ebook readers won't be more than a tiny niche unless distributors start pushing *free ebook* sources....

Perhaps, but size doesn't matter as long as that niche is profitable.

Originally Posted by Eflwreck

iPods caught on because nearly everyone likes music...

True, but again, e-books do not need a mass market to be profitable and/or successful. According to a Zogby poll (http://www.zogby.com/random%20house%...l%20report.pdf), 50% of Americans buy less than 5 books a year. 24% buy 11-20 books, and 14% buy 20 or more. If you hook into that top 14%, you're set.

Or to put it another way, BMW does not need to make a $4,000 car in order to be profitable.

[Sydney's Mom]

Originally Posted by Elfwreck

Books are not nearly as popular as music. (Even for those of us who love books. I listen to a lot more songs per year than I read books.) Selling the device won't appeal outside of its niche until people are convinced they're not just buying a limited, expensive way to cut down on the shoulder strain of carrying a lot of books.

I read more than I listen to music, or watch TV. The only thing I used to do more of was knitting, but since I got my kindle, I hardly ever knit anymore. There are just too many books, too little time.

My goal is to watch all 162 regular season Cubs games this year (and hopefully well into the post season!). I used to play piano while I watched baseball, but curling up with my kindle beats all. I will never give up my kindle, and if they come out with something that has SD card capability and folders, I will buy a third!

I am in a job where I stare at a computer screen all day. I used to not even check my home computer, cause I was so sick of looking at a backlit screen. With eink, it is a totally different experience.

Long Live Eink!

[Andybaby]

Originally Posted by RickyMaveety

Wrong on the price, not by that much, but still. My new iPhone 3Gs (to be released on the 19th) was/is $700, it's less expensive if you buy into a contract or whatever. The regular 3G - with a contract - sells for about $200.

I'm not that wrong on price, because they get a % of the subscription fees. I saw projections as high as 1200 (399 for the phone, and 400 a year per contract) and that was all the way back for the first 4gig models. I'm sure its changed a bit now.

its 700 hardware, (that has a $500 subsidy) but they do also get a percentage on the subscription. 70 a month, per phone. times 24 is another 2 grand about (fees and stuff too) even 10% of that 2,000 per phone is about 200 bucks. but I think its more. and I'm almost sure its over 15% as high as 20%.

that's the only reason apple is staying with at&t because the are making boat loads from the subscription fees too

[momghoti]

I wouldn't have wanted a multifunction device when I was a college student. For example, how could a tablet large enough to read a mathematics or physics text, with graphs and illustrations, be convenient as a phone? What if you want to visit while studying? Even with a dedicated device, it's going to have to be capable of referencing a second book--maybe switching between two books with a single click--to be really useful in a university situation. It's a niche market, true, but it's plenty large enough to make several fortunes, and it can be pretty pricey and *still* cheaper than buying five or six $100 books every semester.

I think the point of 'ebooks dying before they spread' is that epaper is still in it's infancy. If it has time, I think the issues--like refresh rate, fragility, color, interaction, cost, cost, and cost--will be solved and it will be adopted in other devices. If a 'good enough' substitution replaces epaper because it's cheaper/easier, I'm afraid epaper won't have enough financial impetus to reach its potential. I like the idea of epaper, I like reading on it. If a new tech came along that was as good for reading I'd go with that--but it would take a lot to convince me. I also wouldn't really be into a multifunction device; I like KISS. I don't even like the video-playing ipods that much.

[Sonist]

I think TVs are about to disappear.

I mean, who wants a 60" frame hanging on the wall, that only does movies and TV? If it's that big, and that expensive, wouldn't it be better, if it cleaned the house, too? And washed clothes, and dishes. And cooked (O.K., I know, that this is asking a bit much.)

Of course, it needs to shrink and fit in the coin pocket of my jeans, when I go out, so I don't have to deal with multiple devices if I want to watch a movie while driving.

Oh, yeah, and of course, it needs to serve as a phone, too....

[RickyMaveety]

Originally Posted by Andybaby

I'm not that wrong on price, because they get a % of the subscription fees. I saw projections as high as 1200 (399 for the phone, and 400 a year per contract) and that was all the way back for the first 4gig models. I'm sure its changed a bit now.

its 700 hardware, (that has a $500 subsidy) but they do also get a percentage on the subscription. 70 a month, per phone. times 24 is another 2 grand about (fees and stuff too) even 10% of that 2,000 per phone is about 200 bucks. but I think its more. and I'm almost sure its over 15% as high as 20%.

that's the only reason apple is staying with at&t because the are making boat loads from the subscription fees too

"subscription fees" ??? I have no idea what you are talking about. And, I was wrong on the price, as of the 19th, the 8G iPhone 3G will be $99.

As mentioned, I do not have a contract. So, I don't see how anything times 24 is applicable. I pay the same amount to AT&T every month as I did when I had a non-Apple produced phone.

So, I guess I am missing whatever point you are trying to make. The most expensive iPhone is $700 .... without a two year contract. If you do opt for the contract, it is a lot less expensive.

If you could be a little more clear, I might be able to understand you, but I can't say I do at the moment. From my perspective, your math makes no sense.

[junkyardwillie]

Final answer...

1 - Eink devices will not be totally run out of the market although they will play a much smaller role similar to PDAs today (you can still find one if you wanted but why would you want to?) (ETA: 5-Years)
2 - LCD screens such as Pixel Qi will be incorporated into many of the netbooks that are released and will capture a huge portion of eInk's potential market, they will have better battery life, ability to switch between color and B&W and have full O/S' giving people the ability to run any software they want to read their books and do whatever else they want to on a laptop. Multitasking is the only way to go (ETA: 12-18 months)
3 - Pixel Qi type screens will later be incorporated into touch screens, making tablets which will punch holes in the eInk sails leaving them paddling with their hands (ETA: 18-24 months)
4 - Amazon will eventually sell their ebooks for all devices and become the hub for eBooks, if they do not which will be a disaster for their company Itunes will and Apple will do a little jig (ETA: 18-24 months)
5 - Consumers will be overjoyed and people will run into the streets crying and hugging eachother as they read on their new and improved laptop screens, we will come the closest that humankind as ever gotten to and will ever get to having world peace. A lone person releasing a silent fart will disperse the crowd and end the moment (ETA: 24 months; Ending: 24 months and 15 minutes)

eInk device are not going to get enough volume to bring their prices down to what they should be ($50-$100, factoring in that you need to buy books for it (I'm sure someone must be) and that it is not a multifunctional device (if they can get some sort of note taking ability in there that works amazing like a Livescribe pen then maybe they can talk turkey. Mainstream people will not pay $400+ to read books when we use computer screens all the time). A netbook with a Pixel Qi screen at $400 is a much better deal than a Kindle or any other ebook device at $400 because you can use it in so many other ways. The portability and ease of reading on eink devices will keep them on life support until good power saving LCD tablets can come out and violently pull the plug out while shaking its head at eInk

Publishers will eventually be forced to release their books as eBooks at competitive rates as they get served with the iTunes effect of everyone just getting their books for free, they need to get on board now before the ship leaves the port. You can't be half pregnant, their prices imply it costs as much to create an eBook as it does for a paperback book and that is not true unless they have the most inefficient computers known to man. The record industry learned this the hard way and it seems publishers will as well if they try to fight supplying consumers with what they want.

Overall it will be a plus for consumers as there will be multiple devices available that can be used to effectively read books giving people what they want Choice!!

End of discussion

[junkyardwillie]

Originally Posted by RickyMaveety

"subscription fees" ??? I have no idea what you are talking about. And, I was wrong on the price, as of the 19th, the 8G iPhone 3G will be $99.

As mentioned, I do not have a contract. So, I don't see how anything times 24 is applicable. I pay the same amount to AT&T every month as I did when I had a non-Apple produced phone.

So, I guess I am missing whatever point you are trying to make. The most expensive iPhone is $700 .... without a two year contract. If you do opt for the contract, it is a lot less expensive.

If you could be a little more clear, I might be able to understand you, but I can't say I do at the moment. From my perspective, your math makes no sense.

I believe he is referring to the revenue sharing contract that Apple had with AT&T (Apple received a portion of a persons phone bill so the rates were jacked up a bit in the early iPhone years) that has apparently ended http://arstechnica.com/apple/news/20...aring-axed.ars

[Robertb]

Dear All:

IF everything remained as now and there were no external pressures to change, we could debate the viability of eBook Readers forever despite that sales are climbing thru the roof. Lets ignore that printed books and audio books went way down last year and that eBooks experienced a 171% increase.

All things are NOT going to stay the same. They cannot. There is a Limit to Growth for printed books. Old books, particularly paperbacks and newspapers and magazines ALL are clogging up the landfill. That is NOT going to continue forever without sharp penalties and cost to the consumer. eBooks do NOT cause landfill problems.

Printing of books is a huge drain on power and eBooks are not. Printed books mean trees must be harvested.

The big kicker though is what is known as Toxic Paper-Making Bi-Products. Paper Mill Sludge is decimating our rivers, lakes, and streams. Paper Sludge, caused by the bleaching of paper by chemicals to make it white, contains 30 carcinogens and is pure acid and Canada did a major study on the problem last year and found there is no way to effectively alleviate the risk. Like a time-bomb, Paper Mill Sludge Regulation is going to drive many paper mills out of business.

Like it or not... printed books are going away and the electronic reader is the vehicle people think will eventually win out. WHY?? Because you can store 4,000 books on a 16GB SD card and have them forever. Newspapers, magazines, books... all saved, all categorized by date, all available as a resource long after they are popular.

[RickyMaveety]

Originally Posted by junkyardwillie

I believe he is referring to the revenue sharing contract that Apple had with AT&T (Apple received a portion of a persons phone bill so the rates were jacked up a bit in the early iPhone years) that has apparently ended http://arstechnica.com/apple/news/20...aring-axed.ars

That's possible, but he seems to be under the impression that is still the case. It was not case when I purchased my first iPhone, and it is not the case now. The price of the iPhone ranges from $99 to $700 depending on the features and whether or not you get a two year contract for phone service from AT&T. That's it.

I know .... I've been with AT&T for years and this next phone will be my third iPhone.