Will 2009 be the Year of the E-book?

[CTH]

I think that when you look back at the ebook history in 10 years time, it will be either the release of the kindle OR the release of some 9.7 inch device in late 2009 or early 2010 the start of the "end" of paper media (it will never be a end to paper media, but the digital newpapers of the future will prob write it like that )

but the year of the ebook, will not happen in 2009... At least I dont think so, 2010 maybe, 2011 is a better guess...

[brudigia]

Originally Posted by dmaul1114

Yep.

Currently ebooks are selling to serious readers who are into gadgets.

Prices come down, and better readers come out, then you'll see more more and more serious readers get on board. A unified format would help a great deal expanding the market to avid readers as others have pointed out.

Then the final expansion is to casual readers who can get ebooks on their phones, pdas, and other gadgets going forward.

I think that everybody has said a portion of the the truth. The scenario is complex and there is not a single thing holding back acceptability of readers and ebooks.
IMHO all the factors mentioned are valid and have to be summed one to the other:

• Ereader price
• ebook formats
• lack of colour
• need to be tech savvy

I do not believe that ebook price are to blame, as by far and large they closely resemble the paper prices, at the worst. See Amazon for the kindle, but also all the other ebook shops. And everyday the price of many books (not all, granted) go down. But the market is too small.
Nor do I think that casual readers will help.

I personally believe that there is a killing application which very few see : schools. If ereaders shall make it into schools, as textbooks an avalanche will follow, and all the problems above will disappear, most likely.

[JSWolf]

Originally Posted by brudigia

I personally believe that there is a killing application which very few see : schools. If ereaders shall make it into schools, as textbooks an avalanche will follow, and all the problems above will disappear, most likely.

As of right now, there is NO reader that is good enough for textbooks. So that won't happen for a long long time to come. I don't think it will happen in 2009.

[ficbot]

ePub is great, but I think the formats issue is going to take awhile to work out because people have already bought books in other formats. I know that since I got my Sony Reader, I have been very careful to only buy multiformat books because my secure eReader books cannot work on the Sony. I can still get use out of them on my iPod Touch, but if I am buying new things I prefer to be able to read them on both devices. If a device came out in the future that did not support eReader, all those books would be lost to me. So it would need to support ePub or whatever standard PLUS offer support for eReader (and here other users would be subbing in 'eReader' for Kindle, Mobi, PDF or whatever format *they* have).

I already have been burned on this once already with two or three books I bought when I had the eBookwise which are now lost to me. I don't want to get burned again. I *only* buy secure eReader now if it is a book I really want to read and if it's one if Fictionwise's 100% micropay specials. They (i.e. the Publishing Industry) are losing out on sales by not offering the book in Multiformat because there are titles I would buy if they were available to me in the format of my choosing.

So for now, my gameplan is to stick with multiformat to cover my bases for both current and future needs, and then hope that by the time my Sony Reader dies (which is hopefully a few years off) the battle will be over, there will be a clear format/content winner, and I can be on my merry way with whatever product wins.

[dmaul1114]

Originally Posted by JSWolf

As of right now, there is NO reader that is good enough for textbooks. So that won't happen for a long long time to come. I don't think it will happen in 2009.

Yeah, display size is an issue with all the different sizes of text books and full page tables/graphs.

Being able to highlight and annotate easily (as easily as in a paper book) is also a barrier. I find it much harder to do on PDAs and tablet PCs currently.

[brudigia]

Originally Posted by JSWolf

As of right now, there is NO reader that is good enough for textbooks. So that won't happen for a long long time to come. I don't think it will happen in 2009.

Well, maybe not a long time, but it still will take a while, yes. Schools will lower the price a lot. 9.7 screens should make it, maybe also B/W could be enough.

If I do not recollect badly, the great switch between the cathode ray TV and LCD TV, it was California laws which basically prohibited Cathode ray TV and pushed LCD screen production prices to what it is today (and it still is going lower). So if states legislations were to push it ....

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Originally Posted by brudigia

I personally believe that there is a killing application which very few see : schools. If ereaders shall make it into schools, as textbooks an avalanche will follow, and all the problems above will disappear, most likely.

It's not that people don't see it... it's that textbook publishers have fought hardest of all to avoid that day, as it would be even more disrupting to their system (and their profit margins) than in literary publishing. But plenty of people, parents especially, would love to see an electronic device replace those scores of pounds of books their children are forced to strain their backs lugging around.

For these kids, affordable laptops are the only "killer" hardware they need... dedicated readers would be nice, but laptops already have color, and are multi-function, and flexibility is always big with kids. Introduce them to a Zinio-type app for magazines, and include some e-book reading SW, and they're good.

[Phogg]

Originally Posted by ficbot

ePub is great, but I think the formats issue is going to take awhile to work out because people have already bought books in other formats. I know that since I got my Sony Reader, I have been very careful to only buy multiformat books because my secure eReader books cannot work on the Sony. I can still get use out of them on my iPod Touch, but if I am buying new things I prefer to be able to read them on both devices. If a device came out in the future that did not support eReader, all those books would be lost to me. So it would need to support ePub or whatever standard PLUS offer support for eReader (and here other users would be subbing in 'eReader' for Kindle, Mobi, PDF or whatever format *they* have).

I already have been burned on this once already with two or three books I bought when I had the eBookwise which are now lost to me. I don't want to get burned again. I *only* buy secure eReader now if it is a book I really want to read and if it's one if Fictionwise's 100% micropay specials. They (i.e. the Publishing Industry) are losing out on sales by not offering the book in Multiformat because there are titles I would buy if they were available to me in the format of my choosing.

So for now, my gameplan is to stick with multiformat to cover my bases for both current and future needs, and then hope that by the time my Sony Reader dies (which is hopefully a few years off) the battle will be over, there will be a clear format/content winner, and I can be on my merry way with whatever product wins.

If someone releases a machine that could run Caliber (even if for contractual reasons it doesn't come installed) wouldn't that take care of things quite a bit?

[Blue Tyson]

To be 'The' year, you'd have to have most of the books come out electronically, too, as opposed to the current not up with it situation.

[Over]

The year of the ebook will be the same year we can say that ereaders are mainstream.