Will Paper books fade away?

[Alisa]

Originally Posted by lilac_jive

Living in NoVa, you should know people still ride horses.

Well, at least ten years ago when I lived there. All the rich people played polo.

I think, aside from things like children's books and art books which naturally do better in the form, paper books will be more a luxury item. Yes, there is something about a beautifully bound classic that is a joy to behold as primbs' quote mentioned. However, most of the paper books we consume are not like that. Maybe your rich, polo playing neighbors had personal libraries full of gorgeous leather bindings but my middle class den is full of paperbacks and cloth bindings. They're more ephemeral. Most of those books will be read once as will magazines and newspapers. Horses used to be the main form of transportation. Now they're mostly used for pleasure riding and sport.

While I don't think paper books will be as rare as horses, I can see a day where book-loving folks like us will only have a few beloved paper books, which will be much more expensive, and the rest will be digital. I don't think paper will go away but there's going to be a whole lot less of it. On the bright side, when I'm paying for a book I love, I'll spend a lot more to get a beautiful printing. As POD technology improves I can see it filling this need. Can you imagine being able to get any book that is a classic to you in a premium paper stock with a lovely binding of your choice? It's hard enough to find a good printing of books that are widely recognized as classics. The market isn't there for it. These days, if you want a lovely binding, you have to take it to a bookbinder anyway. I think the decline of paper could actually make a new artisan market for it as people make the decision about which books they want as tangible objects and how much they want to pay to make that object beautiful.

[Alisa]

Originally Posted by dadioflex

Sounds to me as if that guy and his books need to get a room. You can fetishize anything with varying degrees of mainstream acceptance. For some people a book is a work of art, for others it's merely a text delivery system. I fall into the second camp.

It sounds more like his fantasy of the books he would love to have. I doubt he's thumbing through illuminated manuscripts on a daily basis.

[desertgrandma]

Originally Posted by dadioflex

Sounds to me as if that guy and his books need to get a room. You can fetishize anything with varying degrees of mainstream acceptance. For some people a book is a work of art, for others it's merely a text delivery system. I fall into the second camp.

It doesn't have to be so black and white.

You can appreciate the feel of a well bound book, and appreciate a beautiful book being a work of art and still enjoy reading on a e-book reader.

This person obviously loves his paper books.


As do I.

[cerement]

In response to the thread title:

No, I don't think paper books will ever fade away. But on the same hand, there's a time and place for everything. eBook readers are still in their infancy and they won't be replacing paper anything on a regular basis until prices come way down. eBook readers will replace paper when they become cheap enough to manufacture that publishers can effectively "give one away" with a book or magazine subscription pre-installed. When we get to this stage, then paper books (and magazines and newspapers) will move into the realm of collectible artwork, a matter of prestige and erudition. We already have artisan presses turning out books as artwork, where people care as much about making the item as they care about the content (as opposed to the majority of modern publishers who are too busy cutting corners, selling the recent bestseller so poorly put together they fall apart after a single reading).

[Nate the great]

Originally Posted by lilac_jive

Living in NoVa, you should know people still ride horses.

Well, at least ten years ago when I lived there. All the rich people played polo.

Originally Posted by Liviu_5

Nope; too many comparative advantages;

I was making a point through irony. The statement was obviously false becuase horses are still in use. I could just as easily have written that ebooks will make books fade away just like paperbacks made hardbacks and coffee table books fade away.

[pilotbob]

Paper will eventually fade out, but not away.

I remember way back when computers started going into offices everyone talked about the "paperless" office. It was a prediction well ahead of its time, because since the 80s till now computers have made it easier to generate more paper than ever. This was due to there being no easy way to view a document, search, find etc.

I think that with the advent of eInk and generically e-paper we will get there.

So, yes, paper pooks, newpapers, print magazines will be much reduced. The creation of new once I should say. But, paper and printed material won;t go away for quite a while.

I mean, until you can find a cheap way to replace a map that you keep in the glove box.. I don't think so.

So, yes, in the long term the use of paper as a medium for the printed word will fade out.... but it is quite a while away.

BOb

[lilac_jive]

Originally Posted by Nate the great

I was making a point through irony. The statement was obviously false becuase horses are still in use. I could just as easily have written that ebooks will make books fade away just like paperbacks made hardbacks and coffee table books fade away.

I was being facetious in response to your irony

[DaleDe]

Originally Posted by Nate the great

Yes, paper books will fade away - just like horses did with the invention of the automobile.

I know you meant this to show that Horses have not faded and therefore paper will not fade but in fact the draft horse almost did completely fade away. Luckily some folks are now reinstating this magnificent animal and even finding new uses for them. They are used in logging now as it is must less harmful to the environment than using a tractor for the task.

However, horses have faded away from our cities and are no longer extensively used for transportation or hauling goods. They are now mostly recreational and sports. Books will always find a niche but they may end up being replaced in the mainstream. Already many newspapers are going out of business and some are resorting to web only.

Dale

[primbs]

http://torontodev.ca/2009/02/the-fut...at-bookcampto/

The debate will continue. Here is an interesting event.

http://bookcampto.pbwiki.com/

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Considering printed books are already being replaced with electronics, there's really no reason to debate this as a "yes" or "no" question. To be clear, what is worth debating is what the eventual state of printed books will be: Boutique item; heirloom; Wall-Mart end-cap product; fishwrap; museum piece; no change, just fewer of them?

I'm going with boutique item/heirloom. Only special books will be put on paper and cherished over time... the (pretty much) 99% of the rest of literature that we print today, including periodicals, textbooks, entertainment, etc, will end up electronic.

[Moejoe]

Originally Posted by Steve Jordan

Considering printed books are already being replaced with electronics, there's really no reason to debate this as a "yes" or "no" question. To be clear, what is worth debating is what the eventual state of printed books will be: Boutique item; heirloom; Wall-Mart end-cap product; fishwrap; museum piece; no change, just fewer of them?

I'm going with boutique item/heirloom. Only special books will be put on paper and cherished over time... the (pretty much) 99% of the rest of literature that we print today, including periodicals, textbooks, entertainment, etc, will end up electronic.

I've got to agree with Steve on this one. There's no way that as the technology improves and the price comes down, that a whole generation weaned on the computer and technology will even consider the printed book as anything but quaint. I love books, I've been an avid reader all my life, I even like the smell of the things, but it's no contest to me. Electronic books means I can read more, store more, and transport them without any cost at all. I just wish e-books had been around earlier.

[thibaulthalpern]

I don't think paper books will go away any time soon. There is time and place for eBooks but it is certainly not a replacement for paper books. For one, having paper books is like having multiple screens. You can't open more than one book at a time on a eBook reader because it only has one screen. Of course, you can buy multiple eBook readers but that's a major expense and a hassle. With paper books, you can open multiple ones at the same time and often this is needed when skimming and scanning things. eBook reader is cumbersome with its one screen.

There is something to be said for materiality.

[Alisa]

Originally Posted by thibaulthalpern

I don't think paper books will go away any time soon. There is time and place for eBooks but it is certainly not a replacement for paper books. For one, having paper books is like having multiple screens. You can't open more than one book at a time on a eBook reader because it only has one screen. Of course, you can buy multiple eBook readers but that's a major expense and a hassle. With paper books, you can open multiple ones at the same time and often this is needed when skimming and scanning things. eBook reader is cumbersome with its one screen.

There is something to be said for materiality.

When screens are cheap and paper books are expensive, people who read in this style will probably find it more cost-effective to have multiple devices.

[Liviu_5]

Originally Posted by Moejoe

I've got to agree with Steve on this one. There's no way that as the technology improves and the price comes down, that a whole generation weaned on the computer and technology will even consider the printed book as anything but quaint. I love books, I've been an avid reader all my life, I even like the smell of the things, but it's no contest to me. Electronic books means I can read more, store more, and transport them without any cost at all. I just wish e-books had been around earlier.

In the foreseeable future that we can discuss pertinently (10-20 years) I doubt that will happen; print books will remain dominant, though e-books will increase in market share, and the question is where 3%, 10%, 1% - I doubt that they will get in double digits percentage of the total book market as *revenue* soon - I predict boldly that ebooks will stay below 10% of revenue in the book market for the next 10 years at least, most likely for the next 20...


After that who knows - highways have not disappeared after all, have been around since the Romans at least - but who knows, we may get teleporting and they will indeed disappear...

My problem with all this "print will fade away" thingy is that it is used to justify draconian drm and ridiculous e-book prices

[Moejoe]

Originally Posted by thibaulthalpern

I don't think paper books will go away any time soon. There is time and place for eBooks but it is certainly not a replacement for paper books. For one, having paper books is like having multiple screens. You can't open more than one book at a time on a eBook reader because it only has one screen. Of course, you can buy multiple eBook readers but that's a major expense and a hassle. With paper books, you can open multiple ones at the same time and often this is needed when skimming and scanning things. eBook reader is cumbersome with its one screen.

There is something to be said for materiality.

But can we afford such materiality in a world that is rapidly running out of resources? We have to, and we are, shifting our thinking away from the material and into the realms of the digital. Nobody would carry around a filofax when they have a PDA or a smart phone. Nobody would type up their report on a mechanical typewriter when they have a word-processor. I can't remember the last time I used my printer as a writer, where five years ago that's all I ever did - print, correct, reprint, correct, mail off etc.

The shift in entertainment is taking longer not because of limitations in technology, but because of companies who don't want to see their cash-cow run away. Movies, Music, they've been stalling progress now for 10 years, and it looks like the publishing industry might be trying the same tactics. The romance of the written word should be just that, the words, not the packaging. If the status-quo remains we'll never truly be readers, but just collectors with pretty things on the shelves.