Is the Traditional PDA Market Tapped Out?

[ignatz]

Bob and those who follow raise great points. As Morpheus and others point out, those of us who really utilize the possibilities of this technology are a small group. And jkendrick's point is almost startling: why don't the pda companies advertise what the true potential of their devices is? When I first found Mobileread I found myself asking Alex, where is everyone? Because surely people who have pdas would want this resource, surely nearly everyone with a pda would want to read some news or books on it. Or so I thought. But where does the reality lie? Are most users just not interested in "alternative" uses of pdas, or do they just not realize the potential? I've showed mine to heaps of people who had no idea that such a thing was possible. A buddy of mine in NYC had a PPC for over a year and just wasn't using it. Once I hipped him to the possibilities, he began voraciously tearing through the Gutenburg Project files... So it does seem that the manufacturers/marketers are missing the boat.

I'm also of the opinion that there aren't a ton of reasons to upgrade, depending on what it is you like to do with your pda. Most recent pdas, even the monochrome ones, will do a good job at most of what you want to do unless that involves heavy gaming or mulimedia. I'm attracted by wireless, and since it appears that Palm will never release wireless for the T|E, that means an upgrade for me. But I certainly don't feel that I'm missing out. If I can get a good deal I'll consider upgrading, but otherwise, why bother?

I also agree with what has been said on the quality issues. I've definitely had problems with my T|E and I feel that devices like this that cost so much, should be sturdy and reliable.

I do think that Palm powered products are facing serious price competition from the PPCs and that could make a lot of difference. Look at these new Dell Axim X30's for about $250 with bluetooth and Wifi. And with them out you can pick up an X3i, which is practically the same, for less than $200.

I'm very curious (as I'm sure we all are) what the coming months will bring this industry. It seems like the whole focus of the pda market could change dramatically. Surely we'll move past the smartphone fixation and into the media tools presaged by the Zodiac. That seems like the most realistic direction. But I image that batteries will need to keep pace with that level of usage. That's the core technology that we need to build these devices of the future.

Okay, done rambling. This has been a great thread. Glad to see everyone's thoughts on the matter...

[scstraus]

Yeah, the bottom line is that these things are not fully realized in today's PDA's. They are too hard to use and require too much tinkering. If the PDA makers get their act together and make things like video and internet and ebooks simple, they will have a market by the end of this decade. If they don't, they won't.

I would like to see the day where I can just pull up a quick list of books directly from my PDA and have one beamed to me, or when I insert a DVD into my PC I can drag it onto my PDA. This is the level of ease that the average user requires, and honestly I don't do a lot of things like video because it's just too time consuming.

To really watch any amount of video on my PDA, I have to spend almost the same amount of time screwing around to get it on there. These things have to be built into the OS in a simple way which brings the functionality to the average user.

Tapwave's doing a decent job with games, and over the air download works reasonably well on the treo (but much better with handzipper installed). But all this stuff needs to be basic OS functionality to become useful to the other 95% of PDA users.