Future generations of e-book readers

[Ceuse]

and the small indi artists win since they are happy to get noticed as much as possible (since small indie artists doesnt make much money of there music anway).

i think you are allways able to make money out of your art as long as you are able to create a fanbase/intrest and are able to sell it in such a way that people are willing to pay for the phisical form.

for books at the moment i only see the possibility of having a nice artwork and cover since there isnt much extra value or revenue possibility for writers to earn money out of there work (public readings and autograph sessions wont make much money i think )

but as stephen king said many times : he would still write even if no body would read his storys, since he loves writing. most real artist love what they do, make a living from it is very rarely the case for most of them anyway.
If you look at all the fanfiction stories in the web, something like this is the future i think.

[ProDigit]

Just to add 2ct to the main thread:
MP3 files have been around since 1995, after which movie trailers, and short movies where freely downloadable on the internet.
Real movies started when D3vx came out (divx 3), about 5 years later.

It's not that movies are behind nowadays. They are about on equal.
The problem is, that a movie has considerably more of art in it, than music (since it contains both, as well as most movies are over one hour, while mp3's are usually shorter than the commercial on your TV).
So there's this kind of 'guilt' still there in the back of someone's mind, when downloading a movie, that may not be there when downloading music illegally.

Second, many sites like the LATE (not early) Napster (anno ~2005), as well as itunes, and other p2p sites, offered paid versions of music (so automatically the non-paid versions where favored by some), while until recently (with the arrival of Netflix Anno ~2008), there where no real online purchases of movies for download; mainly because movies where too large to download on anything but a highband internet connection, and a stable client had to be found; because downloads online (via HTTP) could get interrupted and aborted for that, losing all the data downloaded!

Most people I knew that where illegal downloaders, knew there was going to come a time when the holes would be plugged, and it would no longer be possible to download illegally. So automatically, most became masters of downloading, before laws became in place to destroy that data.

On the other hand, man has figured out that the data saved on harddrives usually corrupts after about 5 years, 10 the most on DVD's.
So, unless they keep backups of backups of backups (which has a huge costprice on the hardware), the data they downloaded will not remain in their possession forever!

In my opinion it has created a devaluation of music, and this generation needs a new song every week, listening to good songs at most upto 6 months (unlike some '60's or '70's rock songs which lasted upto 2 decades in some people's favorites list!)

[Kevin8or]

Originally Posted by Kumabjorn

My intention was not to rekindle a debate between free vs. paid. What I am curious about is what will happen when a generation that believes the norm to be free media has taken over, particularly as it relates to books and writing. I don't think we are going to change that generation's view regarding free media. Hence, there will come a day when free media becomes the norm. So my simple question is if you can't make money writing, who will write?

If such a day comes, then you'll be looking at a shareware or patronage type of model. People who have disposable income and who care about creative arts will give to -- or buy from -- their favorite authors, musicians, artists, etc.

[Kumabjorn]

Originally Posted by Kevin8or

If such a day comes, then you'll be looking at a shareware or patronage type of model. People who have disposable income and who care about creative arts will give to -- or buy from -- their favorite authors, musicians, artists, etc.

So you believe we will go back to a model similar to the 19th and 18th century when artists were dependent on maeceneas for their livelihood? That is certainly one possible model. A kind of indentured servitude inside a golden cage. I suppose some modern authors think they are in the same situation with big advances from publishers so they ca squeeze out deadlines from them.

[Sweetpea]

Originally Posted by Kumabjorn

This got me thinking, the generation that she belongs to is obviously of the mindset that media is freely available for no cost. The mother and I sort of shared a look and a slight nod both sayings simultaneously "there is no such thing as free media". So the daughter began talking about how many free MP3 songs she had downloaded just last week. Hence, it seems to me that we are raising a generation that thinks there is no need to pay for any kind of media. In my mind, the price we have paid for all the free MP3 songs out there is that the good songwriters turn to other endeavors such as writing film music or musicals rather than writing songs to be recorded and distributed on media.

Movies hasn't been available for download for as long as MP3 songs, so the changes hasn't been as far-reaching yet. Take the new HBO serious Luck, it stars Dustin Hoffman who as far as I know have never appeared in a TV series before. So is this perhaps the future for movies? They will all be made for cable channels?

This leads me to the question of what will happen to books in the future. If her generation expects books to be free in the future, who will write them? I believe it was Samuel Johnson who said "only a blockhead writes, except for money". Does that imply that in the future only blockheads will write?

You could ask the question: how did this happen?

And I'm firm in my believe that it is caused by the industry. People ask for something, and if the industry doesn't want to deliver (even though it is possible), simply because either they are afraid of losing a dime or simply because they are, well, stupid in modern technology, people will look somewhere else. And if it takes time for the industry to pick it up, people will grow used to getting it somewhere else. And it takes a much longer time for people to see the errors of their ways, when the industry finally catches on...

[catsittingstill]

I think if we do wind up with people expecting everything for free, we'll wind up with the only art, music, writing available being fan art. It will be done by people who love it so much they do it for free, but have to spend most of their time on a job that pays the bills, and thus don't have much practice, or much incentive (beyond the love of the art) to improve.

If you like fan-fic, this will be heaven, because fan-fic will be all there is. If you prefer professional writing (or art, or music) filtered by gatekeepers who to some degree help keep the quality higher, not so much.

"Concerts" will be done by people who practice and study as much as possible given that they also work full time at something else, and always expected to have to do that. The difference between the Philharmonic and the local Open Mic night. Now as an amateur musician singer-songwriter myself, I love the idea of people getting back to enjoying music that regular mortals can hope to produce instead of assuming that one-in-a-million musicians are normal and everyone who can't make that level is lame. But I wonder if everyone feels the same.

On the other hand I'm not sure we are stuck with this scenario. Some writers and artists I know of are going to a crowdfunding model, where they produce art not so much for one patron (though sometimes one partron funds a particular work) but for groups of people who club together to pay for something. It's a bit early to say this is the wave of the future, but it does strike me as one alternative both to the present system, and to "art as slushpile."

[ilovejedd]

Originally Posted by catsittingstill

I think if we do wind up with people expecting everything for free, we'll wind up with the only art, music, writing available being fan art. It will be done by people who love it so much they do it for free, but have to spend most of their time on a job that pays the bills, and thus don't have much practice, or much incentive (beyond the love of the art) to improve.

If you like fan-fic, this will be heaven, because fan-fic will be all there is. If you prefer professional writing (or art, or music) filtered by gatekeepers who to some degree help keep the quality higher, not so much.

Fanart and fanfiction are still based on original works. As someone who regularly switches fandoms, without new original work to use as basis, fan-made content will also be limited.

[Giggleton]

Originally Posted by Kumabjorn

Movies hasn't been available for download for as long as MP3 songs, so the changes hasn't been as far-reaching yet. Take the new HBO serious Luck, it stars Dustin Hoffman who as far as I know have never appeared in a TV series before. So is this perhaps the future for movies? They will all be made for cable channels?

This leads me to the question of what will happen to books in the future. If her generation expects books to be free in the future, who will write them? I believe it was Samuel Johnson who said "only a blockhead writes, except for money". Does that imply that in the future only blockheads will write?

Established entertainment commodities and distributors will be able garner payments pre-conception from their previously established audiences. Hopefully these payments will be enough for the producers.

I would much like a centralized and mirrored server containing every and any text that anyone cares enough to upload, accessible at all times by anyone everywhere. I think we can all agree that this would be a good thing yes?

As far as payments go, if we must insist on using monies to exchange goods, then access to the aforementioned server could be prorated based on your income. If you have no income then your access could be subsidized by those whose income is greater than yours or something like that. This would of course require an end to anonymity and unique ip addresses for everyone.

In this way, those who wish to write for money/goods could still do so. That's what we're moving towards right?? What is the point of this thing (the network) if not to freely share information??

[Exciter]

New generation "user" here. I like to play PC games. Then I was a kid, i didn't had money, nor possibility to pay, so i pirated everything. Now i have work and paypal and steam etc. So now i buy lots of these old games because i like to support developers hoping they keep making tease good games. But i buy only the best of them. Also I purchase many new games, even those that i will newer install! Just because I know developers and wish to support them. And many gamers do that. Buy but not play. Do you know any sane book reader doing like that?
I recently bought Kindle and after a long brake started to read books. I don't know any new writer that i may like. There are so many of them. And for now I don't plan buying any books. Prices for ebooks is really too high for me. So just downloaded tens of thousands of them. If i will find that i like and it will be affordable, probably I will pay for it.

[ApK]

Originally Posted by rkomar

Reading other posts is no replacement for debating the topic yourself when it comes to understanding the issues.

Correct, it is not a replacement. It should be a prerequisite.

ApK

[apbschmitz]

Originally Posted by Kumabjorn

So my simple question is if you can't make money writing, who will write?

Most people don't really make any money now writing. My prediction is that even greater numbers of people will not make money writing in the future. They will find that though they give their books away in the hope of attracting an audience, still most people won't read their books because just about all titles are free. The daunting number of free titles on most people's reading devices will induce a condition that will become a diagnosis: eReader Despair. Faced with impossible choices — where even to start? — many people will give up on reading in favor of watching YouTube videos obsessively. An innovator will offer a self-publishing how-to title that advocates paying readers to download and actually read your book. Writers will begrudgingly admit that this is a cost saving strategy that is more effective than the endless tweets, blog and forum posts they previously created to promote their work. Eventually only the rich and college creative writing professors will be able to afford to be writers, which will return us roughly to where we were ten years ago. History really is cyclical.

[Steven Lyle Jordan]

Originally Posted by Ralph Sir Edward

And that's the problem for all creators today. There's so much out there for the customers to choose from. Why should they choose yours?

The question I wrestle with every day. (And so far, it pins me like a sumo wrestler on a four-eyed nerd every time.)

Originally Posted by rkomar

Reading other posts is no replacement for debating the topic yourself when it comes to understanding the issues. And I _have_ noticed some moderation in the views of those who have discussed topics here. There is just too much good from letting people work out things for themselves to stop them because others have already done it first.

That's the problem, though: A lot of endless debate, and nothing changing or getting done. Who are we kidding? We're not solving the problems, we're just making noise in the corner while people like Jeff Bezos and (formerly) Steve Jobs act.

[Ceuse]

Originally Posted by Steven Lyle Jordan

That's the problem, though: A lot of endless debate, and nothing changing or getting done. Who are we kidding? We're not solving the problems, we're just making noise in the corner while people like Jeff Bezos and (formerly) Steve Jobs act.

then we can just close down 99% of the threads or forum of cause we dont act, we can just state our reaction to the current model(s) and make sugesstions to better/worse the situation.
but everyone of us acts with there purse. and perhaps one or two participants change there behaviour comming out of a discussion even a little bit. it wont change the game, but overall conusmer reaction basicly makes ppl like steve jobs or jeff bezos act

also i just like discussing stuff im intrested in and have an own oppinion about

[Giggleton]

Originally Posted by Exciter

And for now I don't plan buying any books. Prices for ebooks is really too high for me. So just downloaded tens of thousands of them. If i will find that i like and it will be affordable, probably I will pay for it.

That's about all anyone can do, take what you will, give what you can.

[SteveEisenberg]

Originally Posted by Kumabjorn

So you believe we will go back to a model similar to the 19th and 18th century when artists were dependent on maeceneas for their livelihood?

A lot of people paid for books back then. It's true that authors didn't get foreign royalties, but there was domestic revenue.

There will continue to be revenue from the large group of people whose moral values lead them to pay for intellectual property even if they could safely get it for free. And then there are the cautious types who won't do something they fear is illegal, even if based on misunderstanding.

As for patrons of the arts, think higher education. A large portion of good non-fiction -- and a lot of serious fiction -- is already written by faculty. Maybe they are doing it to get a tenure-track position. Or maybe they are doing it to get tenure. Or maybe they think it's part of their job. Or maybe they like doing it, and have a job that gives them the time needed to write.

When you earn less for each book, there's pressure to write more.* Also, disintermediation of publishing houses means less careful editing. But I don't think you will see a shortage of new books.

_____________________
* It's often said that Sir Walter Scott never again wrote a book as good as Ivanhoe because financial problems forced him to frequently churn out new novels. If his US publishers had paid him royalties, he might have produced another real classic, but fewer total titles.