Germany: eBooks not yet a mass market product

[Feylamia]

amazon is rumored to start a German Kindle store soon - I assume that once the Kindle is available on amazon.de, the sales will increase quite a bit and the eBook will lose its geek stigma.

[CommonReader]

Originally Posted by Feylamia

amazon is rumored to start a German Kindle store soon - I assume that once the Kindle is available on amazon.de, the sales will increase quite a bit and the eBook will lose its geek stigma.

I'm not so sure about that. Is there any non English speaking market where Amazon has achieved such a dominant position as it has in the US.
If publishers aren't interested in promoting ebooks, they are even less interested in ending up with one company dominating a complete sales channel. Why should publishers be willing to help Amazon in the ebook market?

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by Feylamia

amazon is rumored to start a German Kindle store soon - I assume that once the Kindle is available on amazon.de, the sales will increase quite a bit and the eBook will lose its geek stigma.

No rumor; they were publicly advertising for content acquisition managers for France and Germany just a couple weeks back.

As for how successful Kindle might be, well; How successful is amazon.de right now? How long have they been in Germany and what print book market share do they command? How about their other products? CDs, DVDs, games, electronics, etc...

The single most important promotional vehicle for Kindle is the Amazon home page so if Amazon has a significant online presence, Kindle will be front and center every time people go to shop at Amazon. Add in its generally lower prices and it shouldn't have trouble getting visibility outside the hobbyist community.

Also, consider that Amazon is actively selling Kindle in local retail chains in several european countries so they won't be limited to online promotion...

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by CommonReader

Why should publishers be willing to help Amazon in the ebook market?

To make money, of course.
The issue isn't whether publishers should help Amazon, but rather will they let Amazon help them make money.

Kindle is *already* a global product and people with Kindles buy a *lot* of books. The installed ebook reader base make be small in some markets but it is growing in all of them. And Kindle is not going away. It is just a matter of time before it becomes too big to ignore.

At this point in time, publishers' only choice is whether to support ebooks or not.

If they choose to make money off ebooks they must support *all* significant players; Kindle, Apple, ADEPT, and Google. Otherwise they would be leaving money on the table for their competitors and no executive will last long in his office if he cedes entire segments of a growing market to his competitors out of spite.

(Edit: And bear in mind that the big 6 are *already* supporting ebooks on Kindle in most markets. They *know* how much money Amazon makes for them. So why "support" Kindle in one market and not another? When Kindle launches a German-language--or French or Spanish--ebookstore they won't lack for books from the BPHs.)

Money talks and in the language of money, Kindle talks loud.

[Feylamia]

Originally Posted by CommonReader

I'm not so sure about that. Is there any non English speaking market where Amazon has achieved such a dominant position as it has in the US.

Originally Posted by fjtorres

As for how successful Kindle might be, well; How successful is amazon.de right now? How long have they been in Germany and what print book market share do they command? How about their other products? CDs, DVDs, games, electronics, etc...

amazon's pretty much _the_ place to shop online here. The German version has been around for over ten years.

Originally Posted by fjtorres

No rumor; they were publicly advertising for content acquisition managers for France and Germany just a couple weeks back.

Aye, but there is no official word on when exactly the local kindle stores are going to go online afaik.

Originally Posted by fjtorres

The single most important promotional vehicle for Kindle is the Amazon home page so if Amazon has a significant online presence, Kindle will be front and center every time people go to shop at Amazon. Add in its generally lower prices and it shouldn't have trouble getting visibility outside the hobbyist community.

I agree.

One of amazon's major competitors already put a note on their website saying that their ebooks won't work on the kindle. That's pretty big considering that right now amazon don't even sell it here and you have to order it via the US website. (And thus pay much more money for the device. $280 for the 3G version, to be exact.)

[CommonReader]

Originally Posted by fjtorres

To make money, of course.
The issue isn't whether publishers should help Amazon, but rather will they let Amazon help them make money.

Kindle is *already* a global product and people with Kindles buy a *lot* of books. The installed ebook reader base make be small in some markets but it is growing in all of them. And Kindle is not going away. It is just a matter of time before it becomes too big to ignore.

At this point in time, publishers' only choice is whether to support ebooks or not.

The point is if they will make any additional money. It would be rather pointless to replace e.g. revue of 1 million € selling a book as paper book with 600,000 € selling the same book as ebook for Kindle. Will people who buy books via Kindle buy so many more books than they would have bought as paper books to make it a good business for the publishers.

Originally Posted by fjtorres

If they choose to make money off ebooks they must support *all* significant players; Kindle, Apple, ADEPT, and Google. Otherwise they would be leaving money on the table for their competitors and no executive will last long in his office if he cedes entire segments of a growing market to his competitors out of spite.

(Edit: And bear in mind that the big 6 are *already* supporting ebooks on Kindle in most markets. They *know* how much money Amazon makes for them. So why "support" Kindle in one market and not another? When Kindle launches a German-language--or French or Spanish--ebookstore they won't lack for books from the BPHs.)

Money talks and in the language of money, Kindle talks loud.

This basically assumes that books are something of a commodity. If you don't get the book by author A for your Kindle you will buy the book by author B instead. Perhaps the market does work that way but I would have rather assumed that people would buy the book written by author A as a paper book instead of buying something different, just because the other book happens to be available for Kindle.

[DixieGal]

Originally Posted by CommonReader

The point is if they will make any additional money. It would be rather pointless to replace e.g. revue of 1 million € selling a book as paper book with 600,000 € selling the same book as ebook for Kindle. Will people who buy books via Kindle buy so many more books than they would have bought as paper books to make it a good business for the publishers.
.

That sort of says to me that you are arguing for an "either-or" scenario. Instead, it seems to me that sales should increase, with combined pbook and ebook sales. Amazon is entitled to as high of a percentage as it can get. Publishers know that the powerhouse selling machine that is Amazon will help them make up the cost of doing business with them in increased volume of sales. It is win-win.

[CommonReader]

I doubt it. As for now Amazon isn't nearly as big a player in the German book market as it is in the US and I hope it stays that way. Most people have a bookshop in their vicinity that can obtain books for the same price as Amazon overnight. It would be a pity to lose that bookshop culture.

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by CommonReader

The point is if they will make any additional money. It would be rather pointless to replace e.g. revue of 1 million € selling a book as paper book with 600,000 € selling the same book as ebook for Kindle. Will people who buy books via Kindle buy so many more books than they would have bought as paper books to make it a good business for the publishers.



This basically assumes that books are something of a commodity. If you don't get the book by author A for your Kindle you will buy the book by author B instead. Perhaps the market does work that way but I would have rather assumed that people would buy the book written by author A as a paper book instead of buying something different, just because the other book happens to be available for Kindle.

First, it is too early to tell what the book industry will look like after the dust settles from the disruption caused by the mainstreaming of ebooks. All we have are incipient trends...

That said, the trends have the high-overhead BPHS scared spitless precisely because they fear commoditization and cannibalization. The rise of the US$0.99 ebook, the reduced BPH aggregate market share in ebooks vs print, Agency pricing, the war against libraries, the fights over author royalties; all these are hints of where the BPH fear the market is headed and how they hope to protect their bloated top-heavy operations.
What they are *not* doing is opting out of ebooks altogether.
And that is precisely because they fear long term commoditization and cannibalization; they fear being the last guy selling buggy whips. In other words, they understand that if their print book sales are to be cannibalized it is better they be cannibalized by their own high-priced ebooks rather than by somebody else's cheap ebooks.
It really doesn't matter if we think commoditization and/or cannibalization is going to happen, or the extent to which we may think it'll happen; it is enough that the BPHs fear it and are acting on that fear.
And they are acting to exploit ebook mainstreaming not ignore it.

When Amazon/Kobo/Apple come to Germany/France/Spain/Italy/Poland/etc they'll have more than enough content to stock their ebookstores.
Now, whether "when" is 2011,12, or 13 is unclear but the question is when, not if.
There is too much money at stake.
The djinn is out of the bottle.

[Andrew H.]

Originally Posted by CommonReader

The point is if they will make any additional money. It would be rather pointless to replace e.g. revue of 1 million € selling a book as paper book with 600,000 € selling the same book as ebook for Kindle. Will people who buy books via Kindle buy so many more books than they would have bought as paper books to make it a good business for the publishers.

I'm not sure how the publishers lose money here, though, as Amazon won't be able to charge less for e-books than for paper books, due to German no-discount laws.

And Kindle readers, at least in the US, do tend to buy more books, although I'm not sure what effect this has on the bottom line.

This basically assumes that books are something of a commodity. If you don't get the book by author A for your Kindle you will buy the book by author B instead. Perhaps the market does work that way but I would have rather assumed that people would buy the book written by author A as a paper book instead of buying something different, just because the other book happens to be available for Kindle.

I think it works both ways. If you're looking for a particular book, or for something by a particular author, you probably won't substitute a different book just because it is available on your kindle.

On the other hand, if you are potentially interested in a number of books, you may choose ones available for the Kindle over those not available. Likewise, if you are just browsing for something to read, you may limit yourself to what's available for the Kindle.

[rogue_librarian]

Originally Posted by Andrew H.

... Amazon won't be able to charge less for e-books than for paper books, due to German no-discount laws.

That's not what the law says. Basically, publishers dictate prices, but there is no obligation to sell ebooks for the same price as pbooks. It's just that German ebooks will cost the same everywhere, just as pbooks do.

[Andrew H.]

Originally Posted by rogue_librarian

That's not what the law says. Basically, publishers dictate prices, but there is no obligation to sell ebooks for the same price as pbooks. It's just that German ebooks will cost the same everywhere, just as pbooks do.

Interesting; are you sure that's right? I took a look at the book price law, but it didn't really distinguish between e-books and regular books, and a lot of the articles on e-books in Germany mention that they are more expensive because they have to pay the software VAT and not the book VAT. (Although of course the fact that publishers could charge less for e-books doesn't mean that they are).

[rogue_librarian]

Originally Posted by Andrew H.

I took a look at the book price law, but it didn't really distinguish between e-books and regular books

Actually, sec. 2 (1) lit. 3 of the applicable "Law on the National Book Price Maintenance" (Buchpreisbindungsgesetz) mentions "products that reproduce or substitute books" and "must be considered predominantly typical for publishers or booksellers". (Produkte, die Bücher ... reproduzieren oder substituieren und ... als überwiegend verlags- oder buchhandelstypisch anzusehen sind)

Originally the German Booksellers' Association argued that fixed prices do not apply to ebooks at all; they've only changed their position in 2008 (German statement). As far as I can tell ebooks are now considered another edition of the same book; just as paperbacks don't have to cost the same as hardcovers there's of course nothing that prevents publishers from setting a lower price for their ebooks as opposed to pbooks.

a lot of the articles on e-books in Germany mention that they are more expensive because they have to pay the software VAT and not the book VAT.

Yes, pbooks are taxed at a reduced rate of 7% VAT while ebooks are onsidered "software" with the full rate of 19%.

(Although of course the fact that publishers could charge less for e-books doesn't mean that they are).

They don't, as a rule. Publishers who fear cannibalization of the lucrative HC market set ebook prices artificially high.

[Feylamia]

Originally Posted by CommonReader

I doubt it. As for now Amazon isn't nearly as big a player in the German book market as it is in the US and I hope it stays that way. Most people have a bookshop in their vicinity that can obtain books for the same price as Amazon overnight. It would be a pity to lose that bookshop culture.

amazon is quite a big player though (in 2007, more than half the books bought online were bought from them (source) and online sales have increased a LOT since then) and I know a lot of people who would rather order books online than buy them in a shop because it's easier that way.

[Andrew H.]

Originally Posted by rogue_librarian

Actually, sec. 2 (1) lit. 3 of the applicable "Law on the National Book Price Maintenance" (Buchpreisbindungsgesetz) mentions "products that reproduce or substitute books" and "must be considered predominantly typical for publishers or booksellers". (Produkte, die Bücher ... reproduzieren oder substituieren und ... als überwiegend verlags- oder buchhandelstypisch anzusehen sind)

Right, I saw that, and it clearly includes e-books as books - what I didn't see was whether they would count as the same book or not.

Originally the German Booksellers' Association argued that fixed prices do not apply to ebooks at all; they've only changed their position in 2008 (German statement).

Originally treating them like audio books shows a certain lack of farsightedness...

As far as I can tell ebooks are now considered another edition of the same book; just as paperbacks don't have to cost the same as hardcovers there's of course nothing that prevents publishers from setting a lower price for their ebooks as opposed to pbooks.

Yeah, I'm just surprised that there's nothing more specific. Although with the publishers setting prices for both formats, I suppose it may not matter much (although it would allow them to set a lower price to equalize the price+VAT).