eBook sales are down 17%

[crossi]

They do serve a purpose of vetting book quality and they are the only ones that could afford million dollar advances for authors. But I would prefer to see a lot of smaller specialty publishers whose expertize in their given field would be better and give readers a chance of finding specific publishers whose taste better aligns with their own instead of just a few gigantic publishers who do everything. I would also not mind if the big advances disappeared forever in favor of smaller to no advances but much larger share of the price and 5 yr contracts subject to renewal if both parties wish it. Rip off your author and they'll take their books somewhere else.

[ZodWallop]

Originally Posted by crossi

They do serve a purpose of vetting book quality and they are the only ones that could afford million dollar advances for authors. But I would prefer to see a lot of smaller specialty publishers whose expertize in their given field would be better and give readers a chance of finding specific publishers whose taste better aligns with their own instead of just a few gigantic publishers who do everything. I would also not mind if the big advances disappeared forever in favor of smaller to no advances but much larger share of the price and 5 yr contracts subject to renewal if both parties wish it. Rip off your author and they'll take their books somewhere else.

I think there's room for both.

One thing I've enjoyed in the e-book world: Books that were mid-tier books from the big publishers in the sixties through the eighties that have gone out of print and have been brought back as self published/small publisher e-books.

That way you get the indie price, but the BPH quality editing.

[Cinisajoy]

Originally Posted by ZodWallop

I think there's room for both.

One thing I've enjoyed in the e-book world: Books that were mid-tier books from the big publishers in the sixties through the eighties that have gone out of print and have been brought back as self published/small publisher e-books.

That way you get the indie price, but the BPH quality editing.

Some BPH books from the era you described are now being put out by BPH, and sometimes go on sale. Easy way to tell. In the price box it says price set by Random House or other BPH.

[pwalker8]

Originally Posted by ZodWallop

No doubt you are correct. The hostility you see to the big publishers here stems from their actions to stymie the e-book market when it was just beginning to flourish.

You would think they would have watched what happened with the record companies and learned a lesson from it. They learned alright. But their reaction was way off, forcing popular bookselling sites to close and making Amazon even more powerful (the exact opposite of what they were trying to do),

I still think we need the big publishers and it does feel like less of a crapshoot buying a book from a new author published by them than one that is self published. They serve a purpose.

Part of the reason that I post about Jerry Pournelle is that I'm pretty sure the issue with ebooks was with the authors rather than the publishers. Remember the last three Wheel of Time books? They were held back for ebooks not because the publisher wanted to, but rather because Jordan's widow wanted to make sure they made the NYT best seller list and she was worried that ebook sales would hurt that goal.

A lot of authors were (and many still are) worried about piracy and how that would effect sales long term. For the most part, publishers will go along with the author's wishes, assuming the author expresses those wishes.

Once again, recheck your timeline. Many of those popular ebook sites had either already closed or had been bought out before agency pricing became a thing. Those sites were harmed a lot more by Amazon's loss leaders than they were by the publishers.

[pwalker8]

Originally Posted by crossi

They do serve a purpose of vetting book quality and they are the only ones that could afford million dollar advances for authors. But I would prefer to see a lot of smaller specialty publishers whose expertize in their given field would be better and give readers a chance of finding specific publishers whose taste better aligns with their own instead of just a few gigantic publishers who do everything. I would also not mind if the big advances disappeared forever in favor of smaller to no advances but much larger share of the price and 5 yr contracts subject to renewal if both parties wish it. Rip off your author and they'll take their books somewhere else.

Both already exist and have existed for a long time. I just bought a book my Mike Duncan, Storm before the Storm, published by one of the imprints from Perseus Books Group. With all the talk of the Big 5 publishers, the publishing world isn't nearly that monolithic.

The publishing world has spun off imprints, or even small publishing houses based on particular specializations and personalities. There are hundreds of them out there.

[pwalker8]

Originally Posted by ZodWallop

I think there's room for both.

One thing I've enjoyed in the e-book world: Books that were mid-tier books from the big publishers in the sixties through the eighties that have gone out of print and have been brought back as self published/small publisher e-books.

That way you get the indie price, but the BPH quality editing.

Since I like a lot of the same backlist from that time period (see the backlist thread in the recommendations forum), I tend to pay a lot of attention to what is said about various books and series that I'm interested in.

Some authors actively pursue ebooks, others are happy to let the publishers deal with it. Most books from that time require scanning since it's pretty rare for such books to already be in digital format. So you still have to deal with ebooks that were poorly edited from the stand point of scanning errors. That's getting better as scanning technology improves, but it still exists.

[ZodWallop]

Originally Posted by pwalker8

Since I like a lot of the same backlist from that time period (see the backlist thread in the recommendations forum), I tend to pay a lot of attention to what is said about various books and series that I'm interested in.

Some authors actively pursue ebooks, others are happy to let the publishers deal with it. Most books from that time require scanning since it's pretty rare for such books to already be in digital format. So you still have to deal with ebooks that were poorly edited from the stand point of scanning errors. That's getting better as scanning technology improves, but it still exists.

Oh sure. OCR errors will likely always be a thing (though things have gotten better). By editing, I meant the book will likely at least be competent. It was at least good enough to be put out by professionals.

Of course, major publishers have put out some garbage and some self-pubbed is so polished you can see your reflection. But it's still a good general rule of thumb that works for me.

(And I'll go search out the backlist thread in the recommendations forum.)

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by pwalker8

Both already exist and have existed for a long time. I just bought a book my Mike Duncan, Storm before the Storm, published by one of the imprints from Perseus Books Group. With all the talk of the Big 5 publishers, the publishing world isn't nearly that monolithic.

The publishing world has spun off imprints, or even small publishing houses based on particular specializations and personalities. There are hundreds of them out there.

Perseus is owned by Hachette.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/03/0...eus-books.html

Most of the BPHs own dozens of not hundreds of imprints that used to be separate and independent publishing houses. Those imprints do not bid for manuscripts independently. Rather, only one imprint in each BPH bids do where once an author had hundreds of potential landing sites for their book they now have 5 and maybe a few smaller ones.
And that is assuming their agent doesn't steer the manuscript at a bargain price to a publisher they have close ties to.

It's hard to be more monolithic than that but they do keep trying.

The latest trick is refusing to deal at all unless the price includes all rights, foreign, domestic, sufio, and even movie. Of course, the offered price is the same as domestic print-only deals of a few years back.

BPH vetting comes at a steep price to both consumers and authors. And it keeps on getting steeper.

[sjfan]

Originally Posted by 4691mls

Being nearsighted, even though I am older, I can still see well to read without my glasses.

Yep. I'm glad I never opted for LASIK (my dad's an ophthalmologist and recommended against it because of this tradeoff, since I was already over 30 when I was thinking about it).

[darryl]

Originally Posted by pwalker8

There is a whole lot of wishful thinking and projection going on in this thread.

The publishing industry is going through the same thing that the music industry did 10 years ago and we are seeing the exact same predictions that we saw back them. Those predictions, none of which came true, are about as likely to be accurate this time around. There was a lot of "at last those evil record companies are going to get what's coming to them".

In the music industry, we saw the market splinter quite a bit. The old record companies still exist and still make money, but there are many more options available to musicians. Some artists started up their own record label, something that had be an option for the big names, but finally became an option for the smaller artists as equipment costs went down and distribution options opened up. Before touring was a way of getting your latest record noticed, now artists make significant money touring Other bands make money on YouTube, via web pages, via streaming music, all sorts of ways. It's a very different landscape, but artists still make money and many of the same players are still around.

That's the process that the publishing industry is starting to go through. It's not real surprising that book sales in stores are down, because people are buying books online, are buying ebooks and the audiobook industry is booming. I'll buy both an ebook and an audiobook, but I suspect that I'm very much in the minority for that.

As technology and laws change, I expect that we will see the market fracture even more. The big name publishers will still be around, but I suspect there will be a lot of smaller publishers out there. Print on Demand is more and more affordable and better quality. We see more and more authors experiment with self publishing and different types of media. Authors are figuring out a lot of different ways to make money, and for the most part, it's all very hard to measure. We see the same issue in political polling. Polls are frequently wildly inaccurate because many of the assumptions baked into the polls are no longer accurate. People who estimate books sales have the same issue. Many of the assumptions that are baked into their models aren't particularly accurate.

I agree with a lot of what you say here. I don't think Big Publishing is going anywhere soon. They have intellectual property rights that will see them remain relevant for many years, even if they closed up shop today and just relied on exploiting these rights. I think what role they play in the future depends heavily on the decisions they make now, and perhaps some of the decisions they have already made. Music is not a bad example. The record companies made many mistakes initially and did not adapt very well. As a result, Apple's ITunes filled a profitable role which they themselves had the box seat to fill had their leaders at the time had more vision. But it's hardly fair to blame people for not being visionaries. So few are.

But the record labels did adapt in time to save themselves and maintain a major and profitable role. Using your music industry analogy I would say the Big Publishers are still largely in the denial and obstruction phase. They are pursuing short term goals at the expense of their role in the industry in the long term future. The direction they are taking at the moment, at least to me, seems to lead to oblivion, a future of exploiting their existing intellectual property rights and little else and gradually winding down to nothing over more than a century. They still have time to retain for themselves a major role in the future, as it appears record companies have done. Personally, I have no love for these organisations and will not shed a tear at their decline. But realistically, it is not yet too late for them. But there will come a day when it is.

[pwalker8]

Originally Posted by fjtorres

Perseus is owned by Hachette.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/03/0...eus-books.html

Most of the BPHs own dozens of not hundreds of imprints that used to be separate and independent publishing houses. Those imprints do not bid for manuscripts independently. Rather, only one imprint in each BPH bids do where once an author had hundreds of potential landing sites for their book they now have 5 and maybe a few smaller ones.
And that is assuming their agent doesn't steer the manuscript at a bargain price to a publisher they have close ties to.

It's hard to be more monolithic than that but they do keep trying.

The latest trick is refusing to deal at all unless the price includes all rights, foreign, domestic, sufio, and even movie. Of course, the offered price is the same as domestic print-only deals of a few years back.

BPH vetting comes at a steep price to both consumers and authors. And it keeps on getting steeper.

It is now, but wasn't when Duncan signed his contract. Doesn't take away from the main point that there are many, many small publishing companies that are still out there. It is the nature of business in general that companies start up, get bought or go out of business all the time. It's no where near as monolithic as you portray it.

[pwalker8]

Originally Posted by sjfan

Yep. I'm glad I never opted for LASIK (my dad's an ophthalmologist and recommended against it because of this tradeoff, since I was already over 30 when I was thinking about it).

I was getting pretty close to the point where I needed bi-foals when I had Lasik about 20 years ago. Surprisingly, it cleared up my my need for reading glasses as well as my regular glasses. It doesn't normally work that way.

[pwalker8]

Originally Posted by darryl

I agree with a lot of what you say here. I don't think Big Publishing is going anywhere soon. They have intellectual property rights that will see them remain relevant for many years, even if they closed up shop today and just relied on exploiting these rights. I think what role they play in the future depends heavily on the decisions they make now, and perhaps some of the decisions they have already made. Music is not a bad example. The record companies made many mistakes initially and did not adapt very well. As a result, Apple's ITunes filled a profitable role which they themselves had the box seat to fill had their leaders at the time had more vision. But it's hardly fair to blame people for not being visionaries. So few are.

But the record labels did adapt in time to save themselves and maintain a major and profitable role. Using your music industry analogy I would say the Big Publishers are still largely in the denial and obstruction phase. They are pursuing short term goals at the expense of their role in the industry in the long term future. The direction they are taking at the moment, at least to me, seems to lead to oblivion, a future of exploiting their existing intellectual property rights and little else and gradually winding down to nothing over more than a century. They still have time to retain for themselves a major role in the future, as it appears record companies have done. Personally, I have no love for these organisations and will not shed a tear at their decline. But realistically, it is not yet too late for them. But there will come a day when it is.

I'm not seeing why you think this. I can't think of a single book written in the last 10 years that I wanted that wasn't available as an e-book. I'm sure there must be some out there, but it's very much a rarity. What exactly do you think they are obstructing and in denial about? DRM? Book prices?

[darryl]

Originally Posted by pwalker8

I'm not seeing why you think this. I can't think of a single book written in the last 10 years that I wanted that wasn't available as an e-book. I'm sure there must be some out there, but it's very much a rarity. What exactly do you think they are obstructing and in denial about? DRM? Book prices?

Many things, though I suspect you will not agree. I will discuss just some of what I see as the major ones here. Certainly ebook pricing. I believe that they are deliberately seeking to slow ebook adoption in order to preserve their print book market for as long as possible. This may not be an irrational tactic from their point of view, and it does seem to be working to some extent. But it is a short term tactic and a dangerous one for them. It is detrimental to their authors, who bear the brunt of this tactic. They are losing market share and have stood idly by and watched the development of a huge and growing market in which they play no role. At the same time, they delude themselves that their product is so superior that it is in essence a market of its own, and not in competition with the cheaper Indie market. On the supply side, their response to much better deals for authors in the Indie market has not, as one would expect, been to themselves offer better deals for authors. It has been to offer even worse terms, slash advances, cut many authors and engage in a rights grab. Their source of best selling authors in the future must surely be from the Indie ranks, and to attract such authors they will have to offer very good terms indeed and accept only limited rights. I will be interested to observe what their strategy is as their mega selling authors cease to write new books. Perhaps they do have an intelligent strategy to transition to the new state of affairs, and this is just a rational strategy to maximise their profits in the meantime. But I can't personally perceive such a strategy. All I can see so far is denial and short-sightedness and lost opportunities.

Finally, to return to your music industry analogy once more, imagine Amazon had not come along when it did. Certainly as better reading devices came along there would likely have been increasing piracy. Perhaps a Napster equivalent would have arisen, or simply a trade through the various file sharing systems. Publishers would possibly have offered ebooks in some form, no doubt at ridiculous prices, much as the record labels did with music files at different times. When Apple came along with IBooks it would have dominated distribution of ebooks, much as it did music. Or imagine the music industry with a timely Amazon. Apple may never have bothered with ITunes because it would have had to compete on price with an established player with deep pockets. But the one thing that could have happened in both Industries but did not is the established players embracing the new format and offering and controlling it themselves. Because they made the choice to take the safe road and not jeopardise their existing business model, which of course others then did anyway.

[ZodWallop]

Originally Posted by pwalker8

Once again, recheck your timeline. Many of those popular ebook sites had either already closed or had been bought out before agency pricing became a thing. Those sites were harmed a lot more by Amazon's loss leaders than they were by the publishers.

I meant to address this earlier, but I was at work.

Indie E-Book Retailer Books On Board Halts E-book Sales - Livolsi has been critical of how the switch to the agency pricing model was implemented from the beginning and voiced complaints that it was organized strictly to benefit the big retail players and “devastated,” independent e-book sellers.

Indie ebooktailers and the Agency Model: Where Are They Now? - It’s ironic that the publishers who were going to level the playing field amongst retailers pretty much now only have their titles available on B&N and Amazon.

RIP Fictionwise? - Looks like Fictionwise is becoming more obsolete by the day. During the spring they discontinued their membership program in the face of the agency pricing changes.