Article on ebook profits

[tompe]

Originally Posted by elcreative

And these connections are and always will be free??? Or do I continue to pay (even if micro-payments) every time I want to access my books... if I'm still allowed to actually own books when they float in the cloud...

You use your flat rate or similar that you need anyway to be always connected to the net.

But you are misunderstanding. Services like DropBox is conceptually in the cloud. And you own the devices that contains most of the copies of your data.

[elcreative]

So how does my "flat rate" work... I am in the UK... my Broadband connection is at my home... if I want to connect from anywhere else that doesn't happen to have a free WiFi link then I have to pay...this applies to anywhere out of range of my house as well ie most of the world... I don't need to be always connected to the net, I have both a life and very limited finances...

Originally Posted by tompe

You use your flat rate or similar that you need anyway to be always connected to the net.

[tompe]

Originally Posted by elcreative

So how does my "flat rate" work... I am in the UK... my Broadband connection is at my home... if I want to connect from anywhere else that doesn't happen to have a free WiFi link then I have to pay...this applies to anywhere out of range of my house as well ie most of the world... I don't need to be always connected to the net, I have both a life and very limited finances...

Well, soon you will probably need it. It will be assumed that everybody can access the net for time tables and booking things. The norm will be to always be connected to the net.

[elcreative]

Oooh, very fair... so now the norm is everybody accessing the internet all the time... wow, penetration levels must have suddenly jumped, there's no financial crisis and the government is paying for everything... and I still believe in Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy... It's going to be some time yet before we enter the wonderful world of universal internet access...

Originally Posted by tompe

Well, soon you will probably need it. It will be assumed that everybody can access the net for time tables and booking things. The norm will be to always be connected to the net.

[murraypaul]

Originally Posted by Andrew H.

Then you should buy a paper book because it doesn't sound like e-books will meet your needs. It's not like publishers make any additional money because you can't lend, resell, or donate e-books.

Of course they do.
If I can't sell it, it means someone else can't buy it. There is no downward pressure on prices as there is no second hand market to compete with. Combine that with some publishers not providing eBooks to libraries (and that will only increase) and you have established a single source of supply.
Lack of price competition means higher prices, that is just simple economics.

[Highroller]

Yup. Like I said, I am good with limitations of an e-book as LONG as its priced accordingly. The publishers/distrib. aren't pricing accordingly when they want to charge as much for the e-book as for the paper book. They will keep on driving people to download from torrents if that is the attitude they stick with.

[Andrew H.]

Originally Posted by Highroller

They will keep on driving people to download from torrents if that is the attitude they stick with.

You keep saying this, but it flies in the face of the fact that e-books sales tripled in the US in 2010, despite agency pricing. Most people seem to just want a convenient way to buy books and aren't really concerned about other issues.

[vaughnmr]

Originally Posted by Andrew H.

You keep saying this, but it flies in the face of the fact that e-books sales tripled in the US in 2010, despite agency pricing. Most people seem to just want a convenient way to buy books and aren't really concerned about other issues.

From what I was seeing, the non-agency folks did a LOT better than the cartel. And in my area, a LOT of non-techie ebook readers are aware of the high prices and don't like it. Combine that with the fact that in some cases the cartel broke the promise to drop prices when pbook is released, and I think this will be an interesting year for them.

[Elfwreck]

Originally Posted by vaughnmr

From what I was seeing, the non-agency folks did a LOT better than the cartel. And in my area, a LOT of non-techie ebook readers are aware of the high prices and don't like it. Combine that with the fact that in some cases the cartel broke the promise to drop prices when pbook is released, and I think this will be an interesting year for them.

Much as I'd like to believe that, I think we've got another year or two before mainstream buyers really notice the problems with DRM and agency pricing. Last year saw a serge in e-readers; this year, they were a common gift item--but most of the people who got them don't even know that they can get ebooks in places other than the store attached to their devices.

It'll take a while for that information to spread out to people who haven't been avidly following ebook news for much of the last decade.

I think that it *will* get out, and torrents and fileswap methods for ebooks will quietly grow, because publishers will rant about Those Evil Pirates but try hard not to mention any details (because any details they mention can be googled & lead to more Evil Piracy). And of course, they won't mention the indie ebook stores, because those don't have DRM and the big publishers refuse to be carried in them--which means that, as people discover indie stores and legit free ebook sites, they'll feel the publishers have been trying to hide the competition from them.

And then there's the hassle of tracking down a torrent for a free PDF of an ebook they bought on Amazon but won't work on their new Nook, which they didn't understand before they gave the Kindle to their cousin (and they think that's "not piracy," it's just "replacing what they already bought") (because the anti-piracy rants don't describe piracy because they don't want to tell people how to do it)...

The Big 6 publishers are doing a cracking job of building the foundations of both the underground and the independent markets that will soon be their solid competition. And when those are well-established, mainstream prices will drop, amidst much yelling about how "piracy" is destroying the future of publishing. (There will be no mention of how having access to 10,000 books published over the last 50 years means you might not be interested in the two dozen that publisher released *this* year.)

[Andrew H.]

Originally Posted by Elfwreck

Much as I'd like to believe that, I think we've got another year or two before mainstream buyers really notice the problems with DRM and agency pricing. Last year saw a serge in e-readers; this year, they were a common gift item--but most of the people who got them don't even know that they can get ebooks in places other than the store attached to their devices.

It'll take a while for that information to spread out to people who haven't been avidly following ebook news for much of the last decade.

And most people still won't care. Most people with e-books want the same books they want in paper.

I think that it *will* get out, and torrents and fileswap methods for ebooks will quietly grow, because publishers will rant about Those Evil Pirates but try hard not to mention any details (because any details they mention can be googled & lead to more Evil Piracy). And of course, they won't mention the indie ebook stores, because those don't have DRM and the big publishers refuse to be carried in them--which means that, as people discover indie stores and legit free ebook sites, they'll feel the publishers have been trying to hide the competition from them.

They won't care, and most people won't torrent. A point that Amazon emphasizes with the Kindle is that you don't even need a computer. And one of the reasons that the Kindle, in particular, has been so successful is because it is so easy to buy a book - you click once and it's either sent to your device from your computer or downloaded to your device. No connecting to your computer, no sideloading - you just click and buy.

And, no, people won't feel that publishers are trying to "hide" indie stores because they aren't mentioned on Amazon's website.

And then there's the hassle of tracking down a torrent for a free PDF of an ebook they bought on Amazon but won't work on their new Nook, which they didn't understand before they gave the Kindle to their cousin (and they think that's "not piracy," it's just "replacing what they already bought") (because the anti-piracy rants don't describe piracy because they don't want to tell people how to do it)...

No one who doesn't understand that his kindle-format books are not compatible with a nook is going to know how to track down a torrent.

The Big 6 publishers are doing a cracking job of building the foundations of both the underground and the independent markets that will soon be their solid competition. And when those are well-established, mainstream prices will drop, amidst much yelling about how "piracy" is destroying the future of publishing. (There will be no mention of how having access to 10,000 books published over the last 50 years means you might not be interested in the two dozen that publisher released *this* year.)

I see no evidence that independent markets are going to provide any serious competition to big publisher. It didn't happen in music; I don't see why it would happen with books. Look at the music market - where are the vibrant digital indie markets providing serious competition to iTunes and Amazon? They don't exist. Where are all the indie music groups that were supposed to flourish, driving music publishers out of business? That prediction didn't happen, either. The music most people want comes from the traditional music publishers; the same will be true with books.

And big publishers print tens of thousands of books *per year* in the US alone. HarperCollins published 80,000 books in 2009 (of the 270,000 published in the US in that year). Thinking that they only bring out two dozen per year is just crazy - even tiny Baen brings out 70 or so new titles a year.

[GA Russell]

Let me first admit that I don't have proof for what I am about to say. These are all hunches.

I think that we can look to the music experience with piracy, but I believe that we are talking about different markets. The music people were kids who were computer savvy. The eBook people are adults, many less computer savvy.

I don't think that new eBook reader owners think about pirating their books. As sales of eBook readers continue to climb exponentially, I expect sales of DRM eBooks to climb exponentially as well.

In time, more and more new eBook consumers will notice that an eBook they want is not available for sale. One day, they might mention it at the summer family reunion or at Thanksgiving dinner, and a younger generation family member familiar with music downloading is going to mention that since music is pirated, books probably are too. He will then give the eBook consumer some tips about how one might try to find pirated eBooks if they are similar to pirated music.

So the eBook consumer goes home and tries it, and maybe he finds the book he was looking for. Perry Mason, here we come! Then maybe he will notice that the books he has been paying for are also available for free at the same pirate site.

I don't think that this scenario will unfold promptly upon one's getting an eBook reader for Christmas. But maybe by the second Thanksgiving after that.

As long as new consumers are added to the eBook fold, the publishers will sell plenty of James Patterson eBooks. But eventually the peak of the curve will be reached, and by that time the word about the piracy of eBooks will be out.

At that point, the publishers will be depending upon the goodwill of the consumers. The record companies do not enjoy the goodwill of their consumers. The RIAA are seen as bad guys.

I think that the publishers are now at a fork in the road, and that it is imperative that they maintain the goodwill of the reading public rather than maximize short term profits. If they don't, I see them losing a ton of sales a few years down the road.

[Andrew H.]

Originally Posted by GA Russell

I think that the publishers are now at a fork in the road, and that it is imperative that they maintain the goodwill of the reading public rather than maximize short term profits. If they don't, I see them losing a ton of sales a few years down the road.

I don't think that most book readers will ever care much more about the publishers than they do now. Nor do I think that publishers are too dependent on the goodwill of the reading public - even if they sell their new HC books at $8, you still can't compete with free. And you will always find people who will justify their thefts of e-books on the theory that the publishers are "evil." With "evil" being variously defined, of course, but they will probably glom on to the fact that not all of the money paid for a book goes directly to the author.

I think that's one of the "reasons" that music publishers are "evil."

But mostly it's just people wanting an excuse to steal. As we saw in the other thread about why people buy e-book readers, people may also trot out the "fact" that authors are wealthy, too.

However, I think that the demographics of heavy readers are going to make them less likely overall to torrent, etc.

And I think that people take a lot of wrong lessons from what they believe happened with the music business and mp3s. When mp3s came out, there was no legal way to download music, and the music business at first didn't permit it, and then sort of permitted it, but it was cumbersome. ITunes was so successful because: (1) it gave you a really easy, idiot-proof way of integrating your mp3 player with the music you downloaded; and (2) it gave you a really easy way to buy music online.

People didn't buy from iTunes because they had goodwill toward the publisher; they bought from iTunes because it was more convenient than other methods.

E-books didn't make the mistakes music publishers made. The kindle, in particular, made it extremely easy to buy book - you could do it without a computer, it would automatically download to your e-reader; if the book was still in the store, you could redownload it, etc. You didn't need a computer; you didn't need wifi - even iTunes still requires you to hook your player to the computer.

So I think that the greatest protection that book publishers have against piracy, etc., is to make it as easy as possible to buy books legally.

[Highroller]

Andrew I get the distinct feeling that if you have lived 100 years ago you would have been shilling for the horse and buggy people saying those new-fangled automobiles would NEVER catch on. That people would ALWAYS stick with their tried and true horse and buggy.

Now I am not rash enough to say what WILL happen but it doesn't take overwhelming computer savvy to type "Book Name epub torrent" in google. But the main point of this thread best I could tell was about e-book profits not future predictions. And I don't CARE what the bulk of people think or don't think the price of e-books. As long as the e-books are at what I feel to be too high a price I won't be buying many if any of them. I really don't think I am the only person that feels this way. So I think publishers are gaining short term profits but losing long term repeat business.

If people ARE too lazy to do a simple Google search then publishers certainly don't need to cripple their e-book releases with drm. But virtually all of them ARE using drm so I suspect they do think people know how to do a search...So if they can do a search then the question is what drives them to do a search. The answer I think goes back to my concerns of e-books being overpriced, not even getting into the books people in other countries can't buy solely because they are in another country.

Sorry, I just don't see sticking their heads in the sand and pretending nothing has changed or is going to change as being a viable position for publishers.

Only time will tell. But when technology changes things tend to change. It doesn't happen overnight but it does usually happen.

[tompe]

Originally Posted by Highroller

Andrew I get the distinct feeling that if you have lived 100 years ago you would have been shilling for the horse and buggy people saying those new-fangled automobiles would NEVER catch on. That people would ALWAYS stick with their tried and true horse and buggy.

Well, people are sticking with old fashioned cars and new things do not catch on.

If people ARE too lazy to do a simple Google search then publishers certainly don't need to cripple their e-book releases with drm. But virtually all of them ARE using drm so I suspect they do think people know how to do a search...

The publishers seem not to be rational in this question. Or it is self interest. An individual person does not dare to release books without DRM since he risk being criticized for it.

I also believe DRM is targeted against ordinary people that borrow books from each other.

[Andrew H.]

Originally Posted by Highroller

Andrew I get the distinct feeling that if you have lived 100 years ago you would have been shilling for the horse and buggy people saying those new-fangled automobiles would NEVER catch on. That people would ALWAYS stick with their tried and true horse and buggy.

I was promised a flying car in the 60's, I don't have it, so, yeah, I'm bitter!

I know that technology changes, which is why I have an e-reader, computer, smartphone, XBox, Apple TV, digital camera, etc.

But far from every prediction about technology comes true (see my flying car), and so I think you have to look carefully at the evidence to see what will actually occur. And I don't see a lot of evidence that anything will favor indie publishers over large publishers. Even though it's DRM'd and $13, vastly more people want to read Diane Setterfield and other authors like her than whatever is popular on a random indie site. And the vast majority are going to make their decision based on what they want to read, not on political issues, such as the size of the publisher or the use of DRM.


And with respect to torrents, it's more complicated for non-techie people than you you describe. It's not just "google epub torrent;" it's knowing that there is such a thing as a torrent and having some idea how it works; it's downloading and installing a client; and it's feeling comfortable downloading a torrent despite your techie friends' advice not to download something from an unfamiliar site.

This is easy enough for me, but I think that convenience always wins out in the end, and most people will be content to just use their reader's built in store, maybe with the occasional venture to another DRM-free store.