Bill Gates says "Reading is going to go completely online."

Bob Russell · 05-11-2007, 07:44 PM

Just because Bill Gates says something is so, doesn't mean it is. But like him or not, when Bill Gates makes a prediction, people listen. This time we get to hear some of his thoughts about e-books. Quillblog refers to a collection of quotes on the topic from a speech, and I think it's quite fair to say he's bullish on e-books.

Here is one example... "Reading is going to go completely online. We believe that as we get the smaller form factor, the screen has gotten good enough. Why is reading online better? It's up to date, you can navigate, you can follow links. The ads in the online reading are completely targeted as opposed to just being run-of-print, where many of the readers will find them completely irrelevant. The ads can be in new and richer formats. In fact the only drawbacks of the digital form are the things associated with the device: how big is it, heavy is it, how many hours of power does it have, how much do I have to spend to buy it? But those are things that once you achieve that threshold, in terms of the convenience and the cost, then you see a dramatic change in behavior. Today, for people who read newspapers and magazines, even the most avid PC user probably still does quite a bit of reading on print. As the device moves down in size and simplicity, that will change, and so somewhere in the next five-year period we'll hit that transition point, and things will be even more dramatic than they are today."

In many ways, the hardware is getting very close to being reasonably priced, easy to use and sufficient quality to be wondering how close the tipping point is. But DRM and format wars still continue to drain the life out of the industry. Five years? Maybe. I hope so!

From QuillBlog.

nekokami · 05-12-2007, 06:52 AM

Obviously, the ads are the most important part of reading....

branko · 05-12-2007, 07:46 AM

Is that guy in the photo Bill Gates or Napoleon Bonaparte?

Bob Russell · 05-12-2007, 08:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nekokami

Obviously, the ads are the most important part of reading....

I've noticed over the years that whenever Bill Gates discusses the future, he always seems to be shaping the discussion in terms that favor the Microsoft market and business and technology positions that he is aiming for. Even more so with regard to various types of content, including e-books. And, of course, his focus is on generating revenue streams. So I guess that it makes sense he cares about the ads.

My problem with that only comes in when the technology players are so focused on maximizing revenue, that they distort and de-humanize the whole space and leave the consumer with a second rate experience. There needs to be a balance, as well as some choice for the consumer between commercial and aesthetic approaches. Unfortunately, DRM, strict copyright law, strict copyright law interpretations, and format wars all contribute to reducing the opportunities for aestheticly pleasing solutions by putting unprecidented control of content in the hands of the content owner. I see it as a battle between content owners who want revenue only, and content consumers who want a pleasing and reasonably priced consumption experience.

Neither side can have all the power or we all lose. But the goal of balance is important - one side wants us to "respect the full control of the content owner". The other side says that copyright only exists in the first place to ensure content can exists, and that the whole point is to maximize the welfare for the general population. Helping to support revenues for content owners was only a secondary concern to allow for the community's benefit, not the primary concern as it seems to have become in today's politics.

Okay... I'm off my soapbox now for another 6 mos or so on this topic!

nekokami · 05-12-2007, 09:01 AM

I don't even really have a problem with ads in reading, and I note that he concludes this bit with a discussion of magazines and newspapers, which usually do have ads. I just thought it was kind of a bizarre combination -- he starts out by talking about advantages to the (human) reader, and then throws the stuff about ads in there, as if that's to the reader's advantage. If you're going to have to put up with ads anyway, then I suppose having them be more targeted does make them somewhat less annoying (and, I admit, possibly more useful). But the idea of ads in "new and richer formats" intruding into my enjoyment of, say, Stephen Hawking's A Brief History of Time doesn't sound like and advantage to me.

yvanleterrible · 05-12-2007, 11:03 AM

What he says has technical implications. I can just envision a wifi reader with html recognition. Hmmm! I'm into that one.

Everytime one of these big guys stuffs a foot in his mouth you can always get a peek at something they try to hide. Or is it purposeful!

Reading online is a possibility. They also, years ago, said that software would be a pay per use thing through a server... Still waiting...

There's a big hurdle that awaits them when they try this 'reading online'. Since no one likes reading on a computer, logically it will be on portable device. That automatically means wifi or bluetooth equipped devices. How many people benefit of such a cover at this point? Sure planet Gates is covered, but how many real readers?

orcinus · 05-13-2007, 04:56 PM

"Reading is going to go completely online."

Yes, yes, and "internet is a fad, dial-up services like MSN will prevail", "SPOT watches are the next big thing", "640K should be enough for anyone"... I don't particularly care if that last one is his or not. The former two, along with dozens of other idiotic predictions he makes each year are enough.

Hypertext and other "live" text technologies are simply of no use at all in the world of e-books unless we're talking reference. And reference makes for a particularly smallish portion of the market.

Oh, and i absolutely DO NOT want to have all my data on-line. Nor being able to read exclusively while on-line. I thought we've already gone past that...

Snappy! · 05-15-2007, 04:58 AM

It's sad when a company like MS grows to such a size, the overhead to upkeep itself is too high that it churns out rubbish like this.

If they had manage to release a real origami device, with 10hour batt @$499, users would have gulped it down. That would give access to any number of web browsers and ereaders that support hyperlinking.

It's wierd how we go back a few generation with hyperlinking tech whenever there is a new device/platform. So much for portability of code or interoperability.

Robert Marquard · 05-15-2007, 05:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by orcinus

Oh, and i absolutely DO NOT want to have all my data on-line. Nor being able to read exclusively while on-line. I thought we've already gone past that...

Understandable. That is where Microsoft wants to install the toll booth for pay-per-view.

RWood · 05-15-2007, 11:32 AM

I can just see it now ...

I'm sitting in a little coffee shop reading The Odyssey when up pops an ad for a cruse line.

orcinus · 05-15-2007, 01:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RWood

I can just see it now ...

I'm sitting in a little coffee shop reading The Odyssey when up pops an ad for a cruse line.

Stop that! I'm getting all sorts of nasty ideas now, containing e-books, on-line reading and ad-sense...

NatCh · 05-15-2007, 01:48 PM

Oooo. That's not nice, orcinus!

nekokami · 05-15-2007, 09:48 PM

Google text ads I could live with, but the idea of popups, blinking flashing animations and video, etc. are pretty intolerable.

Kinda makes the low refresh rate of e ink look like a feature.

orcinus · 05-19-2007, 07:12 AM

Ah! Contextual text ads the way they are now you COULD live with, but just imagine the possibilities ebooks as a new marketing medium will open...

For example, you're reading Odyssey when - all of a sudden - you discover that Telemachus' ship is provided by Sunseeker and is, actually, a motoryacht.

Steven Lyle Jordan · 05-19-2007, 09:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nekokami

Google text ads I could live with, but the idea of popups, blinking flashing animations and video, etc. are pretty intolerable.

Don't fret... there's always the opportunity for third-party programs like AdSubtract to step in and save us from pervasive ads, unwanted animations, cookies, etc.

If it weren't for third-party programs, computers (and especially MS products) wouldn't even be useable today...

05-11-2007, 07:44 PM	#1
Bob Russell Recovering Gadget Addict Posts: 5,381 Karma: 676161 Join Date: May 2004 Location: Pittsburgh, PA Device: iPad	Bill Gates says "Reading is going to go completely online." Just because Bill Gates says something is so, doesn't mean it is. But like him or not, when Bill Gates makes a prediction, people listen. This time we get to hear some of his thoughts about e-books. Quillblog refers to a collection of quotes on the topic from a speech, and I think it's quite fair to say he's bullish on e-books. Here is one example... "Reading is going to go completely online. We believe that as we get the smaller form factor, the screen has gotten good enough. Why is reading online better? It's up to date, you can navigate, you can follow links. The ads in the online reading are completely targeted as opposed to just being run-of-print, where many of the readers will find them completely irrelevant. The ads can be in new and richer formats. In fact the only drawbacks of the digital form are the things associated with the device: how big is it, heavy is it, how many hours of power does it have, how much do I have to spend to buy it? But those are things that once you achieve that threshold, in terms of the convenience and the cost, then you see a dramatic change in behavior. Today, for people who read newspapers and magazines, even the most avid PC user probably still does quite a bit of reading on print. As the device moves down in size and simplicity, that will change, and so somewhere in the next five-year period we'll hit that transition point, and things will be even more dramatic than they are today." In many ways, the hardware is getting very close to being reasonably priced, easy to use and sufficient quality to be wondering how close the tipping point is. But DRM and format wars still continue to drain the life out of the industry. Five years? Maybe. I hope so! From QuillBlog.

05-13-2007, 04:56 PM	#7
orcinus Gadgeteer Posts: 222 Karma: 540 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Croatia Device: iRex iLiad, Sony PRS-500, Nokia 770, BB 7200, Samsung i600, iPhone	"Reading is going to go completely online." Yes, yes, and "internet is a fad, dial-up services like MSN will prevail", "SPOT watches are the next big thing", "640K should be enough for anyone"... I don't particularly care if that last one is his or not. The former two, along with dozens of other idiotic predictions he makes each year are enough. Hypertext and other "live" text technologies are simply of no use at all in the world of e-books unless we're talking reference. And reference makes for a particularly smallish portion of the market. Oh, and i absolutely DO NOT want to have all my data on-line. Nor being able to read exclusively while on-line. I thought we've already gone past that... Last edited by orcinus; 05-13-2007 at 04:58 PM.

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05-12-2007, 06:52 AM	#2
nekokami fruminous edugeek Posts: 6,745 Karma: 551260 Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Northeast US Device: iPad, eBw 1150	Obviously, the ads are the most important part of reading....

05-12-2007, 07:46 AM	#3
branko Connoisseur Posts: 93 Karma: 549 Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Amsterdam Device: Palm Zire	Is that guy in the photo Bill Gates or Napoleon Bonaparte?

05-12-2007, 09:01 AM	#5
nekokami fruminous edugeek Posts: 6,745 Karma: 551260 Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Northeast US Device: iPad, eBw 1150	I don't even really have a problem with ads in reading, and I note that he concludes this bit with a discussion of magazines and newspapers, which usually do have ads. I just thought it was kind of a bizarre combination -- he starts out by talking about advantages to the (human) reader, and then throws the stuff about ads in there, as if that's to the reader's advantage. If you're going to have to put up with ads anyway, then I suppose having them be more targeted does make them somewhat less annoying (and, I admit, possibly more useful). But the idea of ads in "new and richer formats" intruding into my enjoyment of, say, Stephen Hawking's A Brief History of Time doesn't sound like and advantage to me.

05-12-2007, 11:03 AM	#6
yvanleterrible Reborn Paper User Posts: 8,616 Karma: 15446734 Join Date: May 2006 Location: Que Nada Device: iPhone8, iPad Air	What he says has technical implications. I can just envision a wifi reader with html recognition. Hmmm! I'm into that one. Everytime one of these big guys stuffs a foot in his mouth you can always get a peek at something they try to hide. Or is it purposeful! Reading online is a possibility. They also, years ago, said that software would be a pay per use thing through a server... Still waiting... There's a big hurdle that awaits them when they try this 'reading online'. Since no one likes reading on a computer, logically it will be on portable device. That automatically means wifi or bluetooth equipped devices. How many people benefit of such a cover at this point? Sure planet Gates is covered, but how many real readers?

05-15-2007, 04:58 AM	#8
Snappy! Addict Posts: 260 Karma: 4256 Join Date: Feb 2006 Device: SHARP Zaurus C1000	It's sad when a company like MS grows to such a size, the overhead to upkeep itself is too high that it churns out rubbish like this. If they had manage to release a real origami device, with 10hour batt @$499, users would have gulped it down. That would give access to any number of web browsers and ereaders that support hyperlinking. It's wierd how we go back a few generation with hyperlinking tech whenever there is a new device/platform. So much for portability of code or interoperability.

05-15-2007, 11:32 AM	#10
RWood Technogeezer Posts: 7,233 Karma: 1601464 Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Virginia, USA Device: Sony PRS-500	I can just see it now ... I'm sitting in a little coffee shop reading The Odyssey when up pops an ad for a cruse line.

05-15-2007, 01:48 PM	#12
NatCh Gizmologist Posts: 11,615 Karma: 929550 Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Republic of Texas Embassy at Jackson, TN Device: Pocketbook Touch HD3	Oooo. That's not nice, orcinus!

05-15-2007, 09:48 PM	#13
nekokami fruminous edugeek Posts: 6,745 Karma: 551260 Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Northeast US Device: iPad, eBw 1150	Google text ads I could live with, but the idea of popups, blinking flashing animations and video, etc. are pretty intolerable. Kinda makes the low refresh rate of e ink look like a feature.

05-19-2007, 07:12 AM	#14
orcinus Gadgeteer Posts: 222 Karma: 540 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Croatia Device: iRex iLiad, Sony PRS-500, Nokia 770, BB 7200, Samsung i600, iPhone	Ah! Contextual text ads the way they are now you COULD live with, but just imagine the possibilities ebooks as a new marketing medium will open... For example, you're reading Odyssey when - all of a sudden - you discover that Telemachus' ship is provided by Sunseeker and is, actually, a motoryacht.

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