Why Ereader Companies Shouldn't be Worried

[Crowl]

Originally Posted by kjk

Tim Cook said in the last earnings call that the iPhone was HUGE in Japan now-400% growth?

If you look at their actual sales the numbers still aren't that great, the growth is so huge because so few had them before.

[guyanonymous]

Good point! Stats, absent context, are often meaningless.

The most common prob. I see is demographic stats presented to compare areas, but usually as raw numbers rather than % of population etc....or even just to /1000 people sorta thing.

[Harmon]

Originally Posted by Pardoz

Also form factor, for me at least. 10" (for my taste) is 'portable', in the sense that a laptop is portable - it's something I carry around and hold in both hands. 6" is right at the large end of 'mobile' - something I can stick in a pocket or bag and use one-handed. I routinely read my on my Kindle on the bus to work, I can't really imagine doing the same thing with a 10" tablet.

In a reading analogy, one's a paperback, one's a hardcover. I can read both, but one's much more likely to travel with me anywhere I go and be read when I have a moment to spare.

Yep, in terms of portability, there's a gap in the Apple Universe, between the Pad & the Touch (or iPhone.) And the 6 inch dedicated ereaders fill that gap. So those of us who already have ereaders that size might continue to use them - especially the Kindle, which syncs to the Kindle app. I think that the Pad is going to damage KDX sales unless the price is substantially reduced, but at the same time, if the price of the 6 inch Kindle were to go down to $200, the Pad might lead to increased sales because of the sync factor.

OTOH, anyone who does not already have a dedicated ereader might decide that the portable version of the Pad, i.e., the Touch, is the way to go. (As it happens, my current read* is one I got from Amazon, & I'm reading it on my iPhone. My guess is that it would sync with the Pad version, if I had it now.) An 8 gig Touch is $200. I wonder if we might see a 50 buck price reduction on that sometime soon.

So I'd offer a friendly amendment to your analogy: the Pad is a hardback, the Kindle is a trade paperback, and the Touch is a pocketbook paperback.

* The Cello Suites: J.S. Bach, Pablo Casals and the Search for a Baroque Masterpiece, by Eric Siblin

[HansTWN]

Perhaps it is time for Amazon to announce its new color reader 6 months in advance, like everybody else? That might cause iPad sales to take a giant hit among readers. Or they are waiting to do that about a week before the iPad hits the streets?

Another good idea would be to drop the DXi to $350.- and upgrade its PDF functionality.

[dragonbone]

Originally Posted by HansTWN

Another good idea would be to drop the DXi to $350.- and upgrade its PDF functionality.

If the DXi drops to $200 (including international S&H AND import tax) I will definitely get it. That won't stop me from getting my iPad too though...

[Canuck_in_Japan]

Originally Posted by HansTWN

Perhaps it is time for Amazon to announce its new color reader 6 months in advance, like everybody else? That might cause iPad sales to take a giant hit among readers. Or they are waiting to do that about a week before the iPad hits the streets?

Another good idea would be to drop the DXi to $350.- and upgrade its PDF functionality.

I assume those "others" are all entering the reader race-they have nothing to lose by announcing far in advance. But why would Amazon who already have current gen hardware make it obsolete 6 months in advance? Everybody would suddenly stop buying the DX and just wait for the next version to come out.

[HansTWN]

Originally Posted by Canuck_in_Japan

I assume those "others" are all entering the reader race-they have nothing to lose by announcing far in advance. But why would Amazon who already have current gen hardware make it obsolete 6 months in advance? Everybody would suddenly stop buying the DX and just wait for the next version to come out.

Assuming that a new color reader is considerably more expensive than the current hardware not everyone will stop buying the old versions. And seriously, I think we can definitely expect further price reductions in the DXi. A lot of people will be in a holding pattern right now, anyway.

The only reason Amazon might not drop the price is if they are convinced that a vast majority of people will find the iPad very uncomfortable to read on for extended periods. That might very well happen, we will find out in a few months.

[Canuck_in_Japan]

Originally Posted by dragonbone

I don't believe that the iPad will be more expensive here? Why should it?

This is a little bit naive. How long have you been living in Japan? I assume quite a while. If so then you will already know that Japanese customers get completely ripped off compared to our American friends. Ever compare the price of a Sony TV in Japan and the US? The US TV is so much cheaper that it's ridiculous!! And the bloody things are made in Japan!! Also US apps are 99 cents compared to Japan's 115 yen even though the yen is stronger than the dollar. When I got my iTouch I got my parents to bring it over with them from Canada. It was about $230 plus tax so maybe $270 for the 8GB. The same 8GB from Bic Camera was going for 28,700 yen and the dollar was probably only worth about 80 yen at the time! Anyways I just think that you may be in for a rude shock if you think you're going to get the iPad for the same price as what the US has it for.

Originally Posted by kjk

Tim Cook said in the last earnings call that the iPhone was HUGE in Japan now-400% growth?

As someone else said, this is relative. The iPhone has experienced strong growth here. There was a time when I declared the iPhone to be a failure in Japan using the anectdotal evidence that I had never actually seen one out in the wild in the hands of anybody other than a foreigner. I can't say that anymore. They're still not common but there's a good chance that I'll see someone using one while I'm on the train-maybe even two people. But this is in a country where 3/4 of the people on the train have their cellphones out and are doing some thing on the train. So 2 out of 200 people isn't really that much. Still 400% is 400%. If they keep it up then they will definitely end up with a stronger market share (but no where even close to the sheer domination that you see in the US-we're talking about a market with 3 main carriers who each sell about 20 different varieties of cell phones).

[dragonbone]

Originally Posted by HansTWN

And seriously, I think we can definitely expect further price reductions in the DXi. A lot of people will be in a holding pattern right now, anyway.

What do you mean by further price reductions? AFAIK only the DX was reduced in price.
Just checked Amazon.com...
Wow, that's strange! A day or two ago, I could have sworn that I saw the DX for $359 and the DXi $ 489... but now I see the DX is $449.
Am I going crazy? Has anyone else noticed this?

[HansTWN]

Originally Posted by dragonbone

What do you mean by further price reductions? AFAIK only the DX was reduced in price.
Just checked Amazon.com...
Wow, that's strange! A day or two ago, I could have sworn that I saw the DX for $359 and the DXi $ 489... but now I see the DX is $449.
Am I going crazy? Has anyone else noticed this?

I have seen a post here, a week or two ago. And I am sure the DXi will be reduced even more in the next few months. $399 seems like a likely price. Amazon is not one to just sit around and take it on the chin.

[dragonbone]

Originally Posted by Canuck_in_Japan

This is a little bit naive. How long have you been living in Japan? .

Going on 12 years now.... you?

[dragonbone]

Originally Posted by Canuck_in_Japan

Ever compare the price of a Sony TV in Japan and the US? The US TV is so much cheaper that it's ridiculous!! And the bloody things are made in Japan!!

Hmmm... that is extremely unlikely. I pretty sure that they are made in Taiwan or China under license for the USA market.

[HansTWN]

Originally Posted by Canuck_in_Japan

This is a little bit naive. How long have you been living in Japan? I assume quite a while. If so then you will already know that Japanese customers get completely ripped off compared to our American friends. Ever compare the price of a Sony TV in Japan and the US? The US TV is so much cheaper that it's ridiculous!! And the bloody things are made in Japan!! Also US apps are 99 cents compared to Japan's 115 yen even though the yen is stronger than the dollar. When I got my iTouch I got my parents to bring it over with them from Canada. It was about $230 plus tax so maybe $270 for the 8GB. The same 8GB from Bic Camera was going for 28,700 yen and the dollar was probably only worth about 80 yen at the time! Anyways I just think that you may be in for a rude shock if you think you're going to get the iPad for the same price as what the US has it for.

Exactly, Japanese consumers are not bargain seekers. On the contrary, a low price can backfire, since people presume the item to be of low quality. So one can expect to pay dearly for that iPad if one buys locally in Japan. And the Kindle is being shipped from the US, not even aimed at Japanese consumers but rather at expats, so Amazon is playing by different rules.

[HansTWN]

Originally Posted by dragonbone

Hmmm... that is extremely unlikely. I pretty sure that they are made in Taiwan or China under license for the USA market.

Probably made in China (Taiwan is too expensive), but so are the ones sold in Japan, nowadays.

[dragonbone]

Originally Posted by HansTWN

Probably made in China (Taiwan is too expensive), but so are the ones sold in Japan, nowadays.

Yes, true on both points .