Amazon Prime Air

[fjtorres]

Zdnet' s take:

http://www.zdnet.com/amazons-drone-d...e539&ttag=e539

Here's a look at the flavors of drone speak today following Amazon's 60 Minutes profile:

Cynic: Bezos knows damn well that a five year time line is way aggressive and the FAA is going to look long and hard at the concept. Bezos' 60 Minutes spiel is nothing more than a PR stunt.
Techno-optimist: Amazon is reinventing shopping and will close the gap between instant gratification and e-commerce. Amazon is innovative beyond belief.
Realist: Amazon concept could work, but will likely take more than five years to pull off, but sounds neat. Who am I to doubt Bezos?
So what's this drone idea really about? Messaging. Amazon is increasingly being known for its innovation---whether it's Amazon Web Services, supply chain or its Kindle business model. This innovation culture keeps people interested and away from annoying questions about profit margins.

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster noted:

While it's highly unlikely we have flying Amazon delivery drones in four to five years, the recently announced initiative illustrates the culture of innovation at Amazon and the depth of its goal to re-engineer the fabric of retail for the next 100 years.

I'm thinking it is all of the above.
A little multivariate thinking goes a long way.

[HarryT]

What is it that was actually said? The OP claimed "by 2015"; the editorial above is saying "within 5 years". Is it 5 years or 2015?

[kennyc]

According to: http://techland.time.com/2013/12/01/...#ixzz2mL7NUpRR

Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos revealed an experimental drone-based delivery service on Sunday, in an ambitious move by the online retailer to capitalize on a technology still being used sparsely by American businesses. Bezos said the service, dubbed Amazon Prime Air, could be ready for customer use in “four or five years.”

[HarryT]

Thank you; that's a lot more realistic than "by 2015".

[pl001]

Originally Posted by sirmaru

'
Flying cars are already available in the US. One needs a pilot's license and a parking spot at an airfield. The wings fold into the car when driving on a highway. One must drive to an airfield to take off and then land at an airfield.

Here is a link to the tests 18 months ago:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/american...n-test-flight/

I believe US auto dealers are selling them NOW.

Only a few US states allow them. They run for $ 300,000 and self driving cars run for $ 150,000. The car I own runs on VOICE COMMANDS and it took me 3 weeks to learn how to work it. Passengers are not allowed to talk or the car could become confused.

Sorry, I shouldn't have used the term "flying car". What I meant were small Vertical Takoff/Landing aircraft that would largely replace cars. Flying from driveway directly to destination. A rather terrifying prospect, considering the poor skills of the average driver.

That said, the true flying cars you listed are not all that affordable or practical.

[Yolina]

Originally Posted by AnemicOak

Before pursuing the drone route Amazon tried a few other methods for Prime Air, but the results weren't too good.

I need to get one of those to position on my terrace and shoot at any drone that might come within range

Wondering if the seagulls and crows around here might take exception to drones invading their airspace and attack, now that could be entertaining (but messy when said drones comes crashing down... expensive public liability insurance?!)

[Greg Anos]

Originally Posted by tubemonkey

The US has been delivering overseas packages by drone for some time now

I believe they are limited to one per customer...

[kennyc]

Originally Posted by pl001

Sorry, I shouldn't have used the term "flying car". What I meant were small Vertical Takoff/Landing aircraft that would largely replace cars. Flying from driveway directly to destination. A rather terrifying prospect, considering the poor skills of the average driver.

That said, the true flying cars you listed are not all that affordable or practical.

We're waiting on the autonomous vehicle to avoid just that.

[OtterBooks]

I imagine Amazon having large, small aircraft-sized drones delivering multiple packages long distance to outpost/hubs where small drones await to deliver locally. or even just have drone stations placed at various FedEx/USPS hubs.

[pidgeon92]

Originally Posted by HarryT

What is it that was actually said? The OP claimed "by 2015"; the editorial above is saying "within 5 years". Is it 5 years or 2015?

From the Amazon page:

Q: When will I be able to choose Prime Air as a delivery option?

A: We hope the FAA's rules will be in place as early as sometime in 2015. We will be ready at that time.

[ApK]

Originally Posted by kennyc

We're waiting on the autonomous vehicle to avoid just that.

Remarkably challenging in 2 dimensions, let alone 3. Still, I bet we'll get there eventually.

[Barbara1955]

OMG the JETSONS! [Cartoon for those who dont know LOL] 1st packages then people!

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by pl001

Sorry, I shouldn't have used the term "flying car". What I meant were small Vertical Takoff/Landing aircraft that would largely replace cars. Flying from driveway directly to destination. A rather terrifying prospect, considering the poor skills of the average driver.

That is a solved problem.
NASA took care of it over a decade ago.

http://www.aeronautics.nasa.gov/events/chicago/hits.htm

Main problem is the General Aviation aircraft companies are only slightly less conservative, technology-wise, than corporate publishing. The biggest hardware advance they were willing to adopt from NASA' s '90's GENERAL AVIATION INITIATIVE was to move GA planes from '50's propulsion technology to '60's technology.
Which is why it is falling to outsiders to develop even flying taxis, to say nothing of the "flying car".

[kennyc]

From Forbes WRT the roadblocks:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelw...-never-happen/

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by kennyc

From Forbes WRT the roadblocks:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelw...-never-happen/

1- Yes, the regulatory environment is *the* big hurdle.

2- No, you will not see 50,000 drones. First, because a lot of what Amazon sells isn't small enough or urgent enough for drone delivery. Second, because a lot of Amazon business comes from outside the giant metro areas, where near term drone tech isn't a fit. 50,000 daily flights over NYC? No. More like 500-1000, which can be served by 50 drones or less. Bezos said Amazon is looking to do drone deliveries: he didn't say Amazon was going to *only* do drone deliveries. Even in 2030 you're not going to see many drone deliveries of diapers.

3- For non-metro areas, a more practical near term (but less buzzworthy) solution would be autonomous ground vehicles.