Will the Amazon Kindle cost US$50?

[hello]

would be great to slash prices of the other brands. they'll die pretty soon if they don't and the whole world gets kindelized.

[HarryT]

Why should anyone "slash prices"? All these 6" screen bookreaders seem to be coming in at around the same price, $300-400 depending on specific features. That price reflects the manufacturing costs and seems perfectly reasonable to me.

If I recall correctly, the Kindle is rumoured to be sold at around $400-ish.

[HarryT]

Originally Posted by bowerbird

of course i was. but some people see a criminal behind every corner.
it's an interesting rorschach-blot that tells you a lot about those people.

Perhaps, bowerbird, you have not shared my experience of seeing something which you've spent 20 years of your life creating, and are trying your damndest to make an honest living from selling, casually being posted to internet news groups, duplicated and sold on eBay, etc. I'm afraid that the experience does rather tend to make one cynical when it comes to the "morals" of many people out there. If I see criminal intent lurking behind every post, it's because my own experience has shown me that there are many such people out there.

Luckily, one has the occasional triumph. I've recently successfully prosecuted a joker who was selling my software on eBay through the English civil courts, and last year got a kid expelled from university in Thailand for attempting (ineptly) to do the same thing. Sadly, these minor "triumphs" are eclipsed by those who succeed in profiting from other peoples' hard work unpunished.

Perhaps you understand now why I am loath piracy so very much. One's attitudes are inevitably coloured by one's own experiences. If one has been personally hurt by piracy, as I have, the result is inevitably a rather extreme aversion to it in all its forms.

[delphidb96]

Originally Posted by HarryT

Perhaps, bowerbird, you have not shared my experience of seeing something which you've spent 20 years of your life creating, and are trying your damndest to make an honest living from selling, casually being posted to internet news groups, duplicated and sold on eBay, etc. I'm afraid that the experience does rather tend to make one cynical when it comes to the "morals" of many people out there. If I see criminal intent lurking behind every post, it's because my own experience has shown me that there are many such people out there.

Luckily, one has the occasional triumph. I've recently successfully prosecuted a joker who was selling my software on eBay through the English civil courts, and last year got a kid expelled from university in Thailand for attempting (ineptly) to do the same thing. Sadly, these minor "triumphs" are eclipsed by those who succeed in profiting from other peoples' hard work unpunished.

Perhaps you understand now why I am loath piracy so very much. One's attitudes are inevitably coloured by one's own experiences. If one has been personally hurt by piracy, as I have, the result is inevitably a rather extreme aversion to it in all its forms.

Harry, might I ask what is the software you've worked twenty years to create? I'd like to buy it if it's available.

Derek

[HarryT]

It's astronomy software. I'll send you a PM.

[MikeF74]

Originally Posted by HarryT

Why should anyone "slash prices"? All these 6" screen bookreaders seem to be coming in at around the same price, $300-400 depending on specific features. That price reflects the manufacturing costs and seems perfectly reasonable to me.

If I recall correctly, the Kindle is rumoured to be sold at around $400-ish.

I guess it all depends on what Amazon's business model is. Maybe they will sell it at cost to jumpstart the market and become the dominant player. If that's the case, they what could they sell it for? $199?

They could try being a loss leader and sell it for even less, though to do that I think they would have to lock the device down to their format and that wouldn't fly with many people.

Selling the device for profit, or at cost? They could really go either way.

[mogui]

I understand, Harry. I was bitten too. In my case it was long ago. The feeling I was left with was that the current laws just don't work well enough.

[RalphTrickey]

Originally Posted by MikeF74

I guess it all depends on what Amazon's business model is. Maybe they will sell it at cost to jumpstart the market and become the dominant player. If that's the case, they what could they sell it for? $199?

They could try being a loss leader and sell it for even less, though to do that I think they would have to lock the device down to their format and that wouldn't fly with many people.

Selling the device for profit, or at cost? They could really go either way.

I'd think that cost would be closer to $249, and that they'd be losing money at $199. Given the current state of the market and piracy, I'd be surprised if they would be that bold. I'm not sure what percent of people would actually buy Amazon DRM'd books and how many, that's the big question.

If it were 100% and 5/year, we'd probably see the Kindle at $99. Since I'm not that naive, I'm expecting it at $299-$399 depending on how agressive they want to be, and how many publishers have signed on.

[MikeF74]

One thing to remember though, Amazon doesn't have to deal with middlemen resellers out to make a buck. That can certainly help drive down the cost. What is the traditional reseller markup on electronics? Let's say for the sake of argument that its 20%. That means that resellers of the Sony PRS-505 make $60 on every one they sell at MSRP. Since Amazon doesn't need to go through the retail market, they could sell a self-manufactured device of the same manufacturing cost for $240 and still make a profit (because I haven't removed Sony's margin yet).

Who knows which direction Amazon will decide to take things. But one thing is for sure, they have the ability to undercut the competition due to both its dominance as an online bookseller and its significant ability to sell its own device exclusively.

[RalphTrickey]

I think that people also are understimating what EV-DO can do. They have the opportunity to provide internal memory that is only accessible by EV-DO, and absolutely (for a while) lock down the DRM, that may allow them to attract publishers that wouldn't look at it otherwise, while leaving the rest of the device 'open.' There are a lot of other potentials for EV-DO, it all depends on the software, and what philosophy they take. I could even see them setting up a 'second-hand' store that takes a 25% cut of every resale, or being able to 'loan' books to friends<g>.

I don't know why there aren't more publishers publishing electronically, if it's because of a lack of DRM or a lack of market, or both.

As well as the question about pricing, I'm also curious to see how 'open' the device is. They could even go both ways a 'Closed' kindle for $199, and an 'Open' kindle for $399 or something like that. The hardware could be identical, only the software is necessarily different.

Hopefully, we'll get an answer this week. I've got the money set aside, but I am waiting to see if they've shot themselves in the foot, or done something brilliant, or if it's in-between.

[yvanleterrible]

Originally Posted by RalphTrickey

I think that people also are understimating what EV-DO can do. They have the opportunity to provide internal memory that is only accessible by EV-DO, and absolutely (for a while) lock down the DRM, that may allow them to attract publishers that wouldn't look at it otherwise, while leaving the rest of the device 'open.' There are a lot of other potentials for EV-DO, it all depends on the software, and what philosophy they take. I could even see them setting up a 'second-hand' store that takes a 25% cut of every resale, or being able to 'loan' books to friends<g>.

I don't know why there aren't more publishers publishing electronically, if it's because of a lack of DRM or a lack of market, or both.

As well as the question about pricing, I'm also curious to see how 'open' the device is. They could even go both ways a 'Closed' kindle for $199, and an 'Open' kindle for $399 or something like that. The hardware could be identical, only the software is necessarily different.

Hopefully, we'll get an answer this week. I've got the money set aside, but I am waiting to see if they've shot themselves in the foot, or done something brilliant, or if it's in-between.

Hmm! Interesting, especially the part about jumping over DRM. But publishers they do business with won't like that, will it not be a drawback for them or will it only be used for non DRM'd material sales?

As I've said elsewhere, although we cringe at the price, I'm pretty sure this device will have a high one. Ebook readers are considered to be luxury items for now. That is final for the next two years! No matter how we rant about it.

[guguy]

It won't be EV-DO but Wifi.

[Nate the great]

Originally Posted by guguy

It won't be EV-DO but Wifi.

We all hope so, but "Auto-delivered wirelessly to Kindle via Amazon Whispernet" suggests otherwise. This would work much better over EVDO than Wifi.

Also, the FCC pictures show an EVDO/CDMA module, not Wifi. And the manual talks about EVDO, not Wifi.

Everyone needs to go read the Manual. It is beginning to make more sense now.


Here is a copy:

[NatCh]

True, but that manual's about a year old and we've heard barely a whisper since then (pun fully intended). Also, there was a recent French newspaper article that mentioned WiFi -- it could be an error, or it could be so.

[nekokami]

Originally Posted by RalphTrickey

I could even see them setting up a 'second-hand' store that takes a 25% cut of every resale, or being able to 'loan' books to friends<g>.

That's a very interesting idea. It would undercut one of the most common objections to DRM (at least in many people's minds). I'm not sure I like a solution that favors one vendor (Amazon) so heavily, but I could see something like this working for many people.

I'd want to see much better guarantees about long-term access to content before they'd get my money, though. Especially after hearing about the expiring access to PDF files.