Will the Amazon Kindle cost US$50?

[Alisa]

Originally Posted by brecklundin

EVDO is expensive. $60/mo for so-called unlimited plans. Of course those unlimited plans are quite limited. Data caps and use restrictions are pretty restrictive.

Actually my "unlimited" EVDO data from Sprint is $15. I would imagine that the amount of use they would be anticipating from Kindle would be fairly small and Amazon probably could get a special pricing deal possibly with a small per-download fee.

[HarryT]

Originally Posted by delphidb96

All I really want to know is this... Will I be able to buy a Kindle - this week - for a very low price as long as I sign up for a 2, 3 or 5 year ebook subscription program! By very low I mean less than $100!

I think the answer to that is "definitely not".

[Aprilbeginnings]

Just skimming but that thing looks too large IMO..... I guess I am just happy with the sony reader..........Doesn't take much LOL.

[nnpptt]

Originally Posted by Alexander Turcic

Rumors are that the Kindle, Amazon's leaked E Ink e-reader, may be heavily subsidized to push the online retailer's e-book sales. Quoting Nick Hampshire of Afaics:


Related: Amazon E Ink reader? (with specs), Remember Kindle? (with pics)

No... the Kindle won't cost a mere $50. The SONY READER costs $300, so it's no surprise that the Kindle costs $400.

The Sony Reader and Amazon Kindle are relatively comparable on most levels. The Reader is cheaper and it doesn't charge you for RSS feeds, but some people can just pay for stuff like that. The specs are laid out here:

http://comparati.com/1125-Amazon-Kindle-vs-Sony-Reader

But... The major differentiators are (and these are very big deals):

1) The Kindle has EV-DO internet.

2) The Kindle has 4x the titles to choose from.

You just can't argue with those two facts. That's why the Sony Reader was a dud and the Kindle will pave the way for success in this market.

[silvania]

Originally Posted by nnpptt

1) The Kindle has EV-DO internet.

2) The Kindle has 4x the titles to choose from.

You just can't argue with those two facts. That's why the Sony Reader was a dud and the Kindle will pave the way for success in this market.

Well, you *can* argue those two facts, or at least their relevance or how "big" they are.

EV-DO is in many ways less useful than, for example, wi-fi. About 60% of the land area in the USA doesn't have sprint EVDO, and as far as I know, no where outside the USA. But many places have wi-fi hotspots that truly are free (i.e. no charges for rss, blogs, or emails from yourself of your own content.)

The 4x the titles to choose from is quite misleading. A large number of those titles are not consumer titles, and it also includes a lot of public domain and vanity press titles that are either free elsewhere or not worth reading in the first place. Looking at consumer oriented titles from legit publishers, the advantage for amazon is pretty marginal.

All that said, the kindle is an interesting offering and I am curious whether it kills off sony and is successful enough for amazon to care.

The question is, how many units must amazon sell for them to consider this a success? I would venture it would have to be 5 times what sony sold, i.e. hundreds of thousands of units in the first year or so.

I come to that conclusion by noting that they devoted their entire front page for 3 days to this product during one of the busiest shopping weeks of the year, and as of this writing it still consumes 1/3 of the front page. That kind of push is worth many millions in revenue from an eye-balls point of view, they could have been pushing other items that are hot and would have sold many thousands of units.

Hence, anything less than a hundred thousand units in year one has to be considered a disaster for Amazon.

[nnpptt]

Fair enough, but judging by consumers' reactions to the Kindle, 100k is a very reachable number. Just getting a foot in the door in this business is a start. As handhelds merge with phones (and e-readers), Amazon is at least trying to stake a claim in this market. They're doing pretty well, too:

http://comparati.com/1125-Amazon-Kindle-vs-Sony-Reader

Even the Bookeen and Sony folks have ended up fairly happy.

Originally Posted by silvania

Well, you *can* argue those two facts, or at least their relevance or how "big" they are.

EV-DO is in many ways less useful than, for example, wi-fi. About 60% of the land area in the USA doesn't have sprint EVDO, and as far as I know, no where outside the USA. But many places have wi-fi hotspots that truly are free (i.e. no charges for rss, blogs, or emails from yourself of your own content.)

The 4x the titles to choose from is quite misleading. A large number of those titles are not consumer titles, and it also includes a lot of public domain and vanity press titles that are either free elsewhere or not worth reading in the first place. Looking at consumer oriented titles from legit publishers, the advantage for amazon is pretty marginal.

All that said, the kindle is an interesting offering and I am curious whether it kills off sony and is successful enough for amazon to care.

The question is, how many units must amazon sell for them to consider this a success? I would venture it would have to be 5 times what sony sold, i.e. hundreds of thousands of units in the first year or so.

I come to that conclusion by noting that they devoted their entire front page for 3 days to this product during one of the busiest shopping weeks of the year, and as of this writing it still consumes 1/3 of the front page. That kind of push is worth many millions in revenue from an eye-balls point of view, they could have been pushing other items that are hot and would have sold many thousands of units.

Hence, anything less than a hundred thousand units in year one has to be considered a disaster for Amazon.

[silvania]

Originally Posted by nnpptt

Fair enough, but judging by consumers' reactions to the Kindle, 100k is a very reachable number. Just getting a foot in the door in this business is a start. As handhelds merge with phones (and e-readers), Amazon is at least trying to stake a claim in this market. They're doing pretty well, too:

http://comparati.com/1125-Amazon-Kindle-vs-Sony-Reader

Even the Bookeen and Sony folks have ended up fairly happy.

Well, Amazon is not doing all this to "get a foot in the door." They want to not only dominated the ebook market but grow it ten-fold. Currently the entire market in english speaking countries is only about $25 million retail a year. Owning 100% of that tiny market would not interest Amazon in the slightest. If they cannot grow this industry into the hundreds of millions, which they *then* dominate, then they will exit this business within 2 to 3 years.

Sony, I'm afraid, is putting a brave face on. I don't see Sony surviving in the ebook business past 2008. Just look at the comments in some of the mobile read threads, littered with people saying "my kindle has replaced my sony", and almost nothing on the other side of that.

Sony was already struggling to justify their ebook venture. Kindle is the final nail in the coffin for Sony. I'll be amazed if they don't shut it down sometime in 2008. Normally these kinds of decision are made in June through August. The decision will be made before the manufacturing season for 2008 holidays begins in September.

Bookeen is a small private company and this may in fact be good for them by growing the market. Their requirements for revenue to stay in the game is no where near what sony's is. Big companies will dump products far faster than small companies will, in general.

[nekokami]

I suppose if Sony does drop ebooks (and I don't know if they will, and I don't own a Sony Reader anyway), it's possible that someone else will buy that end of the business. Maybe even Amazon, but I kind of doubt it. They'd have to either support BBeB or provide a software patch to convert Sony devices into virtual Kindles, then convert existing Sony purchases to Kindle store purchases. I think that would be a brilliant move on their part (if Sony does exit the market), but it wouldn't be cheap for them.

On the other hand, Borders or Barnes & Noble might take on the Sony ebook business entirely.

[JSWolf]

Originally Posted by nnpptt

Fair enough, but judging by consumers' reactions to the Kindle, 100k is a very reachable number. Just getting a foot in the door in this business is a start. As handhelds merge with phones (and e-readers), Amazon is at least trying to stake a claim in this market. They're doing pretty well, too:

http://comparati.com/1125-Amazon-Kindle-vs-Sony-Reader

Even the Bookeen and Sony folks have ended up fairly happy.

What a load of misinformation. There is a lot of it there. I've flagged a number of points for review as they are flat out wrong.

[rflashman]

Originally Posted by silvania

EV-DO is in many ways less useful than, for example, wi-fi. About 60% of the land area in the USA doesn't have sprint EVDO, and as far as I know, no where outside the USA. But many places have wi-fi hotspots that truly are free (i.e. no charges for rss, blogs, or emails from yourself of your own content.)

1. Kindle will automatically fall back on the slower Spring data network, covering pretty much everywhere in the U.S.

2. It's a matter of perspective. In my office, a big Fortune 500, there is NO open wifi, but sprint's network works just fine.

[NatCh]

Originally Posted by silvania

Just look at the comments in some of the mobile read threads, littered with people saying "my kindle has replaced my sony", and almost nothing on the other side of that.

I'm not sure that's a very good point of comparison seeing as nobody had a Kindle before it launched two weeks ago -- how could they be replacing one with anything?

Right now folks who want the Sony over the Kindle would just buy a Sony.

There are several threads talking about why folks went with or want to stick with their Sony Readers instead of going Kindle. In any case, it's no surprise that the Kindle fits some people's needs better than the Sony does, the reverse is true, and for that matter some are best served by the iLiad. I think it's waaaaay to early to announce a winner in this arena, especially when it's not entirely clear which devices will shake out to be direct competitors.

[mogui]

The biggest single drawback to the Kindle is that you can't do anything for free.

[azog]

Originally Posted by mogui

The biggest single drawback to the Kindle is that you can't do anything for free.

I've downloaded a bunch of free mobibooks and they work fine.

[DaleDe]

Originally Posted by azog

I've downloaded a bunch of free mobibooks and they work fine.

exactly, there are just a many free things you can do with the device as will any other eBook reader and for now there are even more.

You can submit files to convert and receive them via email for free.
You can create your own content for free in MobiPocket.
You can use non-DRM MobiePocket books for free.
You can browse the web for free.

Dale

[mogui]

Originally Posted by DaleDe

exactly, there are just a many free things you can do with the device as will any other eBook reader and for now there are even more.
You can submit files to convert and receive them via email for free.
You can create your own content for free in MobiPocket.
You can use non-DRM MobiePocket books for free.
You can browse the web for free.Dale

I read somewhere that it cost US$0.10 to convert your own material for installation on the Kindle. Also the web access was restricted to Amazon's store. Is this obsolete information? Or is it just pre-launch speculation?

If I am mistaken, you may start stewing the crow.