Bill Gates staking his reputation on Tablet PCs

Brian · 10-18-2005, 05:07 PM

Mike Wendland, a technology writer for the Detroit Free Press recently covered a surprise visit by Bill Gates to the University of Michigan. Wendland, a Tablet PC user, had a chance to speak with Bill about the future of the Tablet PC, which has been rather slow to take off, and here's what Gates said:

"Most people still don't think the tablet will pay off, but I'm staking my reputation on it in a very big way."

In another article posted today, Wendland talks more about the Tablet PC platform, which he's pretty bullish about when you consider the title of his article: Microsoft has a winner with Tablet PC operating system.

Is the Tablet PC a winner, or will it remain a niche product? Will Apple make a Mac tablet that appeals to mass markets when the time is right, accomplishing something that Microsoft and its OEMs have struggled with? Does a tablet device make a good e-book, e-newspaper and e-magazine reading device? Please add your thoughts to the discussion thread.

[via jkontherun]

Bob Russell · 10-18-2005, 05:39 PM

I think the Vista version of Tablet OS will tell us a lot about how much progress we can expect to see. My concern is that it will be so bloated and require such significant specs to run (as per some desktop min specs rumors), that tablets will actually face a set-back instead of moving forward. But if the specs are reasonable in the Tablet version of Vista, maybe it could be awesome based on an OS designed with the future of Tablets (and the gamble of Bill's reputation) in mind. It will be very interesting to see. But it MS doesn't do it decently, watch out for open source systems!

rlauzon · 10-18-2005, 05:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian

...here's what Gates said:

"Most people still don't think the tablet will pay off, but I'm staking my reputation on it in a very big way."

*Snicker* His "reputation".

Tablet PCs will take off at some point, but not if they are just keyboard-less laptops. Tablets will be the convergence of PDAs and laptops, but that won't happen until low power screens are cheap and battery life is high. A tablet that can be used only 3 hours before a recharge is useless. A tablet that is unreadable in bright sunlight is also useless.

cervezas · 10-19-2005, 09:15 AM

I gave the Lenovo/IBM X-41 tablet a try for about 30 minutes a couple of weeks ago, and while I have to hand it to those guys for developing a convertible tablet that weighs 3 lbs and runs for 8 hrs, I couldn't get past the feeling that I was fighting with OneNote to get it to do what I wanted with my handwritten notes. Although the handwriting recognition was pretty good it was too hard to fix the errors that did occur and doing so completely broke the flow of the work, which violates the whole premise of why someone would want to use a tablet. I noticed that even the IBM reps who were trying to sell these things had difficulty with it. I know it can be done much, much better.

I'm hopeful that products from Palm's future "Third Business" will challenge Bill's vision regarding tablets. Tablets need to be smaller, lighter and (on the software side) easier/quicker to work with than a laptop for them to gain wider popularity. Among other things, I think they need to be instant-on/instant-off devices like a Palm PDA. I think Gates understands about the smaller/lighter part, but Hawkins' and Co have a better bead on what it takes to make something like this a pleasure to use. It will be a significant challenge, but I expect MS to continue to fumble on this for a while, so there is an opportunity.

Brian · 10-19-2005, 10:01 AM

Great points David, and I'm hoping and thinking the same thing about Palm's "third business" - a small tablet/hybrid clamshell (with a thumbboard as well as tablet mode for handwriting/digital ink) computer that is pocketable, and it becomes your primary computing device. Bill and Co. don't understand the 80/20 rule, so their user experience will always suffer. Apple and Palm do understand the importance of usability, the user experience, and providing end-users with "solutions" that "just work", so I expect the same will hold true when it comes to mini-tablets.

The point about battery life is also right on, and it looks like Lenovo has addressed that one well with their new tablet.

Bob's point about Vista's requirements could spell trouble for Bill's vision unless some serious work is done to trim down the horsepower (CPU & video) requirements, which will have adirect effect on battery life as well as the size and weight of tablets. Smaller, lighter, and less power hungry = better.

As far as the current form factor of convertible tablets, they'll probably remain niche products for vertical markets and the healthcare industry unless a "killer app" comes along that gives the Tablet PC more mass market appeal.

Bob Russell · 10-19-2005, 10:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian

...I'm hoping and thinking the same thing about Palm's "third business" - a small tablet/hybrid clamshell (with a thumbboard as well as tablet mode for handwriting/digital ink) computer that is pocketable, and it becomes your primary computing device...

There was talk about new product announcements by Palm by the end of the year. Does anyone know if that was just the T|X and T22, or if it referred to the third line of business? I was under the impression that it was an announcement of things to come, not actual product releases like these recent pdas. But I can't find the original quote.

Anyone know if there's reason to believe we'll hear more about the third Palm line this year?

rmeister0 · 10-19-2005, 11:22 AM

I'm bullish on tablets myself; I've used three of them over the past two and half years to varying degrees of satisfaction. There are still some serious problems.

Hardware has to catch up. Batteries need to provide power longer with less weight, and this is still the biggest obstacle. Rlauzon is right; for tablets to really work in their target markets an 8-hour runtime is key. Power consumption needs to be reduced, which Intel is managing quite well with the Pentium M chips. Hitachi's micro-drives are also making good progress increasing data density in small form factors.

Microsoft needs to eliminate the price premium for the Tablet version of Windows. One would hope this would happen in Vista, but given the rumors that Vista will ship in up to 7(!) different versions, this seems unlikely. More likely one of those versions will strip some of the extraneous eye-candy from the GUI for use on constrained devices like tablets.

I'm hopeful for the Fujitsu Lifebook 1500, which I've got on order (if my vendor can ever figure out if they're actually in stock or not!). I hope to write up a detailed review once I've had a chance to play around on it, with some emphasis on the e-book dimension.

In the end I think there's going to be some really killer tablet style hardware about 5 years or so out. For all their faults, MS has deep pockets and will keep chipping away at the problem.

Brian · 10-19-2005, 11:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BobR

There was talk about new product announcements by Palm by the end of the year. Does anyone know if that was just the T|X and T22, or if it referred to the third line of business? I was under the impression that it was an announcement of things to come, not actual product releases like these recent pdas. But I can't find the original quote.

Anyone know if there's reason to believe we'll hear more about the third Palm line this year?

Bob,

When Ed Colligan was asked during the Analyst Day presentation on 9/26 whether the Treo 700 would be the only product announcement through the end of the year, I believe he said something to the effect of, "We still have a few tricks up our sleeves."

While the T|X and Z22 are repsectable devices, I hardly think they'd be worthy of being deemed the tricks Ed Colligan was referring to.

Smiley88 · 10-22-2005, 09:54 PM

I've tried the tablets at various trade shows and found myself a bit non-plussed. If I need to do handwriting why not use a PDA? The PDA provides Word/Excel/Powerpoint functionality and a much more compact size. If I wanted a bigger screen why not opt for a super thin laptop with a keyboard (always faster to input than handwriting). I had opportunity to try an IBM ultra thin portable that ran Windows CE (a few years ago). It had the Office package, could do internet, and other apps could be installed. And, significantly cheaper than a Tablet PC.

Bill is a smart guy and rich but I don't think his "support" of the Tablet PC is enough to force people to accept this unnecessary concept (proven by sales numbers). The Fujitsu/HP products et al are slick but the price is so premium to make them easily replaced with cheaper alternatives.

I wouldn't mind seeing a Palm/Apple alternative but would hope the profile to be smaller and cheaper (sort of a PDA on steroids). Apple may have stripped down versions of iWork/iLife that can work on a portable device that would be a good competition for the PSP as well as PDAs.

10-18-2005, 05:07 PM	#1
Brian MobileRead Editor Posts: 447 Karma: 84 Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Massachusetts Device: Treo 700p, Zodiac2	Bill Gates staking his reputation on Tablet PCs Mike Wendland, a technology writer for the Detroit Free Press recently covered a surprise visit by Bill Gates to the University of Michigan. Wendland, a Tablet PC user, had a chance to speak with Bill about the future of the Tablet PC, which has been rather slow to take off, and here's what Gates said: "Most people still don't think the tablet will pay off, but I'm staking my reputation on it in a very big way." In another article posted today, Wendland talks more about the Tablet PC platform, which he's pretty bullish about when you consider the title of his article: Microsoft has a winner with Tablet PC operating system. Is the Tablet PC a winner, or will it remain a niche product? Will Apple make a Mac tablet that appeals to mass markets when the time is right, accomplishing something that Microsoft and its OEMs have struggled with? Does a tablet device make a good e-book, e-newspaper and e-magazine reading device? Please add your thoughts to the discussion thread. [via jkontherun]

10-19-2005, 09:15 AM	#4
cervezas palm & java hacker Posts: 52 Karma: 251 Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Manitou Springs, CO Device: Visor, T3, i500, iQue ...	I gave the Lenovo/IBM X-41 tablet a try for about 30 minutes a couple of weeks ago, and while I have to hand it to those guys for developing a convertible tablet that weighs 3 lbs and runs for 8 hrs, I couldn't get past the feeling that I was fighting with OneNote to get it to do what I wanted with my handwritten notes. Although the handwriting recognition was pretty good it was too hard to fix the errors that did occur and doing so completely broke the flow of the work, which violates the whole premise of why someone would want to use a tablet. I noticed that even the IBM reps who were trying to sell these things had difficulty with it. I know it can be done much, much better. I'm hopeful that products from Palm's future "Third Business" will challenge Bill's vision regarding tablets. Tablets need to be smaller, lighter and (on the software side) easier/quicker to work with than a laptop for them to gain wider popularity. Among other things, I think they need to be instant-on/instant-off devices like a Palm PDA. I think Gates understands about the smaller/lighter part, but Hawkins' and Co have a better bead on what it takes to make something like this a pleasure to use. It will be a significant challenge, but I expect MS to continue to fumble on this for a while, so there is an opportunity. Last edited by cervezas; 10-19-2005 at 09:17 AM.

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10-18-2005, 05:39 PM	#2
Bob Russell Recovering Gadget Addict Posts: 5,381 Karma: 676161 Join Date: May 2004 Location: Pittsburgh, PA Device: iPad	I think the Vista version of Tablet OS will tell us a lot about how much progress we can expect to see. My concern is that it will be so bloated and require such significant specs to run (as per some desktop min specs rumors), that tablets will actually face a set-back instead of moving forward. But if the specs are reasonable in the Tablet version of Vista, maybe it could be awesome based on an OS designed with the future of Tablets (and the gamble of Bill's reputation) in mind. It will be very interesting to see. But it MS doesn't do it decently, watch out for open source systems!

10-19-2005, 10:01 AM	#5
Brian MobileRead Editor Posts: 447 Karma: 84 Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Massachusetts Device: Treo 700p, Zodiac2	Great points David, and I'm hoping and thinking the same thing about Palm's "third business" - a small tablet/hybrid clamshell (with a thumbboard as well as tablet mode for handwriting/digital ink) computer that is pocketable, and it becomes your primary computing device. Bill and Co. don't understand the 80/20 rule, so their user experience will always suffer. Apple and Palm do understand the importance of usability, the user experience, and providing end-users with "solutions" that "just work", so I expect the same will hold true when it comes to mini-tablets. The point about battery life is also right on, and it looks like Lenovo has addressed that one well with their new tablet. Bob's point about Vista's requirements could spell trouble for Bill's vision unless some serious work is done to trim down the horsepower (CPU & video) requirements, which will have adirect effect on battery life as well as the size and weight of tablets. Smaller, lighter, and less power hungry = better. As far as the current form factor of convertible tablets, they'll probably remain niche products for vertical markets and the healthcare industry unless a "killer app" comes along that gives the Tablet PC more mass market appeal.

10-19-2005, 11:22 AM	#7
rmeister0 Addict Posts: 270 Karma: 298 Join Date: Mar 2005	I'm bullish on tablets myself; I've used three of them over the past two and half years to varying degrees of satisfaction. There are still some serious problems. Hardware has to catch up. Batteries need to provide power longer with less weight, and this is still the biggest obstacle. Rlauzon is right; for tablets to really work in their target markets an 8-hour runtime is key. Power consumption needs to be reduced, which Intel is managing quite well with the Pentium M chips. Hitachi's micro-drives are also making good progress increasing data density in small form factors. Microsoft needs to eliminate the price premium for the Tablet version of Windows. One would hope this would happen in Vista, but given the rumors that Vista will ship in up to 7(!) different versions, this seems unlikely. More likely one of those versions will strip some of the extraneous eye-candy from the GUI for use on constrained devices like tablets. I'm hopeful for the Fujitsu Lifebook 1500, which I've got on order (if my vendor can ever figure out if they're actually in stock or not!). I hope to write up a detailed review once I've had a chance to play around on it, with some emphasis on the e-book dimension. In the end I think there's going to be some really killer tablet style hardware about 5 years or so out. For all their faults, MS has deep pockets and will keep chipping away at the problem.

10-22-2005, 09:54 PM	#9
Smiley88 Scott Posts: 5 Karma: 20 Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: Japan Device: Tungsten/Clie UJ37	I've tried the tablets at various trade shows and found myself a bit non-plussed. If I need to do handwriting why not use a PDA? The PDA provides Word/Excel/Powerpoint functionality and a much more compact size. If I wanted a bigger screen why not opt for a super thin laptop with a keyboard (always faster to input than handwriting). I had opportunity to try an IBM ultra thin portable that ran Windows CE (a few years ago). It had the Office package, could do internet, and other apps could be installed. And, significantly cheaper than a Tablet PC. Bill is a smart guy and rich but I don't think his "support" of the Tablet PC is enough to force people to accept this unnecessary concept (proven by sales numbers). The Fujitsu/HP products et al are slick but the price is so premium to make them easily replaced with cheaper alternatives. I wouldn't mind seeing a Palm/Apple alternative but would hope the profile to be smaller and cheaper (sort of a PDA on steroids). Apple may have stripped down versions of iWork/iLife that can work on a portable device that would be a good competition for the PSP as well as PDAs.

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