Tapping the Market: How powerful should a PDA be?

[macrotor]

An excellent thread about multi-tasking brought up an old debate that is due for review: how powerful & complex should a Palm be in order to be successful?

A while back, there was a pretty solid division between PocketPCs and Palms. Palms were a powerful organizer, and PocketPCs were a weak PC. Please don't take that the wrong way. There were high-power things that only PocketPCs could do, but the Palm seemed to be a much more useful useful and speedy device for staying organized. Each had a market.

But the rules have changed. Cellphones now do what the old PalmOS4 devices did, and PalmOne is now putting some serious hardware in their devices. The lines have blurred. Cellphones are primarily a PDA, PPCs are primarily a Palmtop computer, and Palms are spread across between the two.

I've heard both arguments that PalmOne should concentrate on affordability or dominant power. So far, it seems PalmOne is trying to do both.

I am rather impressed at how well the Zire 21/31 did when it arrived, but I wonder how its doing now? Honestly, I can get a cellphone that is nearly as capable for half the cost with activation. A stand-alone low-end organizer doesn't make much sense to me anymore. Frankly, I think the touch-screen is what is keeping the stand-alone PDA in business. In a few months, I predict touch-screens will become more common in cellphones as well.

As for the high-end "Palmtop Computer," the market is getting pretty rough between the PPC and Palm.

So, where is the market that Palm should go for? We've asked this before, but the market is a moving target, so I'm curious what people think now. Palm has devices in all regions available. They range from the Zire31, to Zire72, to Treo650, to Tungsten|C, Tungsten|T5, and finally the LifeDrive. Talk about having all your bases covered! I wonder where they are making the money? Do people see the prices being fair on each device?

Personally, I think the Treo650 is a winner for feature/price. It is bar-none, the most powerful and easy-to-use cellphone there is (yes, I looked at the MS Smartphones...they failed), and the price is justified. The other golden-boy is that price-reduced Tungsten|C, but the lack of bluetooth is a killer. Between the cellphones and Palmtops, it seems it's the middle-priced "powerful enough" Palms with connectivity that look the best to me.

However, once that Linux system is out, they might just overtake the PPCs as a Palmtop. The question is wether this is where the money is.

- Jim

[Bob Russell]

Great topic.

I agree quite a bit if we focus on what pdas are doing today. You may not really need much more power. Lower price and power requirements would be really nice though! And I agree that the Treo650 is fantastic. Would more power help? I don't know. But a better and brighter screen and more memory would be nice. Faster hotsync would be nice. Wifi. Etc. It's great the way it is, but surely you have more "power" items that you'd like to see added.

There will always be power users that want the most in a handheld they can get. More is better, and more is never enough! That would be me, for example. And it seems, fortunately, that there's still money to be made there. It's just not a great growth market like phones.

And I expect if we look further into the future, there are going to be a lot of reasons to use more power that we haven't thought much about already. I bet the device makers are already chomping at the bits for more power to do some of the things that are in the wings already. For example, looking ahead, voice recognition, handwriting recognition, AI processing of text, faster search, etc. are all expected future features that will get better and better with more processing power. I bet there are a lot of other things that will become useful also that we can't really even imagine, but they'll be neat and they'll require more powerful devices to do it.

[TadW]

Excellent topic and continuation of our last discussion on multithreading. I am afraid I am undecided here. On the one hand I would like to have a PDA that is so powerful that it can play my favorite movies, do all daily Internet tasks, and allow me to play games in wonderful 3D gfx with surround sound. On the other hand I don't think this is what the majority needs or wants, which is probably why Palm vendors better think twice before going in the niche of "power" users.

But why does it have to be either - or? With Linux on its side, PalmSource should be in the comfortable position to adjust its operation system depending on the hardware vendor's needs. Sure there has to be a core system, the kernel, which cannot and must not differ too much. Same API calls, same basic routines. But when it comes to multimedia and Internet connectivity it should be made relatively easy to add necessary kernel modules to support "high-end" PDAs, if required. This is the beauty of Linux. You can install it on your Pentium IV desktop, but you can also install it on your TV receiver, your WiFi access point, your coffee machine, you name it. PalmSource's job is to work on the core to make it stable enough, to optimize it for handheld use, and to establish a modular framework allowing to add support for all kinds of devices from the mini cell phone to the tablet PC. At the end, we'll have a lot more hardware vendors (PalmOne watch out!) who'll dare to bring out new and innovative devices, based on PalmSource's software, testing the market and adjusting towards what customers want.

[Antoine of MMM]

I dunno about more power being needed to define the PalmOS, but I do agree that it does need to do more with what it has so that the more power is justified in the minds of developers and customers alike. I guess that for that reason, Palm has kept things slower than the PPC side (that and all that power really isnt needed). Sony had the right idea with low speed but the use of a DSP for audio processes. Unfortunately, people are still motivated by the number rather than the performance and so that might not work with every model.

Sounds like the hardware for the PalmOS platform needs to mature as well as the OS. Not just in terms of speed and abilities, but actualy execution of those advanced processes.

[derekweb]

I would have to agree with Antoine. I think that Palm1 needs to do better with what is already there, in terms of marriage between hardware/software. PalmSource is busting hard to get a great OS, but let's face it, until the Yin/Yang on Palm's side balances, it's going to be a rough sailing for a bit.

PPC side, they're starting to shore up and smooth out their sails, ... so who knows.

Linux on the Handheld. Would be wonderful, but ONLY if they can balance three factors: Hardware / OS / Software. The hardware capability has to be there, the OS needs to be able to support both high and low end hardware that it's going to run on, and Software needs to be there to entice endusers to actually buy and use the product. Otherwise, why would I want to put out $400 to $600 for this kind of device? I don't mind using Linux, I like it actually. Having it around gives me *choice*, and I like that. /shrug/

Question: Where is the market now for Palm computers?
Three locations, with everything else (in my opinion being niche).
Low, High, and Phone. And let me expound on these "titles".

Low end - for the new endusers. However, unlike the very low end current model Zires (pre-color bottom line zires), these need to show more of what is out there, help users find why they would like the devices and why they should upgrade to the more powerful. The newer Zires' are moving to this philosophy.

High end - For the geeks like us that really like being able to use it to replace our laptops out on the move. Simply put, it's a size / weight / convienence factor, and having a palm computer that can do everything is just frankly, awesome.

Phone end - The Treo 650 is a heavy influence for me here. My dream of a Phone end is a Palm Computer with about 75% capability of the High End, ... in other words, it can do just about everything. Only problem is that battery life is a huge issue. To that end, there needs to be several points answered. Removable battery for replacement on the fly, docking cradle with extra slip for the spare bat, flexible use of the processor (speed stepping on the fly), good screen options, ... and probably best with an included, SLIP ON EXTERNAL button thumbboard.

It's all about the options. Having a handheld like the hx2755 (iPaq) or T5, is great. Having a slip on thumb board is even better, especially if it's included in the box. Gives the endusers options, and you don't have to worry about compatibility. If it's in the box, it's usually a good sign that there's already been some good testing done. But that way, the Graffiti users get what they want, the blackberry users can be happy too, and the world goes on. :-)

[derekweb]

I hope I didn't kill this particular discussion. :-o

[Antoine of MMM]

No death on the discussion Derekweb;
But the point has basically been made that now that there is little seperating a PalmOS PDA from a WinMob one; what will the PalmOS platform do to make people take notice. Yes, it can do the LD like devices that do everything well. And occasionally have the Treo 650 like devices that make peolpe go wow. But what is really needed from the platform is a intent to innovate at the cost of creating a better consumer. This comes in time, but can happen if the software and hardware people talk and work towards a unifide goal of seamless mobile computing. Not just smartphones for everyone, and PDAs for everyone else.