"Mainstream Acceptance"

[Kali Yuga]

A few months ago, Amazon proclaimed that ebooks were outselling hardcovers in the US; now they're outselling paperbacks. Soon they will likely outsell all paper versions.

How many ebook readers are out there? At a very rough and conservative guess:

- Assuming that Amazon did sell close to 8 million Kindles in 2010, we might say that there are about 12 million Kindles in current use.
- I have no clue how many Nooks, Sonys and other devices sold. Let's be conservative and say 5 million of those are in current use.
- Apple sold about 8 million iPads, and there are lots of smartphones out there. Let's presume that 1 million people use an iPad or smartphone and don't own another ebook reader.
- There are approximately 65 million Americans currently buy books.

So, we could be looking at as many as 18 million ebook device owners, out of 65 million book buyers, in the US -- or a little over 25% of the book buying population. This may be too optimistic, but could well be the case by the end of 2011.

Would either of these benchmarks -- 25% of buyers own ebook devices / ebooks outsell all paper -- qualify as ebooks going "mainstream," in the US at least? Or is there some other standard that makes more sense?

[amoroso]

Originally Posted by Kali Yuga

Would either of these benchmarks -- 25% of buyers own ebook devices / ebooks outsell all paper -- qualify as ebooks going "mainstream," in the US at least? Or is there some other standard that makes more sense?

There may be additional mainstream-ness metrics, such as buzz, "psychological" thresholds, or speed of market penetration change.

[Anthem]

Originally Posted by Kali Yuga

Would either of these benchmarks -- 25% of buyers own ebook devices / ebooks outsell all paper -- qualify as ebooks going "mainstream," in the US at least?

Absolutely or Not At All! (I couldn't decide which way I wanted to answer).

Are we worried about the "mainstream" monicker being applied? Is it momentous somehow?

[GA Russell]

I think that selling more eBooks than hardcopies is a good enough benchmark.

Personally, I think that Amazon alone is enough. But I would be willing to push the target a little bit back and include B&N's and Borders' websites as well.

I might be willing to consider pushing the target back even further and include B&N's and Borders' b&m stores. For example, when the day comes that B&N as a company sells more eBooks than hardcopies (by whatever means), then the eBook would clearly be mainstream.

I don't think that the percentage of the population or the percentage of readers (people who read) is as important as the percentage of books.

By the way, for purposes of this discussion, I would include free downloads of public domain works. Free eBooks might not help the retailers and the publishers, but the idea of "mainstream" concerns what the public is doing, not how profitable the businesses are.

[Jellby]

The Kindle, iPad, etc. sales figures are in the US or worldwide?

[GeoffC]

18 million devices, but no indication of how many are attracting dust in a drawer....

[ProfCrash]

Originally Posted by GeoffC

18 million devices, but no indication of how many are attracting dust in a drawer....

How many paper backs bought as gifts gathering dust on a shelf?

[GeoffC]

Originally Posted by ProfCrash

How many paper backs bought as gifts gathering dust on a shelf?

One reason why there is no guarantee the same has not happened to the electronic versions ... except all mine are gathering dust because I use the electronic reader instead ....

[ProfCrash]

Originally Posted by GeoffC

One reason why there is no guarantee the same has not happened to the electronic versions ... except all mine are gathering dust because I use the electronic reader instead ....

Sales are sales. It doesn't matter if they are not being used. The story points to the growth in the ebook market and how quickly it is happening.

[rhadin]

I think counting the number of devices in use that are capable of reading ebooks is the wrong metric. Even here on MR some device owners are more interested in using their device to surf the Internet than to read ebooks and the fact that nearly every cell phone is capable of ebook reading doesn't mean that more than a trickle of them are so being used.

I think the metric of exceeding hardcover sales also is not a good metric. The reason is that (I think) to be a good metric, every ebook that is sold has to also be offered in ebook form and the pricing needs to be equivalent for both formats.

I think the true metric is the day ebooks capture 20% or more of the paperback market if the measure is only sales where a buyer has a choice between the paperback and the ebook version at an equivalent price.

Of course, the definition of mainstream could be simply that more than x number of people are willing to and do read an ebook, in which case, ebooks are already mainstream.

[rhadin]

Originally Posted by ProfCrash

How many paper backs bought as gifts gathering dust on a shelf?

And how many ebooks are gathering "dust" in the to-be-read pile on the electronic shelf? I'm not sure that gathering dust is a negative.

I know that I recently (within the last 6 weeks) purchased more than 40 ebooks and they have been added to my dust-gathering TBR pile.

The issue is really one of attitude. Did I buy these books with the intent of reading them or am I simply swept up in the current fad of spending real dollars on virtual items? I suspect that if we accept the 18 million devices as equalling 18 million ebook buyers, that probably no more than 10% of the buyers really have the intent to read ebooks once the initial novelty wears off. The more people that actually continue to buy ebooks with the intent to read them, the more mainstream ebooks will have become.

[Anthem]

Originally Posted by ProfCrash

The story points to the growth in the ebook market and how quickly it is happening.

How quickly it is happening now. As you and the rest of us know only too well, e-books are far from new and this recent explosion has been dramatically preceded by numerous pops, fizzles, and the general noise of deserted windy desert cities.

Originally Posted by rhadin

I think counting the number of devices in use that are capable of reading ebooks is the wrong metric.

I don't know if it is the wrong metric, but it would certainly only get us part way to an answer without acceding an entire answer all on it's own. Much more would be needed besides to make an accurate determination.

I have always considered a device, network, activity, et cetera, mainstream as soon as it has penetrated the minds of a wide number of people and is regarded with feelings of rank normality. When people shrug their shoulders at the mention of or fail to notice e-books and e-readers as anything out of the ordinary, then we have hit mainstream. That moment is approaching quickly thanks to the long delayed popularity that we are now seeing blossom.

Thankfully, the more mainstream these things become the more Nora Roberts, Dan Brown, and Harlen Coben's wallets can be padded out with blood money.

(I just wanted to point out that the last line is extreme sarcasm and should be treated as such!)

[DixieGal]

In 2015, ebooks will be commonplace. In 2020, they will be unremarkable. In 2025, a generation will have grown up with them, paperbacks will have rotted to dust and mold, and hardbacks will be collectible.

I find it easy to assume that at present, ebooks are having a major impact on culture. That is because I spend so much time here talking about them. However, outside of airports, the country is mostly non-readers in general. Ebooks are just a less sexy electronic gadget. Although the iPad and NC commercials are gorgeous, almost a reading romance movie.

[ardeegee]

Originally Posted by Anthem

I have always considered a device, network, activity, et cetera, mainstream as soon as it has penetrated the minds of a wide number of people and is regarded with feelings of rank normality.

I agree. New tech is mainstream when it people stop noticing it. TV wasn't mainstream until people stopped walking into a friend's house for the first time and saying "oh, my god, you have a television!" A metric I've always used for a tech becoming mainstream is when it shows up in "general" stores-- such as when my local drugstore first started selling CD-Rs, or Wal-Mart started selling DVDs. Late last year, my local drugstore started selling (lousy) ebook readers...