iPad Apple iPad Hoopla Fails to Convince Buyers

[kjk]

http://www.retrevo.com/content/blog/...onvince-buyers

Unfortunately for Apple, the number if respondents saying they had heard about the tablet but were not interested in buying one, doubled from 25% before the announcement to over 50% following the announcement.

What is interesting about this, is Retrevo did a survey last October:
http://blogs.zdnet.com/gadgetreviews/?p=11426


In this survey, the price point was $700...Apple is $200 below that price, and it really didn't help at all.

Note also that long battery life was supposedly the big feature people wanted, and a long term contract was the big feature no one wanted. Apple met both of those requirements. Looks like they missed on "Solar recharging" though

Interesting numbers-I think the initial interest number was abnormally high, but we'll see in a couple months how popular it turns out to be.

[dmaul1114]

I think Apple may have misfired with their marketing a bit. They focused a bit too much on it being a device between a phone and a laptop/netbook, and most people don't see the need for such a device right away.

They should have had stylus support built in and really sold the reading, markup and note taking function. Really harped on how good magazines and newspapers look, comic books. Show students who they can get e-text books, and highlight them easily and carry that around instead of a bunch of heavy books.

And then show them that you can also do a bunch of games, all kinds of apps, browse the net, watch videos, e-mail etc.

But even then I don't know that the survey would have much better results. As much as I'm interested in a tablet, I know I unique being an academic and reading and marking up a ton of stuff--so I have a need for a electronic notepad type device.

Most people just don't need something between their phone and laptop, so tablet devices will always be a smaller market item than laptops, mp3 players, smartphones etc. that have broader appeal as more people see a clear use for them in their daily lives. But I do think there's a sizable niche that will be drawn to tablet devices if they're designed and marketed properly--they're necessary to go to a paper-less office, paper-less class room etc.

[kjk]

Originally Posted by dmaul1114

Most people just don't need something between their phone and laptop, so tablet devices will always be a smaller market item than laptops, mp3 players, smartphones etc. that have broader appeal as more people see a clear use for them in their daily lives. But I do think there's a sizable niche that will be drawn to tablet devices if they're designed and marketed properly--they're necessary to go to a paper-less office, paper-less class room etc.

I agree. I don't see this product reaching anywhere near iPod or iPhone sales numbers...but I do see it selling about what Apple's desktops/notebooks sell per quarter...as a reference, for Q01/2010:
Macs: 3.4 million
iPhones: 8.7 million
iPod: 21 million

[dmaul1114]

We'll see. I'm skeptical it will get that high, as everyone needs a PC and/or laptop, not everyone needs a tablet.

So Apple gets Mac sales from people needing pcs/laptops but wanting to get away from Windows, while the Tablet will just appeal to people who need something between a phone and laptop AND don't care about windows OS etc. so it's a smaller market as a whole I'd think.

But I hope it sells well. Even though it doesn't quite fit my needs, the iPad selling well would prove there is a market for a tablet devices that aren't full PCs and give me more options as competitors rush into the market.

[fugazied]

It's one of those devices that you didn't know you couldn't live without until you got one :P

Just like the iPhone. So many times you hear people say they didn't see the need for all the stuff the iPhone could do, until they bought one. Then suddenly they are checking mail, playing games, doing banking, buying stuff via their phone.

For example It's difficult to fully appreciate the iPads ability to REPLACE magazines and newspapers in your home until you have it in your home. Or to replace your photo album, now you will just use an iPad to show friends photos. There are lots more examples, with the ability to have apps it can do all kinds of things we haven't envisioned.

[Sonist]

Originally Posted by dmaul1114

We'll see. I'm skeptical it will get that high, as everyone needs a PC and/or laptop, not everyone needs a tablet....

An intuitive, multifunction device with the right form factor, which excels at web-browsing, video and music playing, gaming and reading, would sell well, IMO.

The major problem is, that without Flash, the iPad will be crippled for web-browsing, as well for watching much of the currently available video on the web. The availability of Hulu, and the Silverlight-based Netflix streaming service, would have been a reason for many to get an iPad.

But, alas, it's not likely to happen. And, I am afraid, the walled-off Apple TV system already proved to be a total failure.

[dmaul1114]

We'll see, like I said, I hope it does sell really well. But I'm skeptical as the buzz around it online is pretty mixed--even when discounting the Apple haters/Apple fanboys.

I do think the magazine and newspaper angle really needs a lot of focus. And I say that as someone who reads neither regularly--don't subscribe to any, seldom buy one, just use the web for news and info. But many people do and tablets can replace paper versions much better than e-ink readers or PCs/laptops.

And I do agree that lack of flash hurts it on the video front, which is a HUGE use of the internet with many people (espeically younger folk) ditching cable and streaming shows online. If they don't add flash they at least need to add free apps for Hulu, the network sites etc. to get the video on the iPad like they've done with Youtube.

[darius]

Originally Posted by dmaul1114

We'll see. I'm skeptical it will get that high, as everyone needs a PC and/or laptop, not everyone needs a tablet.

So Apple gets Mac sales from people needing pcs/laptops but wanting to get away from Windows, while the Tablet will just appeal to people who need something between a phone and laptop AND don't care about windows OS etc. so it's a smaller market as a whole I'd think.

But I hope it sells well. Even though it doesn't quite fit my needs, the iPad selling well would prove there is a market for a tablet devices that aren't full PCs and give me more options as competitors rush into the market.

Anyone who needs a PC or laptop already has one, ie. Market saturation yet there are millions of people who still buy laptops every year and that market is increasing. No one has a tablet like this. So the potential is huge. And once Apple gets it's marketing hooks into this, everyone is going to want one.

[nekokami]

Originally Posted by fugazied

It's one of those devices that you didn't know you couldn't live without until you got one :P

Very likely. One of the most frequent comments by people who've actually used one is that you really don't get how well it works until you try it.

Originally Posted by Sonist

The major problem is, that without Flash, the iPad will be crippled for web-browsing, as well for watching much of the currently available video on the web. The availability of Hulu, and the Silverlight-based Netflix streaming service, would have been a reason for many to get an iPad.

There are a couple of open-source alternative Flash player projects out there if Apple wants to provide this functionality without going through Adobe. Apple is probably banking on HTML5, as many have speculated. It will be interesting to see if they can drive the market.

I note that Apple does offer a YouTube-specific app for iP. YouTube uses Flash. Perhaps they could generalize this.

[Bremen Cole]

Originally Posted by kjk

I agree. I don't see this product reaching anywhere near iPod or iPhone sales numbers...but I do see it selling about what Apple's desktops/notebooks sell per quarter...as a reference, for Q01/2010:
Macs: 3.4 million
iPhones: 8.7 million
iPod: 21 million

I bet you end up being right. Of course this device is not going to have iPod like sales, and iPhone type sales would also seem to be a stretch.... but the $500 price point I wager would put 3-5 million units.

[nekokami]

Don't know as it will outsell traditional desktops and notebooks. I'd put it at something more like 2 million, at least until the idea really catches on and some new apps that make the most of the form factor become available. (Maybe Apple Ink implementation.)

[scottjl]

Considering it isn't even available for preorder how can one say buyers are or aren't convinced? No one has it in their hands. One important thing this survey ignores is the fact that Apple has over 250 stores out there, they are counting on people walking in, checking the iPad out, and walking out with one, regardless of what they answer on a poll today.

[dragonbone]

Originally Posted by scottjl

Considering it isn't even available for preorder how can one say buyers are or aren't convinced? No one has it in their hands. One important thing this survey ignores is the fact that Apple has over 250 stores out there, they are counting on people walking in, checking the iPad out, and walking out with one, regardless of what they answer on a poll today.

Exactly RIGHT! Why can't people understand that basic fact ? The iPad will be sold worldwide and not only in Apple stores. They will be sold in thousands of electronic stores, airport shops, online etc. etc.

[Sonist]

Originally Posted by nekokami

... There are a couple of open-source alternative Flash player projects out there if Apple wants to provide this functionality without going through Adobe. Apple is probably banking on HTML5, as many have speculated. It will be interesting to see if they can drive the market.

I note that Apple does offer a YouTube-specific app for iP. YouTube uses Flash. Perhaps they could generalize this.

Yeah, but none will be able to get into the iPad, just like Skyfire hasn't made it to the iPhone.

Contrary to popular misconceptions, HTML5 is not a comprehensive replacement for Flash. Flash is not just video, and it does a lot of things HTML5 cannot. Even if HTML5 is universally adopted, it is most likely that it will coexist with Flash for the foreseeable future.

I can reluctantly put up with the lack of Flash on the iPhone, but wouldn't put up with a crippled browser on a device will I would use extensively to browse the web.

Just like if my new 27" iMac didn't do Flash, I would load Windows 7 on it (even though I like OS X better), or if I could not do so, I would have purchased something else (even though I really, really love the iMac).

[kjk]

Originally Posted by scottjl

Considering it isn't even available for preorder how can one say buyers are or aren't convinced? No one has it in their hands. One important thing this survey ignores is the fact that Apple has over 250 stores out there, they are counting on people walking in, checking the iPad out, and walking out with one, regardless of what they answer on a poll today.

Yes, I'm guessing the iPad demoes extremely well in real life...I'm now wondering how they are going to handle launch day. For the iPhone, you couldn't even get in the stores unless you were buying..and you couldn't really spend hands on time with it...people just waited in line and bought and bought...I wonder if the iPad will generate anything close to that craziness (and fun).