Speculate on the Future of Publishing

[jaxx6166]

I'm the farthest thing from an expert. I'm not a paid published author. I'm not an editor. I don't have my own company. I'm just a consumer with a credit card.

So, this is my opinion. And you all can take my statements with a grain of salt. =)

But, I've been thinking for a while now on the future of the industry. I think it's in turmoil. The big houses in NY are confused. They're trying to come up with a way to save their bottom line and somehow keep up with the Joneses. Digital distribution is gaining ground. Print on Demand is getting a bit of a market share. And it's getting even more as the days go by. We've got Smashwords and Feedbooks. LuLu and CreateSpace.

It's getting so easy to get your work out there. We're going through an almost new renaissance. Sure, there's a lot of crap out there. A LOT of crap. But, for every three hundred schmucks with a typewriter, we get one JC Hutchins, Scott Siegler, or Jeremy Robinson.

JC Hutchins was an author who was turned down by just about every publishing house. They didn't want to hear his story. So, he took to the internet. He started podcasting. His podcast novel (7th Son) was downloaded and listened to so damn many times that the publishers decided they needed a piece of the pie. So, St. Martin's offers him a publishing contract.

But what's changed since he submitted the first time? Nothing.

Jeremy Robinson self published his book The Didymus Chronicles thru LuLu. He is still one of the biggest successes that the store has seen. I'm pretty sure he was another repeat denial. Now, he's got a 3 book deal, including a reprint MMPB of Didymus.

Independent bookstores and publishers are springing up all over teh interwebs. New book critics are taking the blogosphere by storm. Just look through this forum for all the new and great indies we have floating around.

I think that the next five years will be very, very interesting. Especially with the increased use of digital readers and the many more that are coming out soon. CES was pretty much swamped with new digital readers.

Everyone's trying to get a piece of the pie. Some do an excellent job (Baen) others are kind of pussyfooting around (Harper Collins)

But, I don't think I could be more grateful that some of the big publishers are screwing around. With every release they delay digitally, several more indies reach out to fill the void. We have publishers like Pyr, Riadin, Wild Child, Apex, Bear Mountain, and Neil's publishing house among several others..

We're kind of a niche market. I think that the future of publishing houses will be just like what we are seeing now. We'll see people like Neil posting and letting us know what's up. Communication is key. I think in the future, we'll see more and more authors posting on forums and blogging. I think that given time, we may see the blogosphere gain more credibility and be comparable in New York Book Review.

I know I consult Pat's Fantasy Hotlist and A Dribble of Ink almost every day to find new things to read. It's amazing.

I think that the greed of the bigger houses and companies will result in a crazy new future.

If I get the publishing bug, I know where I want to be. And it's not at Random House. =)


And it's not just publishing. How many of you still buy and play the crap Wizards of the Coast puts out? How many of you go thru DriveThruRPG or use the new open source gaming system. How many of you buy computer games to play from a big house? How many get your stuff thru Steam or Apple?

Same with iTunes. While, I still purchase the majority of signed big name bands, I've discovered more and more indie artists through their webpages, social networking sites, or satellite radio.

Case in point: Hollywood Undead, who got the majority of their following through networking in Myspace.

Video games: Braid, and Machinarium. Both were indie releases that went on to win media awards.

Prepare for the digital revolution.

Anyone else have any thoughts on the future?

[Moejoe]

My predicition is short and sweet, and it's based mainly upon what I see and what I believe is the only option in the future.

Anybody; publisher, independent, collective or what-have-you that continues to charge set prices, or any price at all will be dead in the market place within 5 years. The rules of object=price are gone, and they're never coming back. It's all going to be good will and community, and that's the bottom line. That's what the internet does best. Good will and community. Writers will have to work ten times as hard, do everything for themselves and still bite the bullet and give it all away for free in the hopes that somewhere down the line their hard work is rewarded either monetarily or in kind.

This isn't a fanciful notion, it's not even a philosophical notion, it's merely practical. When you can get the cow and the milk for free, who the f**k would pay for a milkman?

[jaxx6166]

That's a terrifying reality for those that make a living writing. =)

Poor Dan Brown.

[jaxx6166]

Out of curiosity - does anyone know how artists in the 1600 - 1800's made a living? I don't mean just the Jane Austens and Emily Brontes. I'm talking about the Van Goghs and the Georgia O'Keefes as well.

[ficbot]

Originally Posted by jaxx6166

Out of curiosity - does anyone know how artists in the 1600 - 1800's made a living? I don't mean just the Jane Austens and Emily Brontes. I'm talking about the Van Goghs and the Georgia O'Keefes as well.

Patronage. They were the kept person of some royal somebody.

I think the role of the publishing house will diminish substantially and what we will see is the rise of the educated critic---in other words, some blogger or reviewer of influence (or several) will become the Oprah(s) of the internet book world and people will increasingly rely on them to filter through the boggy mass of the great internet Slush Pile and lead them to the good stuff. Things like Amazon ranking or some other rating system will be very important.

I think we will also increasingly see authors make less money from the actual book and more money from ancillary deals (art work related to the book, syndicating it as a blog or comic strip and making money off the advertising). I think the next big internet publishing success story, following the Scott Sigler Podcasts His Way to a Book Deal thing, will be the author who releases the book under a 'the book is free but the movie rights cost 5 million dollars' type of deal and actually gets a taker.

Oh, and before you bemoan the death of art or whatever, remember that Shakespeare made the bulk of his money through a cut of the ticket proceeds for the plays he staged, not through actual bound paper copies

[Moejoe]

Originally Posted by jaxx6166

That's a terrifying reality for those that make a living writing. =)

Poor Dan Brown.

He's only got fifty kajillion in the bank by writing absolute tripe. Poor indeed.

[Moejoe]

Originally Posted by ficbot

Patronage. They were the kept person of some royal somebody.

I think the role of the publishing house will diminish substantially and what we will see is the rise of the educated critic---in other words, some blogger or reviewer of influence (or several) will become the Oprah(s) of the internet book world and people will increasingly rely on them to filter through the boggy mass of the great internet Slush Pile and lead them to the good stuff. Things like Amazon ranking or some other rating system will be very important.

I think we will also increasingly see authors make less money from the actual book and more money from ancillary deals (art work related to the book, syndicating it as a blog or comic strip and making money off the advertising). I think the next big internet publishing success story, following the Scott Sigler Podcasts His Way to a Book Deal thing, will be the author who releases the book under a 'the book is free but the movie rights cost 5 million dollars' type of deal and actually gets a taker.

Oh, and before you bemoan the death of art or whatever, remember that Shakespeare made the bulk of his money through a cut of the ticket proceeds for the plays he staged, not through actual bound paper copies

I'd have to agree on all your points. I'm hoping that there will be a glut of writers that come along in the next year all hoping to be the next 'Dan Brown' by publishing their rot and charging a fixed price. And then I'm hoping these same folks will piss off when there's no money to be made, leaving me with passionate, dedicated writers to read and support

[jaxx6166]

Unfortunately, there are a glut of them out there now. Gah. I wish they would go away. "The Lost Constitution", "Atlantis Code", that girl that wrote about her grandfather being Dracula. (*EDIT* The Historian by Elizabeth Kostova)

That last one actually got herself a 20/20 special before she fizzled out into the aether.

Ficbot - I love your future. Absolutely love it.

And I had no clue about them being royal lapdogs. Interesting, but it would make sense.

[Moejoe]

Originally Posted by jaxx6166

Unfortunately, there are a glut of them out there now. Gah. I wish they would go away. "The Lost Constitution", "Atlantis Code", that girl that wrote about her grandfather being Dracula.

That last one actually got herself a 20/20 special before she fizzled out into the aether.

Ficbot - I love your future. Absolutely love it.

And I had no clue about them being royal lapdogs. Interesting, but it would make sense.

Ficbot, I love your look into the future.

Of all the new writers I read last year, the only good ones were the ones who weren't charging for their work. Who weren't following a pattern set down in stone by the publishers. Moxie, Small Stories, Nick Name, are artists (I'm not, I'm a writer) they're playing with form and story and pushing boundaries. And like I've said before, I don't push boundaries, I push words. So for me, the words are the end result and everything else is just at the edge of my peripheral vision

[jaxx6166]

How do you do it, anyway? =P

I'd kill for your completion rate. Finishing Nano was a struggle with reality. I'd sit down and then the world would end.

I tried to devote my four days off to putting words on paper. Then reality set in. Kitty litter needed changing, girlfriend needed hugs, bills needed paying....bah!!!!

At best I would complete one book a year. Or three short stories in a good six months.

Right now, I should be writing, but I'm distracting myself with forum posting.

But, this may be a topic for another thread.

[Moejoe]

Originally Posted by jaxx6166

How do you do it, anyway? =P

I'd kill for your completion rate. Finishing Nano was a struggle with reality. I'd sit down and then the world would end.

I tried to devote my four days off to putting words on paper. Then reality set in. Kitty litter needed changing, girlfriend needed hugs, bills needed paying....bah!!!!

At best I would complete one book a year. Or three short stories in a good six months.

Right now, I should be writing, but I'm distracting myself with forum posting.

15 minute timed sessions, that's how

Get a timer. Set it for 15 minutes. Then write. Don't stop writing until the timer goes off. You're not allowed to think, only write. You can't do anything else but type.

I get anywhere from 1k to 1.5k unedited words out of those sessions. I grab anywhere from 1 - 20 sessions a day, depending on how busy I am. I write mon-fri, and I edit sat/sun (I never write on a Sunday).

I used to do 3-4 hours on a night, and then i realised I was only actually writing for about 40 minutes out of that, the rest was spent twiddling my thumbs, and a lot of it wasn't any good. The faster I write, the better I think, the more honest the words are.

[jaxx6166]

Originally Posted by Moejoe

Get a timer. Set it for 15 minutes. Then write. Don't stop writing until the timer goes off. You're not allowed to think, only write. You can't do anything else but type.

I get anywhere from 1k to 1.5k unedited words out of those sessions. I grab anywhere from 1 - 20 sessions a day, depending on how busy I am. I write mon-fri, and I edit sat/sun (I never write on a Sunday).

1500 a day or 1500 per 15 minutes? The former is about my average. The latter is super human.

[Moejoe]

Originally Posted by jaxx6166

1500 a day or 1500 per 15 minutes? The former is about my average. The latter is super human.

That's the very top per 15min session, I'm really blazing when that happens. It usually bottoms out at around 1,000 words per 15 minute session. The story I wrote last night, The Emily Dickinson Drawers took about 40mins and is just over 3,000 words. Thing is, it might now take me a week to edit. But as Hemmingway said - all first drafts are shit - so why take forever to write the first draft? Get the words down as quick as possible and then move on. Enjoy it, it's fun!

[jaxx6166]

Well, boils and ghouls. Today, we learned that MoeJoe is superhuman. =)

I actually read Elmore Leonard's writing book today and found it hilarious. Especially his thoughts on Hemingway.

I may just try this tomorrow. Do you do your Finch stories in this timeframe too? I don't imagine there's much plotting figured out beforehand. But, plotting can just be a huge waste of time. I suck at math, but that works out to what? 22000 words a day. God, I'd love to see one of your drafts pre-editing.

I think I edited out about 40 chapters from Beyond the Black that were plotted out. Yeah. They never happened. Never were written.

[Moejoe]

Originally Posted by jaxx6166

Well, boils and ghouls. Today, we learned that MoeJoe is superhuman. =)

I actually read Elmore Leonard's writing book today and found it hilarious. Especially his thoughts on Hemingway.

I may just try this tomorrow. Do you do your Finch stories in this timeframe too? I don't imagine there's much plotting figured out beforehand. But, plotting can just be a huge waste of time. I suck at math, but that works out to what? 22000 words a day. God, I'd love to see one of your drafts pre-editing.

I think I edited out about 40 chapters from Beyond the Black that were plotted out. Yeah. They never happened. Never were written.

I never plot, it's the most boring thing ever, for me there's no adventure in writing if I know what's going to happen, I may as well be doing accountancy in my spare time. I don't do research; if I don't know it when I'm writing, I'm never going to know it, besides all that, research in novels bores the hell out of me and I skip it. I have a ridiculous amount of stories / novels / plays / screenplays poems and other assorted things on the go at any one time, it's really quite stupid.

I have a rule of thumb when working on any project. 1 day = 10k or 1-2 short stories. I really don't want to be working on any one project more than 10 days, or any short story draft more than a day.

The most I've ever done in 1 day is 30,000 unedited words (some of them were quite decent too).

The least I've ever done was 2 words - The End (That was actually the title of the story)

I try to write every day, but I don't, it's just stupid to think that anybody can write every day what with everything else going on in the world, and you know, I love to watch movies, and sometimes sleep. Besides, this isn't a job, its a passion, and passion doesn't keep schedules (unless you're in Mother Russia).