Will smartphones dominate pdas and laptops?

Bob Russell · 08-02-2006, 10:23 PM

Linux Devices asks the question "When will smartphones replace PDAs, laptops?" The article is quite interesting, and they point out that usability obstacles still remain. Those will need to be overcome to a degree before we see an explosion of smartphones used for the typical sorts of pda and laptop activities.

Personally, unless we include a separate "mini terminal" to go with the smartphone, I don't see a typical smartphone form factor replacing a large number of laptops. Many pdas might be replaced, but not all. So the real question might be "When will smartphones dominate pdas and laptops in the marketplace?"

I think that in about 5-10 years when we look back at this question, we will realize that our context and language was insufficient. There will be new categories of device, and some larger devices or small foldable/rollable/multipart devices will come onto the market with phone capabilities. At some point will be a little hard to know what to call a smartphone as opposed to a handheld computer with phone capabilities.

We might even end up with a base computing unit in our pocket or purse or briefcase, accessed with a small and light clamshell with various options for keyboard and display. Sort of a local client server system all on your person, and ultimately connected to the internet also. That would even allow people to potentially leave the terminal pieces of different form factors all over the office and home for different people to use as desired. You get to keep your main computing platform personal (as opposed to trusting the web with all your applications and data). And yet you can still move portions of what you do to the web as appropriate, e.g. for backup or shared activities or when massive horsepower or data storage capabilities are needed.

But that is only one vision of a possible mobile future that I have created out of my imagination. There are many more possibilities that we have yet to imagine. And I'd bet that most scenarios are going to look a bit different than the sort of picture we currently have in our head when we think of smartphones. It might just be a moot point to talk about smartphone dominance if other form factors take over in the future.

As I always say about the future of mobile computing... "time will tell!"

TadW · 08-03-2006, 10:47 AM

My question: Why? Why would anyone want to replace his notebook with a smartphone? Assuming such could be possible is like comparing apples and oranges. Sure, you could shift certain tasks from the notebook to your smartphone today or tomorrow, but that doesn't imply that the notebook would become obsolete.

The problem with the continuing trend in technology toward miniaturization is that there is a physical limit when shrinkings things must become disadvantageous.

Laurens · 08-03-2006, 11:12 AM

I like the idea of a mobile phone as a "base" computing unit that can be plugged into a workstation or monitor and paired to a wirelesss keyboard and mouse so as to offer a desktop computing solution.

Snappy! · 08-03-2006, 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Laurens

I like the idea of a mobile phone as a "base" computing unit that can be plugged into a workstation or monitor and paired to a wirelesss keyboard and mouse so as to offer a desktop computing solution.

I like that as well ... it's called an OQO.

... except that its not priced as a mobile phone right now. In fact, it's tagged at mid-high range notebook pricing.

I would also consider getting a UMPC, if only (1) It's cheaper ($500) (2) I had not just gotten a notebook and (3) It's battery life is more like a good phone batt life of 5hrs or more and not like a notebook's 2~3hrs. The same would apply to such a phone, when it exist.

Antoine of MMM · 08-03-2006, 01:12 PM

HOnestly speaking, as a web deisgner and mobile consultant, I would prefer working from my Treo all the time and would do it more if it were easy to dock it into the desktop and then continue to use it there (plus a nice HD for archiving and storage). With Dragon Edit I really do have the ability to do some sites quite easily (such as this one: http://antoinerjwright.com/portfolio/LOH/design1.htm) and if I had a better browser at my disposal, then I would do even more.

Come to think of it, the PalmOS could do this considering how it can read multiple memory cards (Tapwave and Sony did it first, and the T5 did it as well).

But the question of usability is a big thing. Would someone want to, yes. But just because you can doesnt always make it the best idea. There just needs to be different form factors for everyone, but a lot better integration of the software to make the solutions work best for everyone.

(rushed response, my ladi is waiting

)

Laurens · 08-03-2006, 01:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Snappy!

I like that as well ... it's called an OQO.

... except that its not priced as a mobile phone right now. In fact, it's tagged at mid-high range notebook pricing.

AFAIK the OQO doesn't have phone functionality or does it? Even so, what I was thinking of should be the size of of small mobile phone. I doubt such a device is technically possible (let alone economically viable) right now, though.

branko · 08-03-2006, 05:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bob Russell

will [...]?

Yes.

Nevertheless, the future that is obvious, isn't always. The mobile phone has brought us closer to the Star Trek communicator. But unlike the mobile phone, the communicator has no built-in camera, and whenever the people living in the Star Trek future have to make a snap-shot, they carry around these completely unwieldy devices.

yvanleterrible · 08-03-2006, 09:08 PM

I cringe on the thought of an $1,800.00 UMPC or $600.00 phone crashing to the ground.

Miniaturization is great but it's getting to a point where the illegibility of these new tools slows every operation more and more. Some times you need to see a complete sentence to perform a software task. Backing pages to get the whole sentence is ridiculous. The smallest size to be practical is the one of the Iliad. That would be comfy for anyone.

An all in one tool is helpful but never better than mutiple specialised tools. Believe a cabinetmaker.

A remote acces to computing power would be cheaper. What if instead of carrying computing power we only had some kind of neuro optical device, wave connected to a remote station, or a digital avatar following actions or searches on the web, using the computer you have elsewhere, or on some company's machines ?
Software developers are getting us there fast. They are thinking that rather than having us buy their software, they will have us use it directly on their server, and bill us for each use. How about music, books and movies ? That will follow rather quickly I believe and so will customers, just like the ones who lease cars.
Sorry I just got ahead of myself and the subject again !

08-02-2006, 10:23 PM	#1
Bob Russell Recovering Gadget Addict Posts: 5,381 Karma: 676161 Join Date: May 2004 Location: Pittsburgh, PA Device: iPad	Will smartphones dominate pdas and laptops? Linux Devices asks the question "When will smartphones replace PDAs, laptops?" The article is quite interesting, and they point out that usability obstacles still remain. Those will need to be overcome to a degree before we see an explosion of smartphones used for the typical sorts of pda and laptop activities. Personally, unless we include a separate "mini terminal" to go with the smartphone, I don't see a typical smartphone form factor replacing a large number of laptops. Many pdas might be replaced, but not all. So the real question might be "When will smartphones dominate pdas and laptops in the marketplace?" I think that in about 5-10 years when we look back at this question, we will realize that our context and language was insufficient. There will be new categories of device, and some larger devices or small foldable/rollable/multipart devices will come onto the market with phone capabilities. At some point will be a little hard to know what to call a smartphone as opposed to a handheld computer with phone capabilities. We might even end up with a base computing unit in our pocket or purse or briefcase, accessed with a small and light clamshell with various options for keyboard and display. Sort of a local client server system all on your person, and ultimately connected to the internet also. That would even allow people to potentially leave the terminal pieces of different form factors all over the office and home for different people to use as desired. You get to keep your main computing platform personal (as opposed to trusting the web with all your applications and data). And yet you can still move portions of what you do to the web as appropriate, e.g. for backup or shared activities or when massive horsepower or data storage capabilities are needed. But that is only one vision of a possible mobile future that I have created out of my imagination. There are many more possibilities that we have yet to imagine. And I'd bet that most scenarios are going to look a bit different than the sort of picture we currently have in our head when we think of smartphones. It might just be a moot point to talk about smartphone dominance if other form factors take over in the future. As I always say about the future of mobile computing... "time will tell!"

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08-03-2006, 10:47 AM	#2
TadW Uebermensch Posts: 2,583 Karma: 1094606 Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Italy Device: Kindle	My question: Why? Why would anyone want to replace his notebook with a smartphone? Assuming such could be possible is like comparing apples and oranges. Sure, you could shift certain tasks from the notebook to your smartphone today or tomorrow, but that doesn't imply that the notebook would become obsolete. The problem with the continuing trend in technology toward miniaturization is that there is a physical limit when shrinkings things must become disadvantageous.

08-03-2006, 11:12 AM	#3
Laurens Jah Blessed Posts: 1,295 Karma: 1373 Join Date: Apr 2003 Location: The Netherlands Device: iPod Touch	I like the idea of a mobile phone as a "base" computing unit that can be plugged into a workstation or monitor and paired to a wirelesss keyboard and mouse so as to offer a desktop computing solution.

08-03-2006, 01:12 PM	#5
Antoine of MMM Mobile Ministry Magazine Posts: 119 Karma: 4507 Join Date: May 2005 Location: Charlotte, NC Device: Nokia N75/N800 Internet Tablet	HOnestly speaking, as a web deisgner and mobile consultant, I would prefer working from my Treo all the time and would do it more if it were easy to dock it into the desktop and then continue to use it there (plus a nice HD for archiving and storage). With Dragon Edit I really do have the ability to do some sites quite easily (such as this one: http://antoinerjwright.com/portfolio/LOH/design1.htm) and if I had a better browser at my disposal, then I would do even more. Come to think of it, the PalmOS could do this considering how it can read multiple memory cards (Tapwave and Sony did it first, and the T5 did it as well). But the question of usability is a big thing. Would someone want to, yes. But just because you can doesnt always make it the best idea. There just needs to be different form factors for everyone, but a lot better integration of the software to make the solutions work best for everyone. (rushed response, my ladi is waiting )

08-03-2006, 09:08 PM	#8
yvanleterrible Reborn Paper User Posts: 8,616 Karma: 15446734 Join Date: May 2006 Location: Que Nada Device: iPhone8, iPad Air	I cringe on the thought of an $1,800.00 UMPC or $600.00 phone crashing to the ground. Miniaturization is great but it's getting to a point where the illegibility of these new tools slows every operation more and more. Some times you need to see a complete sentence to perform a software task. Backing pages to get the whole sentence is ridiculous. The smallest size to be practical is the one of the Iliad. That would be comfy for anyone. An all in one tool is helpful but never better than mutiple specialised tools. Believe a cabinetmaker. A remote acces to computing power would be cheaper. What if instead of carrying computing power we only had some kind of neuro optical device, wave connected to a remote station, or a digital avatar following actions or searches on the web, using the computer you have elsewhere, or on some company's machines ? Software developers are getting us there fast. They are thinking that rather than having us buy their software, they will have us use it directly on their server, and bill us for each use. How about music, books and movies ? That will follow rather quickly I believe and so will customers, just like the ones who lease cars. Sorry I just got ahead of myself and the subject again !

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