PW: New release sales down, ebooks to blame

[fjtorres]

http://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/b...04e5-304500337

No adult fiction title released in the January-through-June period managed to make the top 20 print bestsellers list in the first half of the year. In the first six months of 2015, two novels released that year, The Girl on the Train and Grey, held the first and third spots, respectively, on the print list and were #1 and #2 on the Amazon Top 20 Kindle E-books List.

Stephen King’s End of Watch, for example, was released late in June and is still likely to put up solid numbers. Even so, End of Watch sold about 75,000 copies in its first week on sale—a good figure, but not close to the 354,0000 copies Grey sold last June, when it first hit bookstore shelves. Since the advent of e-books, gone are the days when franchise authors can regularly post huge opening-week sales of print books. And unlike last year, when Girl on the Train and Grey were both selling well in print and digital, the two lists in 2016 were very different.

Over the first six months in 2016, only three books appeared on both the Amazon top-20 e-book list and the BookScan top-20 print book list (The Girl on the Train, Me Before You, and When Breathe Becomes Air). In the first half of 2015, six books hit both lists. This year, the Amazon e-book list was led by The Girl in the Ice by Robert Bryndza, published by U.K. digital-first publisher Bookouture. Bookouture had two other titles on the Amazon list, and the self-published The Shade of Vampire by Bella Forrest was #7.

Without a new book getting attention in both print and digital formats, it is hard to build a lot of momentum and word-of-mouth publicity, some industry insiders said. “Buzz happens, but less so,” said Alie Hess, a buyer at Brookline Booksmith in Brookline, Mass. “Girl on the Train and All the Light We Cannot See were the last ones.”

Much more at the source, including this table:

First-Week Print Sales of Top-Selling frontlist Adult Fiction January–June 2016

Title Author Publisher Pub. Date Units Sales
End of Watch Stephen King Scribner June 7 75,000
15th Affair Patterson/Paetro. Little, Brown May 8 66,000
One with You Sylvia Day St. Martin’s April 5 61,000
The Last Mile David Baldacci Grand Central April 24 57,000
Bay of Sighs Nora Roberts Berkley June 14 51,000

If that is how King, Patterson, and Roberts are doing, the smaller fish have to be hurting.

Signature quote:

Neither the booksellers nor publishers interviewed were prepared to say whether the dearth of new frontlist blockbusters is an aberration or the start of a larger trend. “It is curious,” said Stan Hynds, buyer at Northshire Bookstore. “I have no idea if this is a thing or an anomaly.”

[Cinisajoy]

Do you have the ebook figures?
It may not be as dire as PW is making it out to be.

[fjtorres]

Oh, I expect it is exactly as they report it.
Might be worse.
Remember that all the BPHs are reporting actual revenue shortfalls and they have stopped breaking out ebook sales numbers, resorting to lumping ebook and audiobook sales.

I also think they have (more or less) correctly diagnosed what is going on: the big clue being the difference between the print sales list and the ebook sales list.

Factor in the Agency Part Deux price hike and the fact that ebooks are always in print...

It's the new normal phasing in, I think.

[Phogg]

Originally Posted by fjtorres

Oh, I expect it is exactly as they report it.
Might be worse.
Remember that all the BPHs are reporting actual revenue shortfalls and they have stopped breaking out ebook sales numbers, resorting to lumping ebook and audiobook sales.

I also think they have (more or less) correctly diagnosed what is going on: the big clue being the difference between the print sales list and the ebook sales list.

Factor in the Agency Part Deux price hike and the fact that ebooks are always in print...

It's the new normal phasing in, I think.

And it follows a path parallel to the changes that happened when digital files changed the music business.
As many people predicted it would.

[PurpleStar]

End of Watch is like $17.99 A ridiculous price. Maybe that has something to do with low sales.

[JSWolf]

Originally Posted by PurpleStar

End of Watch is like $17.99 A ridiculous price. Maybe that has something to do with low sales.

End of Watch at Amazon.com.

Kindle: $14.99
Hardcover: $18.00
Paperback: $10.27 (due March 28, 2017)
Mass market paperback $9.99 (due March 28, 2017)

So you have a silly price for the Kindle version and people who read on a Kindle don't usually buy hardcovers are more money. So of course sales are going to tank. Publishers are too stupid to realize that agency doesn't work. Sales are showing that agency is failing. So why not go back to real prices. I do think that End of Watch would sell better if the Kindle version was $9.99 and the hardcover $14.99. But the MMPB is also a stupid price. People are used to $7.99 to MMPB, not $9.99. The MMPB should be $7.99 and the Paperback $9.99. Then the eBook can drop to $7.99 on March 28, 2017.

[PurpleStar]

Originally Posted by JSWolf

End of Watch at Amazon.com.

Kindle: $14.99
Hardcover: $18.00
Paperback: $10.27 (due March 28, 2017)
Mass market paperback $9.99 (due March 28, 2017)

So you have a silly price for the Kindle version and people who read on a Kindle don't usually buy hardcovers are more money. So of course sales are going to tank. Publishers are too stupid to realize that agency doesn't work. Saless are showing that agency is failing. So why not go back to real prices. I do think that End of Watch would sell better if the Kindle version mwas $9.99 and the hardcover $14.99. But the MMPB is also a stupid price. People are used to $7.99 to MMPB, not $9.99. The MMPB should be $7.99 and the Paperback $9.99. Then the eBook can drop to $7.99 on March 28, 2017.

$17.99 is the Canadian price. $14.99 is just as silly.

I stopped buying a lot of e-books from big name expensive authors like that and get cheaper alternatives instead. Like I'm not paying $15 for a Nora Roberts book when I can get 3 or 4 books from Harlequin for the same price and they're just as good.

[JSWolf]

I go with Overdrive to try to get some of this books I'd like to read. Free is much nicer than $14.99. But if I was buying, I would not be buying at $14.99. This is why sales are down. Prices like this are not worth it.

[PurpleStar]

Originally Posted by JSWolf

I go with Overdrive to try to get some of this books I'd like to read. Free is much nicer than $14.99. But if I was buying, I would not be buying at $14.99. This is why sales are down. Prices like this are not worth it.

Yup, that's the way to go. Except the wait lists are long so that's where the cheaper books come in.

[JSWolf]

Originally Posted by PurpleStar

Yup, that's the way to go. Except the wait lists are long so that's where the cheaper books come in.

I check the library for new eBooks quite often so I can get in line early enough. Besides, I get enough books from OD that I can afford to wait.

[bgalbrecht]

The problem is that the BPHs are relying on their top X authors to make all their profits, and if their sales are a bit low, the BPHs seem to think that raising the prices will make up for it. It's true that authors are not entirely fungible, someone who only reads Nora Roberts is probably not going to switch to James Patterson, or Stephen King, or vice-versa, but if a reader's books are priced out of the reader's price range, they'll just wait for the price to drop or buy used. I already have a lifetime's worth of a TBR list, (well, everyone does if they're willing to read a lot of free PD ebooks), so I'm very often willing to wait for a sale on authors I like. Thank goodness for all the ebook sales emails and forums like this.

[Josieb1]

In the UK Barbara Erskine's new book Sleepers Castle is £9.99 and £8 for the Hardback. I'm not buying a paper copy, I haven't read a paper book since 2007. I'm waiting for the ebook to drop to the same price as the rest of her ebooks which is £4.99, there is no author out there I'd pay £10 for an ebook.

Even my normal diet of MM Romance titles are now hovering anywhere from £5.28 to £6.45 a new release, unless it's a book I desperately want I'm waiting for price reductions. I used to regularly spread upwards of £50 a month on ebooks but that has to stop as I'm being made redundant. I have a pile of books to keep me going for years.

[AnemicOak]

Originally Posted by Josieb1

In the UK Barbara Erskine's new book Sleepers Castle is £9.99 and £8 for the Hardback. I'm not buying a paper copy, I haven't read a paper book since 2007. I'm waiting for the ebook to drop to the same price as the rest of her ebooks which is £4.99, there is no author out there I'd pay £10 for an ebook.

The eBook is $19.99 here in the US and the paper can only be had as an import. Even with the paper being an import it can be had slightly cheaper ($13.65 + $3.99 s&h from the UK) than the eBook.

[JSWolf]

Originally Posted by Josieb1

In the UK Barbara Erskine's new book Sleepers Castle is £9.99 and £8 for the Hardback. I'm not buying a paper copy, I haven't read a paper book since 2007. I'm waiting for the ebook to drop to the same price as the rest of her ebooks which is £4.99, there is no author out there I'd pay £10 for an ebook.

Even my normal diet of MM Romance titles are now hovering anywhere from £5.28 to £6.45 a new release, unless it's a book I desperately want I'm waiting for price reductions. I used to regularly spread upwards of £50 a month on ebooks but that has to stop as I'm being made redundant. I have a pile of books to keep me going for years.

Here's what you do. You go to Kobo for a trip to India. You buy Sleepers Castle there. You use the code 20anniversary to get a discount. The the price is about £6.23 not including any out of country credit card charges which will still be cheaper than £9.99.

[fjtorres]

Originally Posted by bgalbrecht

The problem is that the BPHs are relying on their top X authors to make all their profits, and if their sales are a bit low, the BPHs seem to think that raising the prices will make up for it. It's true that authors are not entirely fungible, someone who only reads Nora Roberts is probably not going to switch to James Patterson, or Stephen King, or vice-versa, but if a reader's books are priced out of the reader's price range, they'll just wait for the price to drop or buy used. I already have a lifetime's worth of a TBR list, (well, everyone does if they're willing to read a lot of free PD ebooks), so I'm very often willing to wait for a sale on authors I like. Thank goodness for all the ebook sales emails and forums like this.

I think their problem is quite a bit bigger than just pricing.

You are right that they depend heavily on their "tent-pole", big name author releases to meet their financial targets. And, yes, they keep jacking up their prices because they believe their fans will buy them anyway. Which is probably true: the fans will probably still the book...eventually...

But what is hurting them is the fans aren't buying it right after release.
And that is killing their buzz.

The way the (true) *fiction* bestsellers become bestsellers is a two-step process:

1- the fans of the author (or avid readers) preorder a book or buy it as soon as it's released. This seeds the market as reviews and word of mouth quickly grows and the buzz builds. This reassures the BPHs and the bookstores that the book isn't a misfire and *then* they start promoting it.

2- the combination of buzz and push eventually draws the attention of casual readers. Those folks may only buy a couple books a year, often to gift instead of to read, and while they are always late to join the bandwagon they are legion. Once people start buying a popular book it starts selling big, solely because it is selling big. It's a feedback loop. Kinda like the celebrities who are famous for being famous. (No names needed, right?)

As the corporate publishers took over and the number of new releases increased, the time a book remained readily available decreased. The Randy Penguin alone puts out over 15,000 new releases a year. And shelf space today is way down from a decade ago. Borders alone wiped out 25% and the closures and reductions of book space at B&N have added another big drop. Maybe 10% if anecdotal reports hold true. Smaller chains and folding Indies, declining book space at department stores...

It all lead to what KKR calls the fresh produce model: New releases get stocked for a couple of months and what hasn't moved gets returned. For big name and/or projected "bestsellers" the publishers buy front table promotional placement...for a limited time. After that, a new wave of fresh releases take over.

So it's not just that the publishers rely on the big name authors to move a lot of books, they need them to move a lot of books *fast*.

This process has worked for decades.

Now, back in the olden days before online and before ebooks, books were not available forever. Not easily. Just like with network TV, you either caught it upon release or you risk missing out. There was no guarantee a show would be repeated or a book would get a second printing.

Fans and avid readers learned to buy on sight, even if they knew they couldn't read it right away. The practice continued when we got ebook readers and we loaded them up with PD, freebies, backlist and new releases. That is how we all ended up with years-long TBR lists, right?

But a lot of us, maybe most, no longer buy that way. A few favored authors get picked immediately but most everything else gets wishlisted or backburnered. Stockpiling is going away.
Since ebooks are expected to be available forever, less and less of us are spending today's money on tomorrow's reads. Instead, we're moving to a just-in-time, buy and read model.

Now, this alone shouldn't be cutting King/Patterson/Roberts sales in half. Not even factoring in an election year.

Publishers have raised new release prices by a lot, both in print and in digital. And they are windowing formats more.
And with the added information flow of the internet, readers now know that today's $28 hardback can be had online for $18 today, $11 in trade paperback next March, and $7 next spring as a remaindered hardcover. Or, cheaper than all that, used. Or free from a library.

These days waiting to buy doesn't mean you'll miss out--it means you pay less and can buy other books.

The system depends on readers buying early but it *rewards* them for waiting.
Avid readers have noticed and many (most?) have changed their behavior.

Thing is, casual readers *haven't* changed their behavior. They still wait for the buzz to call their attention to a book. And as even the publishing trade press admits, there is no buzz. No buzz, no bandwagon. And so the big name sellers find their months of preorders and launch week sales adding up to less than half their expected numbers. Take out the pre-order spikes and their second week and third week numbers will no doubt be even lower.

And the clock is ticking: front table payola runs out and a new wave of big name releases is coming.

As pointed out above, this has long been expected around here.

With online sales providing easy access to discounted and used books and ebooks providing an always-in-print, ever increasing catalog, new releases no longer compete for sales solely with other recent releases but with every other book available anywhere. Front list vs midlisters vs backlist.

Note that this is strictly a tradpub business model problem. Indies only factor in to the extent that they contribute to the availability of backlist and new midlisters material at sub-paperback prices. There is no need to get into Indie vs tradpub here...
...except that the rise of Indie, Inc prevents the corporate publishers from pulling a Disney: limiting the availability of their most desirable titles to a few years each decade and thus create artificial scarcity and an incentive to buy early. For publishers this is not an option because they don't actually own their content free and clear. They too only buy licenses. And their licenses only last as long as they offer the books for sale. Otherwise, the rights revert to the author who can sell them elsewhere. Or self-publish.

The PW piece suggests that the launch window, big name author, payola driven business model of the corporate publishers is approaching its end of life.

They need to think different, as somebody or other once (ungramatically) said.

Whole new world and new rules out there. And the new rules are catching up to them.

They do have options but none of them will preserve the status quo or their status.