GoodEReader Predictions for 2014

[Katsunami]

It's a bit old, but I haven't seen this post pop up around here. As 2014 has just started, it may still be worthy of a discussion:

GoodEReader predictions for 2014

1. E Ink Diversifies away from e-Readers : Confirmed
2. Barnes and Noble Suspends e-Reader Development: Probably confirmed
3. Reading on Tablets will decline in 2014 (more reading on phone): ?
4. eBooks will Decline in 2014 (resurgence of paper books): ?
5. Sony Abandons Consumer e-Readers: Confirmed (for USA)

It all seems to be doom and gloom. e-Ink in trouble, Barnes and Noble and Sony quitting, Tablets declining, e-books declining, with paper coming back into vogue again.

In short: e-reading was a hype, brought about by Amazon in 2007, and to be returned to a niche in the end of 2014.

What do you think will happen?

- If e-ink is about to die, will Amazon just buy it, and in doing so, practically kill all remaining competitors? (Kobo, Sony Europe, Bokeen, Boox, Pocketbook; I think those are the ones left, from biggest to smallest.)
- Will tablets start dying as of next year?
- Will the 5.x inch smartphone indeed be the reading device of choice in the next 5-6 years?
- Will paper and bookstores indeed see a resurgence?

[Katsunami]

My own thoughts:

I think it will be as it is the case with many markets in the digital realm. A new technology is created, and there are lots of companies that start out to offer it. Many companies will die, or taken over, in the end leaving one, maybe two very large players, with one or two niche players.

The following holds true for The Netherlands:

Most people who buy e-books buys them in English, and they don't buy them in The Netherlands.

For tablets, it's basically only the iPad and Samsung Tabs that are relevant. All the rest is fighting in the remaining 10% of the market.

For smartphones, it's the iPhone and Samsung Galaxy's that have ~90% of all profits and market penetration. Google Nexus is sold at cost, to increase Android market share. The rest is all fighting over the scraps, with HTC and, since some time, Huawei, at the top.

For e-readers, only the Kindle and Kobo really count, and we still have Sony. While it's possible to buy Bookeen and Pocketbooks over here in the Netherlands (and some Boox if you search hard), most people either get a Kobo, or import a Kindle through Amazon.com, or Amazon.de. Some get a Sony, and all the rest are basically unkonwn.

[Nate the great]

The first is so obvious that it doesn't qualify as a prediction; it's what E-ink has been doing since 2012.

The second prediction has not come true; B&N's intentions are still unknown. And as for the last prediction, the last I heard was that Sony still develops ebook readers. Just because they've stopped selling ebooks in the NA market doesn't mean they are giving up on ereaders.

As for reading on tablets declining, if smartphones have already achieved market saturation, and yet they aren't the leading reading device, why would that change?

And as for ebook sales declining, I have 2 words for you: Oyster and Scribd.

[Katsunami]

Subscription services? Never. Not for me, certainly not when requiring specific apps.

[pdurrant]

Originally Posted by Katsunami

1. E Ink Diversifies away from e-Readers : Confirmed
2. Barnes and Noble Suspends e-Reader Development: Probably confirmed
3. Reading on Tablets will decline in 2014 (more reading on phone): ?
4. eBooks will Decline in 2014 (resurgence of paper books): ?
5. Sony Abandons Consumer e-Readers: Confirmed (for USA)

1. Of course. They have always had other interests, and want to expand. It occurred to me just the other day that (plastic substrate) E-Ink displays would be splendid for train/bus seat reservations.

2. Could be. B&N seem to be in deep trouble, as I expect other paper book retailers to be in 2014 and 2015.

3. I suspect that more people will read on tablets,just because there will be more tablets around. But this is an uninteresting prediction from the point of view of the total ebook market.

4. ROFL! The rate of increase is certainly decreasing. that's only to be expects when ebooks are taking (in the US) 25-50% of the market. But I would be astounded if the ebook share of the market went down.

5. Could be. Sony have got themselves into trouble, it seems, and ereaders might be a division that gets the chop. Another uninteresting prediction from the point of view of the total ebook market.