Predict the date: 200,000 members

pdurrant · 12-31-2011, 09:14 AM

On the 31st December 2011, MobileRead welcomed its 150,000th member.

We are now very close to 200,000 members.

I want people to guess what date and time the 200,000th member will join, in three hour time slots, all GMT. ENTRIES ARE NOW CLOSED.

Good luck, everyone!

Here's a zoomed in graph on recent membership numbers, covering the six weeks from 1st February. I think it's clear that we will reach 200,000 members before 14th March. I will update the graph every day as far as possible. Guess early, and you won't have as much data. Guess late, and someone might already have grabbed your preferred time slot!

Entries:
2nd March

12:00-15:00 — JSWolf
15:00-18:00 — troll05
18:00-21:00 — Ekaros
21:00-24:00 — Hamlet53

3rd March

09:00-12:00 — pdurrant
12:00-15:00 — Bilbo1967
15:00-18:00 — Javed
18:00-21:00 — red_phoenix

4th March

18:00-21:00 — dreams

6th March

15:00-18:00 — vivaldirules

9th March

12:00-15:00 — WT Sharpe

15th March

15:00-18:00 — poohbear_nc
18:00-21:00 — maianhvk

NB No actual prize provided. Only the glory of getting it right.

The guesses for the date competition, closing date 31st October 2012:

Spoiler:

(Ref: predict the date for 40,000 members thread
predict the date for 150,000 members thread)

Hamlet53 · 12-31-2011, 04:04 PM

I well put in a guess of June 30, 2012.

Nyssa · 12-31-2011, 06:28 PM

I will predict August 29th 2012

The Terminator · 12-31-2011, 07:07 PM

I'll say June 20th.

wannabee · 01-01-2012, 12:52 AM

I'll go early as I think eReaders and tablets will be big Christmas gifts this year.
May 28th.

WT Sharpe · 01-01-2012, 02:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wannabee

I'll go early as I think eReaders and tablets will be big Christmas gifts this year.
May 28th.

I'm going to go even earlier. I'll say April the second.

pdurrant · 01-01-2012, 06:21 AM

I'm guessing 17th July, 2012

HomeInMyShoes · 01-02-2012, 09:32 AM

June 23rd, 2012.

74Cuda · 01-02-2012, 09:36 AM

July 10th 2012

afa · 01-03-2012, 07:20 AM

Since everyone is guessing early, I'm gonna go ahead and take the later bet...

I predict 18 September 2012.

WT Sharpe · 01-03-2012, 10:31 PM

Wow, dude—you're off the chart! (But you may be right.)

tilia · 01-06-2012, 03:30 PM

Hmm... I pick 29th July 2012.

wannabee · 01-11-2012, 06:54 AM

Oh oh! This might be where I need to start a membership campaign!

HomeInMyShoes · 01-12-2012, 08:36 AM

Looks like we're right on track for my guess.

JoelArnold · 01-13-2012, 11:01 AM

I'm going to say August 1, 2012. Give or take six months...

12-31-2011, 09:14 AM	#1
pdurrant The Grand Mouse 高貴的老鼠 Posts: 74,433 Karma: 318076944 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Norfolk, England Device: Kindle Oasis	Predict the date: 200,000 members On the 31st December 2011, MobileRead welcomed its 150,000th member. We are now very close to 200,000 members. I want people to guess what date and time the 200,000th member will join, in three hour time slots, all GMT. ENTRIES ARE NOW CLOSED. Good luck, everyone! Here's a zoomed in graph on recent membership numbers, covering the six weeks from 1st February. I think it's clear that we will reach 200,000 members before 14th March. I will update the graph every day as far as possible. Guess early, and you won't have as much data. Guess late, and someone might already have grabbed your preferred time slot! Entries: 2nd March 12:00-15:00 — JSWolf 15:00-18:00 — troll05 18:00-21:00 — Ekaros 21:00-24:00 — Hamlet53 3rd March 09:00-12:00 — pdurrant 12:00-15:00 — Bilbo1967 15:00-18:00 — Javed 18:00-21:00 — red_phoenix 4th March 18:00-21:00 — dreams 6th March 15:00-18:00 — vivaldirules 9th March 12:00-15:00 — WT Sharpe 15th March 15:00-18:00 — poohbear_nc 18:00-21:00 — maianhvk NB No actual prize provided. Only the glory of getting it right. The guesses for the date competition, closing date 31st October 2012: Spoiler: red_pheonix: 25th December Bilbo: 26th December Hamlet53, Prestidigitweeze: 27th December David Munch: 28th December Nyssa: 29th December WT Sharpe: 5th January pdurrant: 8th January HomeInMyShoes: 24th January Javed: 28th January dreams: 29th January vivaldirules: 17th February shenye: 28th February In the competition to guess the date of the 200,000th member, I declare that shenye is the winner* of the competition, as theirs is the only guess left that hasn't been proved wrong, and it looks certain to be the closest to the actual date. Congratulations, shenye! Previous predictions, made before the end of March 2011, were all wrong; mis-led by the much larger than usual number of new members around Christmas. Spoiler: WT Sharpe: 2nd April 2012 maianhvk: 26th May 2012 wannabee: 28th May 2012 The Terminator: 20th June 2012 HomeInMyShoes: 23rd June 2012 redbees: 28th June 2012 Hamlet53: 30th June 2012 red_pheonix: 3rd July 2012 74Cuda: 10th July 2012 pdurrant: 17th July 2012 tilia: 29th July 2012 JoelArnold: 1st August 2012 AnemicOak: 15th August 2012 Nyssa: 29th August 2012 afa: 18th September 2012 Bilbo1967: 5th October 2012 (Ref: predict the date for 40,000 members thread predict the date for 150,000 members thread) Attached Thumbnails Last edited by pdurrant; 03-01-2013 at 09:07 AM. Reason: updated graph, NEW COMPETITION

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12-31-2011, 04:04 PM	#2
Hamlet53 Nameless Being	I well put in a guess of June 30, 2012.

12-31-2011, 06:28 PM	#3
Nyssa Series Addict Posts: 6,180 Karma: 167189477 Join Date: Dec 2010 Location: Florida, USA Device: Kindle Paperwhite (2nd Gen)	I will predict August 29th 2012

12-31-2011, 07:07 PM	#4
The Terminator Retired Posts: 2,552 Karma: 37638420 Join Date: Nov 2010 Location: Vancouver Island Canada Device: Kobo Touch, Optimus One (2.3), Nexus 7 (4.2)	I'll say June 20th.

01-01-2012, 12:52 AM	#5
wannabee Media Bloke Posts: 2,382 Karma: 113956855 Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: NSW - Australia Device: iOS	I'll go early as I think eReaders and tablets will be big Christmas gifts this year. May 28th.

01-01-2012, 06:21 AM	#7
pdurrant The Grand Mouse 高貴的老鼠 Posts: 74,433 Karma: 318076944 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Norfolk, England Device: Kindle Oasis	I'm guessing 17th July, 2012

01-02-2012, 09:32 AM	#8
HomeInMyShoes Grand Sorcerer Posts: 19,226 Karma: 67780237 Join Date: Jul 2011 Device: none	June 23rd, 2012.

01-02-2012, 09:36 AM	#9
74Cuda MaxPuppy Rules Posts: 31,418 Karma: 31670648 Join Date: Nov 2011 Location: NW Oregon Device: Kindle Fire 8.9 HDX Kindle 3, Kindle Fire, Kindle Fire HD, Acer A200	July 10th 2012

01-03-2012, 07:20 AM	#10
afa The Forgotten Posts: 1,136 Karma: 4689999 Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: Dubai Device: Kindle Paperwhite; Nook HD; Sony Xperia Z3 Compact	Since everyone is guessing early, I'm gonna go ahead and take the later bet... I predict 18 September 2012.

01-03-2012, 10:31 PM	#11
WT Sharpe Bah, humbug! Posts: 39,072 Karma: 157049943 Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Chesapeake, VA, USA Device: Kindle Oasis, iPad Pro, & a Samsung Galaxy S9.	Wow, dude—you're off the chart! (But you may be right.)

01-06-2012, 03:30 PM	#12
tilia Evangelist Posts: 432 Karma: 1720909 Join Date: Mar 2011 Device: Voyage, K3	Hmm... I pick 29th July 2012.

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01-11-2012, 06:54 AM	#13
wannabee Media Bloke Posts: 2,382 Karma: 113956855 Join Date: Sep 2010 Location: NSW - Australia Device: iOS	Oh oh! This might be where I need to start a membership campaign!

01-12-2012, 08:36 AM	#14
HomeInMyShoes Grand Sorcerer Posts: 19,226 Karma: 67780237 Join Date: Jul 2011 Device: none	Looks like we're right on track for my guess.

01-13-2012, 11:01 AM	#15
JoelArnold Fanatic Posts: 544 Karma: 1036914 Join Date: Jun 2010 Location: Savage, MN Device: Kindle 3	I'm going to say August 1, 2012. Give or take six months...