Gartner report says Origami needs better hardware

Bob Russell · 03-15-2006, 02:22 PM

Gartner consulting has published a report called UMPC Has Promise but Is Far From Mature in which they say that it is "unlikely to succeed without key changes, including a lower price and longer battery life."

Gartner is one of the top and most respected IT consulting firms used by businesses. Their opinions, while not perfect, are well researched by experts and have the weight of authority behind them. So it is no small thing to see them come out and give expert opinion supporting our suspicions. Origami is a great idea and some of us will find it useful. But until the price goes down, and the battery life goes up, it's not really going to be a mainstream hit. Three hours battery life is worlds apart from a full day, and prices less than $400 is a whole different market than near $1,000.

Gartner concludes simply that "while the UMPC concept has promise, today's hardware cannot deliver on it." They say we're at least two years away from the sub-$400 devices with 8-hr battery life. Some of the things needed to bring success are: better content bundles, a better interface such as what Vista should bring, better text input options, simpler synchronization, and of course all the benefits that come with mass production in a strong market.

According to Gartner, with today's hardware, what we're really seeing is just the "proof of concept." But I can't help wonder if there might be a significant early market with early adopters, even for these inadequate machines.

Via GottaBeMobile

rsperberg · 03-18-2006, 02:09 PM

Based on the history of devices in this space, the Gartner evaluation is safe.

But I don't think the person doing the evaluation should be looking at the hardware.

Instead he should be connecting the appearance of the UMPC with the decline of the Palm market, with the many, many years' experience people have now had with laptops and PDAs, with the expansion of broadband and WiFi.

People know what the PDAs and laptops DON'T do well, and that's precisely where UMPC's (and Internet Tablets from Nokia) are targeting. People don't need laptop replacements, don't need full computing power, to check email, browse the web quickly, that sort of thing. They need something small enough to move around the house, stick in the car or briefcase, get some work done if necessary. Instant on. Wide enough to see a whole web page.

Sure the hardware/price aspects are not optimal. But that's probably irrelevant, Gartner.

Bob Russell · 03-18-2006, 02:26 PM

Actually, I see it a little differently, and a bit more along the lines of Gartner and (yes) Microsoft. That they are a new product category that will certainly cannibalize some sales in laptops and pdas, but in contrast to the size of the new market it will open, I don't think it will be significant. Especially relative to pdas. (If you are looking forward to when there may be technology to carry keyboard input and bigger display, like rollable screens, with the pda in your pocket then I would agree that a pda might overlap with that UMPC market, but those things are well out in the future.)

Laptops, maybe they'll be overlapped with UMPC, but it depends on how the keyboard issues is resolved. And, like Gartner, I don't see it becoming a huge seller until the specs are better and we have decent batter/price options.

But mostly, I just don't really think these are close to replacements for cell phones, pdas or smartphones. The advantage of the smallest devices are that they fit on your belt, or in your pocket/purse without bulk, so you have them with you all the time. The origami/UMPC devices are not going to be a "carry with you all the time" device, so I think that will keep the markets separate. And the very fact that pdas are so small means they will never really compete with laptops, and I don't think with Origami either.

The advantage of a UMPC is that it's easier to pick up and use than a notebook, plus it has touch input. It's going to be aimed at people who want quick and easy, grab and go. And, of course, nearly full desktop capabilities and compatibility. I think that's going to become (but is not yet) a powerful combination, especially if the keyboard issue gets resolved. For example, the cloth keyboard built into Origami cases, or even a thin keyboard that makes the Origami device a convertible into a notebook (which is what I would personally prefer).

But just like every other "expert", I'm guessing. It will take time to see what really happens. It's hard to argue that anyone's views at this point are off-base, because the future is wide open, and we don't know what the OS or hardware technologies will bring!

03-15-2006, 02:22 PM	#1
Bob Russell Recovering Gadget Addict Posts: 5,381 Karma: 676161 Join Date: May 2004 Location: Pittsburgh, PA Device: iPad	Gartner report says Origami needs better hardware Gartner consulting has published a report called UMPC Has Promise but Is Far From Mature in which they say that it is "unlikely to succeed without key changes, including a lower price and longer battery life." Gartner is one of the top and most respected IT consulting firms used by businesses. Their opinions, while not perfect, are well researched by experts and have the weight of authority behind them. So it is no small thing to see them come out and give expert opinion supporting our suspicions. Origami is a great idea and some of us will find it useful. But until the price goes down, and the battery life goes up, it's not really going to be a mainstream hit. Three hours battery life is worlds apart from a full day, and prices less than $400 is a whole different market than near $1,000. Gartner concludes simply that "while the UMPC concept has promise, today's hardware cannot deliver on it." They say we're at least two years away from the sub-$400 devices with 8-hr battery life. Some of the things needed to bring success are: better content bundles, a better interface such as what Vista should bring, better text input options, simpler synchronization, and of course all the benefits that come with mass production in a strong market. According to Gartner, with today's hardware, what we're really seeing is just the "proof of concept." But I can't help wonder if there might be a significant early market with early adopters, even for these inadequate machines. Via GottaBeMobile

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03-18-2006, 02:09 PM	#2
rsperberg Zealot Posts: 114 Karma: 10 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: NJ Device: Kindle Voyage	Based on the history of devices in this space, the Gartner evaluation is safe. But I don't think the person doing the evaluation should be looking at the hardware. Instead he should be connecting the appearance of the UMPC with the decline of the Palm market, with the many, many years' experience people have now had with laptops and PDAs, with the expansion of broadband and WiFi. People know what the PDAs and laptops DON'T do well, and that's precisely where UMPC's (and Internet Tablets from Nokia) are targeting. People don't need laptop replacements, don't need full computing power, to check email, browse the web quickly, that sort of thing. They need something small enough to move around the house, stick in the car or briefcase, get some work done if necessary. Instant on. Wide enough to see a whole web page. Sure the hardware/price aspects are not optimal. But that's probably irrelevant, Gartner.

03-18-2006, 02:26 PM	#3
Bob Russell Recovering Gadget Addict Posts: 5,381 Karma: 676161 Join Date: May 2004 Location: Pittsburgh, PA Device: iPad	Actually, I see it a little differently, and a bit more along the lines of Gartner and (yes) Microsoft. That they are a new product category that will certainly cannibalize some sales in laptops and pdas, but in contrast to the size of the new market it will open, I don't think it will be significant. Especially relative to pdas. (If you are looking forward to when there may be technology to carry keyboard input and bigger display, like rollable screens, with the pda in your pocket then I would agree that a pda might overlap with that UMPC market, but those things are well out in the future.) Laptops, maybe they'll be overlapped with UMPC, but it depends on how the keyboard issues is resolved. And, like Gartner, I don't see it becoming a huge seller until the specs are better and we have decent batter/price options. But mostly, I just don't really think these are close to replacements for cell phones, pdas or smartphones. The advantage of the smallest devices are that they fit on your belt, or in your pocket/purse without bulk, so you have them with you all the time. The origami/UMPC devices are not going to be a "carry with you all the time" device, so I think that will keep the markets separate. And the very fact that pdas are so small means they will never really compete with laptops, and I don't think with Origami either. The advantage of a UMPC is that it's easier to pick up and use than a notebook, plus it has touch input. It's going to be aimed at people who want quick and easy, grab and go. And, of course, nearly full desktop capabilities and compatibility. I think that's going to become (but is not yet) a powerful combination, especially if the keyboard issue gets resolved. For example, the cloth keyboard built into Origami cases, or even a thin keyboard that makes the Origami device a convertible into a notebook (which is what I would personally prefer). But just like every other "expert", I'm guessing. It will take time to see what really happens. It's hard to argue that anyone's views at this point are off-base, because the future is wide open, and we don't know what the OS or hardware technologies will bring!

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