Quote:
Originally Posted by murraypaul
You are basing an awful lot of precise calculations on a report that has 3 million margin of error (27%) in their guess for what the new orders are.
How reliable do you think they are?
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They obviously have incomplete information, which is why they are saying the low end of the estimate of the decrease is about 5 million screens (or 26%) and the high end is about 8 million (or 42%).
I am pretty confident -- as confident as anyone can be using media reports -- that the information is reliable. The media outlets reporting this are fairly reputable. So no matter what end of the spectrum you want to look at (26% or 42%) the decrease due to lowered demand seems fairly significant.
This all assumes defect rates of no more than about 2-3%; I think that assumption would be more than fair. And, of course, the numbers could change at any time -- either upward or downward -- based on any new report that comes out.
--Pat