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Originally Posted by Steven Lyle Jordan
Agreed: SF has always been the chihuahua of literature, which occasionally grows to the size of a Jack Russell before shrinking back to chihuahua size (which is where we are right now).
It's possible, though, that the shakeup being caused by tightening budgets and the impact the Internet is having on access and marketing may change the dynamic enough to allow SF to grow more than it ever has before. If SF figures out how to crack the marketing code, we may see it grow to... oh, maybe terrier-size in the future.
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Which time period do you think about? Locus statistics does not seem to support this. E.g:
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From the 1980s until 2000, by the Locus figures, the numbers of new fantasy and SF titles were about the same. Then the number of fantasy titles published began to steadily increase, while the SF titles stayed the same. I suspect the success of the Harry Potter and similar series are partly responsible for this.
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