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Apple aren't targeting iPhone 4 or 4S owners, sure some hard core technologists and fanbois will leap at the opportunity for a new device. The primary market segment are those iPhone 3 and 3 GS owners whose contracts are running out. Add to that those who bought Android phones two years ago and the iP5 will look plenty enticing. I bought the HTC Desire, and if I had been on a contract (I use prepaid) I would surely be tempted to take a look (but I'm happy with my Galaxy Note). Most phone owners are not entrenched in either camp, they just want something that works, doesn't drop the signal, comes with some interesting features to keep you occupied while commuting, and has a decent screen to look at. There are plenty of alternatives available from Android makers, but I don't think I have encountered an iPhone user who complains about the phone (operator? Different story). Combine hype, advertising (all operators are launching campaigns now) and user endorsement, and I don't think Cook or the others in Cupertino are particularly worried.
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