[Bob Russell]

I just saw an interesting article from AppleInsider. They share a quote from a Bloomberg interview of the Microsoft’s Robbie Bach, president of the company's Entertainment & Devices Division, who was also in charge of Microsoft's "PlaysForSure" strategy (basically a DRM and format strategy if I remember right).

In reference to Google pushing Android and selling their own phone at the same, he says

Doing both in the way they are trying to do both is actually very, very difficult. Google’s announcement sends a signal where they’re going to place their commitment. That will create some opportunities for us and we’ll pursue them.

Basically, he says that when he was in charge of "PlaysForSure", the decision to market Zune at the same time scared people away from PlaysForSure and killed it. (I'm taking a lot of liberty in summarizing, so read his original statements if you want more accuracy.)

But it seems that Microsoft has had to "laugh off" a lot of moves by competitors recently and seems to keep getting caught with it's pants down. I know I will probably lose a lot of people when I say that I like Microsoft products (but not everything about them, of course) and that I hope they succeed. It's been more than a decade since I had a Mac Plus, and I've never owned an iPod or iPhone or iMac or iShoe or whatever else they have available now. But Microsoft is starting to cause many people to wonder about their ability to deliver and compete effectively in this new world that isn't all about just the PC.

A few observations:

• I can't help but think this is more about a high level executive positioning people's perception than a statement of belief
• WinMobile 7 is rumored to have been put off again, and WinMobile is losing ground
• The Apple tablet has all the buzz right now, and Microsoft responds at CES with what? An HP tablet and no details on it.
• Microsoft search is having a lot of trouble competing with Google.
• I go to Google maps for directions, not Microsoft Maps. (And yet, I started out with a desktop PC version of Microsoft Maps and loved it back then.)
• People even seem to hate MS Windows, and even though I like Linux, I actually find Windows to be a pretty darn good product. Even Vista, believe it or not, with the exception of a few issues.

So I wouldn't put too much into it. Don't know if Nexus One will succeed, yet this doesn't cause me much worry. I'm hoping that Microsoft comes up with a great tablet solution that works for eBooks as well as other functions possible with the full Windows platform. But I'm losing confidence each year about whether they can deliver or whether someone else will end up beating them to the punch. CES and Apple's expected tablet may or may not be the way they lose the tablet wars, but eventually someone will win out if they don't come up with an answer. Ebooks together with web functionality seem to be creating a "window of opportunity" for tablets that intersects with the hardware enablers like new processors. I hope Microsoft takes advantage.

But poo-pooing and naysaying others is not likely to inspire people to wait for Microsoft solutions. It reminds me a lot of this famous unfortunate and embarrassing prediction from Palm's CEO when he claimed that Apple was going to have trouble getting into the smartphone business

"We’ve learned and struggled for a few years here figuring out how to make a decent phone,” Colligan said. “PC guys are not going to just figure this out. They’re not going to just walk in.”

What I think he forgot is that knowledge and experience flows around an industry, and lessons learned really don't stay private. He also forgot that the surrounding technologies have changed, as well as the marketplace. We may just see something similar with Google's Nexus One.

And, even better, we may see things change dramatically in the eBook market as everyone learns from Amazon and Sony and other early leaders in the eBook race. Question is whether Amazon and Sony will stick their heads in the ground and let others take over with new ideas and screen types and form factors and multipurpose devices, etc. Or will they come with a renewed effort to innovate and survive. Surely Sony has learned something by the withering of their dominance with Walkman products and the rise of iPods.

Will Google succeed in the phone space? Will Sony and Amazon survive the eBook and tablet wars? Will Microsoft stay relevant? I don't know. There's a lot of luck and hard work and risk involved. And while it's easy to be an armchair quarterback, these wars take a master general with the right strategy and intelligence, and some properly trained troops and the right technology. But this is why it's so fascinating to watch the early phases of an industry. Once things shake out, all the fun is gone!