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Originally Posted by Mike Elgan
So many predictions about the future have failed because futurists tend to overemphasize the possible over the desirable. They give too much weight to technology and not enough to human nature.
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Well said, Mike.
Other such predictions:
- The paperback book will never be good for anything but smut.
- MP3s won't catch on because of their inferior sound quality to CDs.
- CDs will never catch on because of their inferior sound quality to LPs.
- Man will never be able to type on anything smaller than a standard keyboard.
- Man will never be able to survive travelling at speeds in excess of 30mph.
- No colony will ever declare independence from its mother country.
- The automobile will never replace the horse and cart.
- Man will never fly.
- Man will never escape the Earth.
- Mankind will only ever need 3 computers.
Unfortunately, too many "futurists" tend to make absolute assumptions based on subjective data.
E-books have failed to "catch on" simply due to a lack of a compelling marketing program. They have a long way to go to improve, in battery life, display quality, price, and standardization... all of those things will be accomplished.
People will see the value of carrying their entire library of books, magazines, newspapers, comic books and graphic novels in their hand, absolutely anywhere they might go.
That's all, folks.