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I think the author is exaggerating, but the loss of shelf space is a genuine concern for publishers, large and small.
Consider the trajectory of the music industry:
• The industry was padded for years off of reselling CD's to consumers who had vinyl or tape versions.
• Digital music is introduced (via piracy).
• Digital sales are introduced, and gradually increase.
• CD sales gradually decline, though they are still around 40% of sales.
• Chain stores close.
• Indie stores do not fill the gap, though some are still doing fine.
• Music labels are consolidating and/or going bankrupt.
• Artist revenues for recorded music have nearly evaporated. Some big artists and labels have made up for the losses with tours and merchandise; smaller artists, as far as I know, have not had that luxury.
Books may not follow the exact same trajectory, and several factors (pro and con) are different.
- It was commercial options, not piracy, that brought ebooks into the mainstream.
- Unlike CDs, end-users can't easily convert paper books to digital form. So, there may be a wave of re-purchasing ebooks that did not occur with the transition from CD to digital.
- Unlike musicians, authors don't have alternate revenue streams. I.e. if book/ebook sales decline, authors will directly suffer.
- Most music stores didn't have the kind of browsing experience that bookstores offer.
– When music retailers closed, there were two big online music retailers -- Apple (digital) and Amazon (CD's). If B&N closes up, Amazon will utterly dominate both the digital and physical book market.
My best guess, for what it's worth, is...
∴ Book sales will decline somewhat, though not as much as music did.
∴ There will be some consolidation, and the loss of many mid-sized and small publishers, and lots of authors will lose publisher support.
∴ There will be a glut of self-published works (some good, mostly garbage).
∴ Amazon will gain unprecedented control over an entire medium, in both digital and paper formats, for at least a decade.
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