I don't think the melodramatic '5 minutes to go 'til extinction!' headlines will come true, but there are some less-than-rosy truths in the meat of these articles. I wonder if a better analogy for the future isn't going to be 'I still use a dedicated camera, phone and laptop', but photographic film's survival being used by really passionate people in the face of the ubiquity and ease of digital imagery.
I don't think it's going to be a feasible model to sell the reader at cost-price and rely on the e-store for income. Only the biggest two players can even contemplate this future, and it's only really workable if they lock people in with harsh DRM.
For the moment, I don't think that there's a massive demographic out there who would be willing to switch to ebooks. I look at friends who read and are technologically literate, but they just wouldn't get excited enough to go out and buy one, even if it cost $100.
There is, however, a much bigger demographic of potential customers than is currently being exploited. Out of the people I know, those who'd get the most out of a dedicated e-reader, and who would consider the current price good value, are over 40. Manufacturers have a problem that (at least here in the UK) there's been very little exposure so far to e-ink devices, perhaps particularly of those people who are middle-aged and higher.
Look at this product:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/100-Classic-.../dp/B001LK6XKE
Download 100 books from Project Gutenburg, put them onto a device with a poor screen that's intended for an entirely different purpose, run glossy adverts targeting the over 55s in Reader's Digest - I wonder how much money Nintendo's marketing department made with that scam? If it's so easy to market a poor product, then why aren't manufacturers running successful marketing campaigns for e-readers? The clock may well now be ticking for them if they don't... .
Really, the e-reader manufacturers need to make a big push to get trial devices into bookshops (and libraries?) where people can try them. Their best selling points are that it's more comfortable to read than a book, the text is on a par with that of p-books (better, if you prefer larger print) and battery life. It's barely like using a 'soulless' electronic device at all and you can say goodbye to getting rid of a quarter of your p-books each year to make house-room.
Currently, people don't even know what e-ink is and that it's different from reading on a back-lit computer screen.
Apple sat on their hands for years ignoring the nascent e-book market. It would be a shame if they can now persuade customers that they shouldn't be interested in having a better device to read on. There's a danger that (the majority of) those who buy an iPad will buy a few books and read on it for a couple of months while it's still an exciting gadget, then go back to p-books and think 'I don't know how I ever thought an electronic device might replace
proper books'.