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Old 06-23-2010, 03:46 AM   #24
pdurrant
The Grand Mouse 高貴的老鼠
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Quote:
Originally Posted by obs20 View Post
Wait a minute! Have you ever played 3 card monte?
They will always turn over an empty cup and try to suck you into a larger bet. This is not charity, once your money is on the table the odds are 3 to 1 They know that at this point even though the odds may seem to be even money the overall odds still remain at 3 to 1 because you put your money on the table in the first place.
Let's look at it this way they get your money on the table and pay 2 to 1 on a 3 to 1 chance. They have to make money. If you increase your stake then it's just good money going after bad.
If you ever really play it, you'll lose money, because the people running the game will be cheating.

But in this honest version, your analysis is faulty.

Spoiler:
In the first scenario, doubling your stake and switching turns it from a losing game into a break-even game. Really.
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