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I do find it striking that eight months ago the press was writing Kindle's epitaph in the face of an expected crippling onslaught from the Nook. A similar frenzy took place reporting the inevitable death of Kindle after the release of the iPad. No doubt we will hear later this summer or early fall how the Kindle will close its doors due to the latest expected Android tablet.
I'm not convinced the sustainable market for a CE device like an e-reader is with CE manufacturers -- this is the missing piece. Apple is not so foolish to position the $800 iPad as an "e-reader"; it's a multimedia playback device that allows you to take content anywhere -- and, in particular, video content. It also happens to be an e-reader and to the extent that Apple can leverage its iTunes infrastructure so much the better for shareholders.
Until Amazon entered the market with a dedicated device tied to a robust supply of content, e-readers were going nowhere. We tend to forget that Sony was first to market and with devices which have advanced features and the cachet of the Sony brand. Yet it took Amazon's presence to legitimize the category.
Over-promise and under-deliver is, of course, the theme of the industry roll-out to date. Kobo is only the second device to emerge that seems to have re-thought how to get and hold a significant longer term share: strip down to the basics, including the price to the consumer; tie the device to a credible source of content; and ensure distribution to a wide audience (Chapters, Borders, Whitecoulls, Wal-mart, online). Barnes and Noble's Nook, in contrast, is only available in the US six months after launch and its e-books cannot be sold outside of that market either, losing opportunities to feed non-Nook devices.
In the meantime, while iPad frenzy has taken the wind out of the sales of the e-reader wannabes -- before and after launch -- Amazon has not sat back waiting to have a stake driven through its Kindle. It has aggressively expanded into non-US markets; broadened distribution of the hardware into bricks and mortar stores (think of that: a remarkable move for Bezos whose empire is built on online only); built out support for non-English texts; broadened and sweetened its indie deals; increased the capabilities of Kindles already in customers' hands (like turning on web access outside of the US); embracing social networking and leveraging the Amazon bookstore community by enabling some interaction from device to store in shared comments and highlights; and apparently preparing for a Kindle 3.
Just as remarkable in this same time period is the utter lack of response from Sony -- no new models, no new partnerships, complete quiet during the "Agency Model" fiasco, and no hints of anything head turning on the horizon.
It does make one wonder what the e-reader landscape will look like after the dust settles following December 2010 holiday sales.
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