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Well, I may have found the answer but probabilities still confuse me. 1/2 seems to me as valid as 1/3, and alternative solutions proposed for the third stage sounded equally valid from a specific viewpoint.
I don't really see why the exact same information would produce different probability results depending on how you got the information. The hard facts we get from the Scientific American puzzle and pdurrant's puzzle are exactly the same. Does it really matter how they are presented?
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