Quote:
Originally Posted by dmaul1114
Dedicated readers may become a smaller niche (or just not get much bigger than they already are). But there will be devices out there to cater to that niche, and that's all that really matters.
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Agreed.
However...
Way too many people are willing to relegate dedicated reader gadgets to niche-dom too quickly, methinks.
The value proposition of optimized/single function devices is generally very cost-dependent. Today's leading readers (in sales volume and mind-share, as opposed to features or performance) are Kindle, Sony, and Nook and they live primarily in the $250 range. When folks talk of multi-function gadgets crowding out dedicated readers, they are for the most part comparing tomorrows low-cost tablets (and the iPad) to currently-shipping dedicated readers, which are essentially 2009 products at 2009 prices.
At a minimum, we should see what the 2010 products look like and how even the older designs ride the price curve. We've already seen the Sony PRS300 hit US$169 list and sale prices of around $129. We've seen the Jetbook lite (repeatedly) hit the magical $99 price point and its sibling hit $129. If we truly see Android tablets hit the $100 price point this year (I'm not holding my breath, but the Pandigital tablet is supposed to hit $180 upon general release in June, so...) imagine what the exact same economics can do with eink which requires less battery power (and thus smaller, cheaper batteries) and can survive in thinner, lighter (cheaper) casings. If Sony (who are anything but low-cost vendors) can make the PRS300 to list for $169 in early 2010, surely other volume vendors can just as easily hit $149 list or even $99.
Now, how does the champion "spork" (I like that analogy) tablet rank against a $99 dedicated reader? Heavier, lower battery life, indoor use only, and costing 4-8 times more? Last time I looked, half of all media players sold were *media-playback-only* (even in Apple's lineup), not PDA wannabes. And that is in a mature, stable market. Hardly a niche.
Color may be nice for magazines and book covers, maybe digital comics. But the bulk of the publishing industry is still good old-fashioned plain text fiction and essays. Black and white.
I'm thinking that even after the prophesied flood of spork tablets arrives, even after color eink arrives, B&W eink will still hold firm as the reader display tech of choice for price and quality of display for years to come.
The press will, as they are wont to, focus on the features of the high-end color pads (the Ferraris and BMWs of the business) but the readers, both dedicated and casual, will focus on the value leaders (the Accords and Fusions) and those will do nicely for themselves and their customers.
The shock isn't that Amazon is going to focus on their readers, but that anybody thought otherwise. After all, Amazon is in the bookselling business, not in the advertising business like Google or the mobility business like Apple.
Sometimes, the best news of all is no news.
