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Black market sales would happen, but probably not to a huge extent IMO.
The iPad is hard to find around here--my g/f was unable to get one for a friend in another country before leaving for her trip today.
But it's not something like the Nintendo Wii a few years ago that was very tough to find for months. Just a matter of ordering online, or getting on the list at the local Apple store and waiting a couple weeks.
I think most would do that rather than pay more than MSRP--especially since it's not the holiday season where people want it before x-mas etc.
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