Quote:
Originally Posted by Trubu
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The RealPlayer thing was probably an overstatement - I don't expect Flash to disappear entirely, and it's possible that it could maintain a strong presence in certain areas, like casual gaming. But 10 years from now, it will be nowhere near the pervasive presence it is now, and the web will be better for it.
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This, Trubu, is a perfectly reasonable assessment. I think developers will use whatever tools are easier, most capable and allow them to reaches the right, or the widest, audience. But Flash will most likely coexist with HTML5 for the foreseeable future. Who knows what the web will be like in 10 years?
What disturbs me, though, is the insistence that the banning of Flash and Java from the iPad is a good thing. It has nothing to do with the gradual replacement of Flash Video with H.264, but with Apple's goal of monetizing everything within its walled garden.
As noted in the Free Software Foundation letter I cited above, H.264 is proprietary.
Many who have given some thought to the push for H.264, fear that at some point in the not too distant future, when H.264 is an established "standard" (in the same fashion as Flash Video is now), the patent holders will impose licensing fees.
If licensing fees are imposed for the de facto standard, it will effectively preclude the development of any non-commercial browsers.
Which means, that without competition, commercial browser providers can easily make alliances with content providers (Apple is already both), and achieve the old goal of monetizing the browser ecosystem, which may not necessarily be in the interests of consumers.
So, while I like H.264 as a codec, I am not celebrating the replacement of one proprietary video format with another.
The big hope has been that Google will release VP8 as open source, and according to
NewTeeVee, it looks like this may be happening.
But with the fanboys whipped into a H.264 frenzy by Jobs, I am not certain the idea of open video even registers with the mob.