Quote:
Originally Posted by kennyc
Dennis, I'm not saying it is going to be easy, but things definitely have to change. And it's not going to follow the traditional model as you've layed out in your argument. The dinosaurs no longer exist, soon the mega publishers won't exist either. Look at what has happened in the music industry. It will be similar.
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It can't be similar for the foreseeable future.
There are two factors: first, music is now digital. The music industry is attempting to come to grips with the fact that it can be easily copied and shared. In addition, the model for the artists is changing. It used to be that the album was the product, and a gig was something a band did to promote the current album. These days, I think that's reversing. I have an old friend who is the leader of a popular indie band. They've had a couple of major label releases, and a slew of indie CDs. He'd like you to buy the CDs, but if you rip them to MP3 and share them with your friends, fine by him. His band makes its living touring, and the more people who hear their music, the more who will pay to see them when they come to play.
Books are still mainly paper. Unless they get ebook editions, they can't be conveniently copied and shared (and the number of folks who read ebooks is still a small fraction of the market.) And the authors are relying on the sales of books to make money. They don't have the option of going on tour and playing gigs.
I don't see the mega publishers going away. They became mega publishers in the first place as part of an ongoing effort to
survive. In any line of business, as the industry matures, size matters. The little guys probably can't compete.
The biggest issue the industry is wrestling with is imbalance in supply and demand. There are simply too many books chasing too few readers. Publishers have gone through waves of wrenching readjustments as they trimmed their lines, taking actions that arguably should have been done earlier but no one wanted to the the first. It will continue in one way or another until a balance is reached.
Another problem which is resulting in wrenching readjustments is the ownership structure of the industry. Many large houses were purchased by media conglomerates who had holdings in film, radio, TV, and music, and saw synergies from having all forms of content under one roof. It's falling apart because the synergies are elusive, and book publishing
can't make as much money as other media. Conglomerates are unloading their publishing assets (witness Time Warner selling Warner Books to Hachette who relaunched it as Grand Central Publishing) because they can't make the returns on investment they require.
I wouldn't want to be an independent publisher at the moment. And I wouldn't want to be an author trying to make my
living writing books unless I had a deal with a major house.
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Dennis