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Old 03-25-2010, 10:07 AM   #14
Ben Thornton
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Posts: 900
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Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: UK
Device: Kindle 3, iPad 2 (but not for e-books)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kali Yuga View Post
If ebooks continue to grow by around 2.5% per year, it could take 18 years for ebooks to capture 50% of the market.
But the growth isn't linear, as has been pointed out. What is happenening is made clear by some pictures:

Amazon vs. bricks and mortar:


eBook wholesale sales:


People are moving to on-line purchase of paper books, and e-book growth is explosive - which is natural in that context. It could take 18 years for e-books to capture 50% of the market, but the slow linear growth that you're suggesting looks unlikely.

I think that we're seeing explosive growth to a plateau - the $64million question is: where is the plateau? Put another way, what percentage of reading is likely to move to a reader any time soon?
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