Quote:
Originally Posted by Kali Yuga
If ebooks continue to grow by around 2.5% per year, it could take 18 years for ebooks to capture 50% of the market.
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But the growth isn't linear, as has been pointed out. What is happenening is made clear by some pictures:
Amazon vs. bricks and mortar:
eBook wholesale sales:
People are moving to on-line purchase of paper books, and e-book growth is explosive - which is natural in that context. It
could take 18 years for e-books to capture 50% of the market, but the slow linear growth that you're suggesting looks unlikely.
I think that we're seeing explosive growth to a plateau - the $64million question is: where is the plateau? Put another way, what percentage of reading is likely to move to a reader any time soon?