Quote:
Originally Posted by Kali Yuga
OK, so in theory ebook sales went from ~$12m in January 2008 to $32m in January 2009. In the interim, book sales overall dropped 0.7%, or $6 million, and stores open at least 1 year saw revenues drop by 1.9%.
It's difficult to draw any definitive conclusions though, since book sales will obviously be influenced by numerous factors, including bookstore closures and changes in the broader economic environment.
If we take January to be a typical month, ebooks are still less than 4% of the market in the US, compared to 1.4% last year. It's so small that they don't break down ebook sales by category yet. If ebooks continue to grow by around 2.5% per year, it could take 18 years for ebooks to capture 50% of the market.
While I concur that ebooks are likely to continue to grow (and faster than in 2009): Given all the attention and changes in the industry lately, and keeping in mind its small percentage of revenues, it is slightly ridiculous to suggest that publishers are "not taking ebooks seriously."
Also, while I concur that $3 billion per quarter in losses due to piracy is unlikely, nothing in these specific figures or its methodology has anything to do with piracy. Ergo we can't draw any conclusions about piracy, or its effect on sales, based solely on the AAP's figures.
|
I'm sorry, but your post is a numeric mess. Let's start from the top.
E-book sale were up 261% from 2008 to 2009. If they went up another 261% from 2009 to 2010, they would increase their market share from 4% to 10.5%. (Assuming the paper market remains flat. Looking over the past 10 years, this is not an unreasonable assumption.) One more year at 261% growth would put e-books at 27.5% of the market.
Am I saying the growth rate will remain this high. I have no idea. But e-books are in a explosive growth curve and are rapidly reaching the total volume to make this curve meaningful to the entire business.