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one of the basic problems with flash on a mobile platform that doesn't contain a constant physical keyboard and mouse input (i.e. iPhone, iPod Touch, iPad, many other smartphones) is the variations in input.
what i mean is that most elaborate flash sites (i.e. flash content that isn't just video or ads) are built from the ground up with the implication of a standard keyboard & mouse interface. most of them have actions that pop up or change by simply mousing over (hovering without clicking) or possibly have direct input via specific keyboard presses (like same flash games, etc.). this is a prime example of how flash simply does not translate to touchscreen devices well in many cases.
as much as i loathe flash, i run a business and the main portion of my main website is encoded entirely in flash. unfortunately, its a necessary evil of the industry of my business (90% use flash for their websites entirely), but needless to say i've felt a growing need over the past 2 years for changing this issue. my last website revision last year added an iPhone/iPod touch specific version, but it will look terrible on an iPad's big screen. the only real solution is HTML5. like i mentioned above, my site looks very nice all in flash on a normal desktop or laptop computer, but using a touchscreen interface, to navigate all of the flash it would be very hard to comfortably do. most users would probably get frustrated and go away which is the exact opposite of what i want a potential client to do and the problem is clearly the entirely flash interface.
HTML5 IS a web standard. just because its not supported by Internet Explorer (not arguably, the worst web browser out there... why do you think ballmer himself has toyed with the idea of completely trashing the microsoft made IE engine to switch to WebKit??), that doesn't mean it can't be a standard. the internet has moved on from IE and shouldn't have to wait for them to catch up. Mozilla (Firefox, Camino, etc.), Google (Chrome), Apple (WebKit: Safari, Android, WebOS, RIM's browser), and Opera... they all "get it". HTML5 is the face of the new internet, with or without flash.
the debate over Ogg Theora vs. h264 can easily be made moot with an excellent HTML5 video player like SublimeVideo by Jilion. though i suspect that eventually firefox will add h.264 support, possibly simply because they don't want to be the odd one out. as it is, h.264 will remain fee-less for free internet video through 2016.
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