Quote:
Originally Posted by Kali Yuga
Anyone who insists they know how the landscape will look in 20 years is a fool.  That said....
I have no idea what specific organizations will be around. However, I suspect that in many ways, things will look fairly similar to they way they are now: a handful of big publishers and big retailers, and a diversity of smaller organizations, with most of the public buying big hits. AFAIK this is the way it has been for decades. For example, smaller specialty music labels like Stax, Motown, Chess, Nonesuch, Impulse and so forth were doing business whilst giants like Warner, EMI, Columbia were much larger.
And [url=http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14959982]big hits aren't getting killed by the Internet. Apparently both the blockbusters and the "long tail" (obscure low-selling titles) are doing better, and mid-range titles are losing out.
Anyway, the reality is that the overwhelming number of writers simply cannot or will not want to write, edit, proofread, format, promote, market, retail, shop movie rights and manage their works single-handed -- especially those who aspire to "blockbuster" status. For example, as distribution costs fall, more books written by amateurs and aspiring pros will be published; getting noticed amidst that froth will become increasingly difficult. So while ebooks will likely cut out one intermediary (namely, book distributors), there will always be a role for publishers and retailers.
And of course, what works well for Baen will not necessarily work for larger or different organizations. Baen has a specific genre and an existing brand identity, and as such they (and similar organizations like Harlequin or O'Reilly) have better options for side-stepping retailers and thus reducing costs. However, they still lose sales opportunities by not being on the "virtual shelves" and getting tagged with the "if you like X, try Y" recommendation engines, for example. More critically, this approach won't work if the publisher wants to publish a diverse range of books, and thus cannot build much of a brand identity.
So while I do not know how the future will work, I find the idea that "Baen is a blueprint for the future" has a limited utility. |
Me, I'm a cold-blooded mercenary about the publishing business. Who's consistently making money and who's not. Who's market share is increasing and who's not.
Any business in any industry who's both increasing market share and being profitable while doing so, is doing something right. That's investing 101. Anyone who wants to grow a business should pay attention to
why such a business is succeeding. It may be applicable.
This is particularly important in the digital I.P. business. It is currently in a deflationary phase, because the end customer,
who is the only one who matters is not willing to pay the prices the producers say they need.
There are only two answers to this impasse. One, the customer will grow so desperate for the product they will pay a higher price, (which I consider unlikely in large enough quantities to meet the producers costs) or; Two, the producer will have to find a way to reduce their costs to make a profit at the prices the end customers find acceptable. Because the firms that
already have are in a position to slowly take end customers away from the big boys. Look at GM from 1970 to date. From the biggest carmaker in the world to a bankrupt basket case. And I'm certain that no one would have picked Toyota and Honda to eat the American big three's lunch in 40 years, either. But Toyota and Honda were small, growing, and profitable, with an eye to expand with their profits. I can't believe that O'Reilly, Harequin and Baen, will stay as small as they are today...