[Harmon]

Here's the way I see it, solely from the perspective of people who will be reading ebooks on the devices:

(1) Mac owners

a. If you own a Mac, but not an iPhone, you will definitely buy an iPad rather than a Kindle DX. But you might buy a Kindle2 rather than an iPad, because the K2 is cheaper and a bit more portable.

b. If you own a Mac and an iPhone, you will definitely buy an iPad rather than a KDX, and you will probably buy an iPad rather a K2. The reason is that you already have a portable ereader, the iPhone, which does what the K2 does.

(2) PC owners

a. if you don't own an iphone, you will probably buy either Kindle rather than an iPad. The reason is that you will regard the Kindles as easier to use. You can make purchases via your computer, and they will just show up on your Kindle. With the iPad, you will either have to have a wireless setup at home, or buy the G3 which over time is much more costly than owning a Kindle.

b. if you own an iPhone, you will probably buy an iPad rather than either Kindle. The reasons are that the ease of use factor is overcome by your existing relationship with the iPhone, and because your iPhone is your truly portable reader. So the question will be whether to get a KDX for your home reader, or the iPad, when the price is the same and you already own all those apps.

(3) Non-owners

Readers who don't own a Mac or a PC are more likely to buy either Kindle for the simple reason that the iPad brings with it an annual G3 connection cost of $180 a year under the cheapest plan. This means that over 1 year, the K2 costs 259 to own, the KDX costs 489, and the iPad costs 809. Over 3 years, the K2 costs 259 to own, the KDX costs 489, and the iPad costs 1169. All that extra money can be spent on books!

So it seems to me that the essential question is, does the buyer already own an iPhone, or, if not, a Mac? These are people who are already within the Apple Universe, and the gravitational pull of the iPhone/Mac will mean that the iPad purchase is the best fit.

Outside the Apple Universe, sales of the iPad to readers is much less likely. There is no great incentive for these people to buy an iPad over a KDX. In fact, the incentives are in Amazon's favor.

Bottom line: it will never be "over." Amazon will lose a lot of potential KDX sales to Mac owners. and some K2 sales, but to some extent, these will be offset by the existence of the Kindle app on the iPad. In fact, I suspect that a lot of Sony Bookstore sales will become Amazon sales unless Sony gets its act together real quick, lowers its prices, and sells a Sony app. It's anecdotal, but I own Sony Readers and an iPhone, and a quick check shows me that while I have the same number of free books on the Sonys as on the iPhone, I have more purchased books on the iPhone via the Kindle app than on the Sonys.