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I think that sales of the Pad will be slower than normal for a new Apple product, but will gather steam as its multiple uses become clear. The main barrier is the cost, which even though cheaper than expected, is still a hunk of bucks.
I expect that what's going to happen is that there will be Pads for all kinds of different things - different ecologies centering around different subsets of Apps based on different functions. There will be the ReadingPad, and the MoviePad, and the TravelPad, and the MedicalPad, and the GamerPad - etc & etc.
What's going to sell Pads is the new Pad oriented Apps that developers will come up with built around those ecologies. That will take some time.
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