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I spoke to a local magazine publisher recently, who told me that they "know e-books are the future," and are essentially still trying to figure out how it's all going to shake out. So clearly, there are those publishers that are actively trying to work out a way to deliver their material in e-text form. This suggests your Point #3, that they want to do it, but they don't know how, and they're not exactly tripping over themselves to work it out.
Often in cases where technology is pushing a new business dynamic, the established companies move too slowly... while a start-up or small-but-hungry company takes the real plunge and establishes the new dynamic. Then the old companies find themselves forced into adopting the new dynamic as-is, and/or trying to change or co-opt it for their own purposes. (As an example, the American auto industry after the 70s gas crisis found themselves losing market share to small Japanese companies, forcing them to build the compacts that they had resisted, AND to lobby the federal government to create an atmosphere conducive to SUVs, their bid to pass on superior technology and regain American interest through emotional marketing.)
In publishing, established authors maintain the big publishers' access to the market. But a popular enough startup, say, one with a new author or title that becomes very mass-market popular, can induce authors to switch to other publishers. As contracts expire, as old titles lose their luster or market relevance, and as older authors retire, we could see this over time.
Regarding price, there has been much discussion over whether the dominant price of a book is tied up in the institution preparing it, or the process of printing and distributing it. Ultimately, this discussion may turn out to be pointless... because if the market decides on a price that they will accept, the industry will be forced to adopt its business model to accommodate it. Thus, larger institutions may have to cut back on printing in favor of e-distribution, slim down their workforce, farm work to cheaper markets, cut back on services, or all of the above, in order to bring internal costs down.
My take on this--call it Point #5--is that the biggest thing slowing this whole process down is the Tower of E-Babel. Publishers are overly cautious, even the ones who want to act, because they don't know what formats to pick. Reducing the various formats to 1 or 2 good formats (say, one for dedicated readers and one for multi-use devices like PDAs and smartphones) will give the publishers much of the information they need to PICK A PROCESS and run with it.
The recent publisher endorsings of Adobe DE may therefore be the first step in starting the real evolution of e-books into a major market force.
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